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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
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10,776 members, 15 online
Newest member: billfry
September 15
Market Direction
by  United States dcramer29 | 1 Comment

If the $emw (small caps) leads the $SPX (large caps)...then another decent pullback is getting ready to break out.

SPX is consolidating nicely signaling the potential for a big move. The EMW has already started breaking down...-0.90% today.

Going to hang out in the G for a few days and try to jump on a pull back once the EMW gets close to it's 200 day moving average.

Despite waiting for the S fund to hug the 200 day moving average, I will go into the C fund as it seems less volatile to the downside compared to the smaller caps.

September 15
Prices for Sep 12 Not Updated
by  United States Tomanyiron | 5 Comments

As of 4 am Monday morning we still have no account updates for Friday.

September 13
What is "Account Balance by Contribution" ??
by  United States T-Rex | 7 Comments

2014 09 13

What is "Account Balance by Contribution" ??

What IT IS NOT...Account Balance By Contribution IS NOT a breakdown running balance of total deposits into each fund from the account start date.

How do I see this.
I have made different contributions to different funds at different times...
...therefore I would have some percentage of total account balance in each total.
I can switch the DATE and click "GO"
Last week I had adjusted my interfund alternate fund reflect $0.00

So my question is....
What logical viewpoint would I have by looking at a Snapshot of my Account from the perspective of a "DATE" when I click "GO" ...
...the data returned to me is not representative of what has "ACTUALLY" contributed to those funds.

Employee Traditional; Agency Auto; Agency Matching appear to be a reverse calc of the "REAL" "Total" and nothing more...which were derived from my "DISTRIBUTION of Account" on the "Account Balance By Fund".

Employee Traditional > 63%

Agency Auto 1% > 7%

Agency Matching > 29%
TOTAL 100% (roughly..)

So, what am I missing.....??

If you go to Account Balance By Contribution it will use today's date (or the last known date with share prices) and generate totals at the bottom of the column for each Employee Traditional; Agency Auto; Agency Matching. ...




Surely I am not the only one to inquire about this...

There has to be some reason ...historically... that this tab is inside a plan that is managing Trillions of american dollars.... other than an attempt of ignorant intimidation toward clients.

frustrated, please provide insight as I hope I am having a KS error (Key-Seat error)



September 12
Bull Flag on the SPY Daily?
by  United States - Virginia TSP_MVP | 1 Comment

It'll be interesting to see where price heads from here. There has been controlled consolidation going on, and I expect a big move is coming. Hopefully upward! Watch for price action to break above the upper line of the flag for confirmation.

September 11
1 out of 99 Reasons I'm Bearish Now
by  United States Tomanyiron | 20 Comments Symbol: $OEXA200R
Name: S&P-100’s Percent of Stocks above 200 Day Moving Average (EOD)
First Data Point: Dec 28, 2001

Description: This index measures the degree of participation or breadth. It is one of many “market indicators” that measures internal strength or weakness in the S&P 100. Calculation is straight forward. Simply divide the number of stocks above their 200-day moving average by the total number of stocks in the index. It fluctuates between zero percent and one hundred percent with 50% as the centerline.

Where’s the Signal? Currently (EOD 9/10/14) 84% of stocks are trading above their 200 DMA. That doesn’t sound so bad unless you been watching it a while. Two weeks ago it was up near 90%, and has been zig-zaging down since. But the most telling sighs are what some of the technical indicators are doing. The MACD had a bearish crossover on Aug 29. The Slow STO crossed under the centerline on Sep 9. The same day the Parabolic SAR also signaled sell. This is only one out of many “triggers” I have back-looked to see if it is reliable. I believe it deserves a spot on the 99 list.

September 10
FYI: Contrarian Indicator? - See This MarketWatch Article
by  United States - Pennsylvania Sptms2086 | 1 Comment


1.a. Michael Sincere (Columnist) has written an article on the MarketWatch website entitled: "Opinion: Almost no one believes the stock market will fall". The article was posted on 09 SEP at the following web address: ... MW_popular

b. A contrarian investor might see euphoric headlines like this as one possible indicator that the stock market is actually headed for a fall. Here are some brief excerpts from

- "A contrarian trader believes that the people who say the market is going up do so only when they are fully invested and have no further purchasing power. At this point, the market is at a peak."

- "Put simply - if you follow the herd, you will be led to the slaughterhouse."

- Contrarian traders "swim against the current, and assume the market is usually wrong at both its extreme lows and highs. The more prices swing, the more misguided they believe the rest of the market to be."

c. My point is to be aware of the contrarian trading perspective, and to hopefully avoid (or minimize) financial losses when this bull market either has a correction (drops 10%) or becomes a bear market (drops 20% or greater).

Best wishes for good luck with your investing!

September 09
Retiring Dec. 31, 2014, But My Plan Isn't Working
by  United States - Florida Lafrinere | 21 Comments

As stated in the subject title, I am retiring at the end of this year. I will be 50 years old and taking the early retirement offered to Air Traffic Controllers. Yes, I could stay until I am 56, but I surely don't want to. My regular retirement should bring in just over 60k per year and a side business that should bring in about 40k per year, so I should be okay (still have to pay for health and life insurances, taxes, living expenses, autos, etc).

I still owe about 140k on my house, but my plan was to have it sold by the time I retired and bought a different house on the river (New Smyrna Beach, Fl.). I would have had to take some money out of TSP to pay off the new house (it will cost more than the one I am in now). As it stands now, I will have to take 140k out of TSP to pay off the old house (worth 300k) when I retire, then when I sell it and buy the new house I will still need to pay some (about 50k) out of pocket for the new house (guessing the new house worth about 350k). That will have to come from my TSP also. As many of you already know, there are limitations on how often you can make changes after you retire: once a year and never if you choose a annuity. :?: :idea: How am I gonna pull that one off?

:( After all the adding and subtracting and house selling and buying, I will only have about 250k left in my TSP.

I would like to be able to continue contributing money into my retirement account with a business that I own, but in TSP I cannot do that. Also, I would like to be able to IFT and take out money any time I want to. I have been told that there are IRAs out there that I can roll over into that will allow me to do just that. I was recently given advice to hire a "pay per service business adviser", so as not to get conned into something stupid. :?: Got any ideas?

:? Looking at retirement (coming up really fast) is a little scary when you don't have a rock solid plan.

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