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TSP Center Data Call for week of September 06, 2015:            

TSP Center - The Thrift Savings Plan Community
"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
--- Member Statistics ---
12,027 members, 14 online
Newest member: MoneyBot
September 05
Update the seasonal calculator?
by  United States phalanx | 0 Comments

Can someone update the seasonal calculator please? It ends in 2012. Would love to see it applied to 2013 and 2014 also. I use it as a general framework not a Strategy per se, but find it quite enlightening.

September 04
Single-Day Trading
by  United States nrialto | 8 Comments

Does anyone here ever IFT into a fund for only one day in an attempt to make a quick one-day gain? If so, could you explain your strategy and what day of the week you feel is best to do it.

September 04
by  United States - Georgia snaffu | 1 Comment


TSU posted market update that you should be able to access..

The first 6 min is talking about a new training class, after that they provide a market update...

Market update

The first person who tries the link, Let me know if you can/cant see the vid... pls.

September 03
Thoughts on the August Jobs report due Friday?
by  United States - Washington DC NotSoGood | 0 Comments

Wondering if anyone has a strong feeling one way or the other how the fed will react to the jobs report coming out Friday. ... /71629450/

"Investors are also bracing for the release of the August U.S. jobs report on Friday. A lot is riding on this employment report, as a very strong report could give the Fed further ammunition to raise short-term interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Despite warnings from the International Monetary Fund that the Fed should hold off on hiking rates, a continuation of good economic data in the U.S. will make the Fed's decision that much more difficult. The Fed will have to weigh the recent global market turbulence and economic weakness in China with an improving economy here at home."

September 03
Wisdom of the Crowd
by  United States GFCSI | 4 Comments

YouTube Link

If you try to guess the number of jelly beans in a large jar, you will likely be off by a wide margin. So will most other people. However, if you average the guesses of 20 or more people, you will be astonishingly accurate.

I'm following the top 20 FantasyTSP leaders in the 360-day and 180-day categories, though the actual total number is only 28, since many overlap. My Watch List then averages the total contributions of all, giving me the same wisdom of the crowd.

I'm not going to blindly follow it. In fact, I'm surprised to find the combined G/F funds comprise only 68% of the average contributions (C/S/I are 11/15/6%, respectively). I'm more bearish and will stay in the G fund for now, but will continue to use this as one of the many tools for future allocations.

September 02
Strategy Question About G Contributions Then Buying Low
by  United States bsibary | 9 Comments

I'm sure this question has been asked before, but I can't seem to enter the right search criteria to find a related post. I was thinking about allocating my bi-weekly contributions to the G Fund and then buying into C and S during low times. Since the G Fund doesn't move much, it would act as a piggy bank until I want to buy in at lower share prices vs. bi-weekly contributes buying C and S when their prices are high.

Any thoughts?

September 02
Moving Average & Volatility Filters To Determine TSP Trades
by  United States - Washington DC skiehawk11 | 2 Comments

Hey everyone,

It's been a while since I've posted a trade strategy proposal for the TSP. The strategy returns 11.4 percent annualized over approximately 28 years compared to buy and hold which averaged 4.6 percent annualized. As a caveat, I used log returns instead of the standard (P1-P0)/P0.

Log Return Explanation

Below are the parameters and the resulting chart:

Index Used: Russell 2000 (^RUT)
Data: Monthly Returns from Yahoo
Date Range: September 10, 1987 - September 1, 2015
Starting Balance: 1,000 dollars

Filters Used:
* 10 month EMA;
* standard deviation of returns modified to reflect whether the standard deviation was negative of positive (If return < 0 then -STDEV otherwise STDEV)

Trigger 1:
If price > EMA and if stdev is between 0 and 35 then ^RUT otherwise VWESX

Trigger 2:
If price < EMA and if stdev is between -15 and 75 then ^RUT otherwise VWESX

Combining the triggers results in the below returns.

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TSP Share Prices for Sep 4, 2015
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $14.8146 +0.01% +1.36%
   F Fund $16.9747 +0.19% +1.03%
   C Fund $25.7214 -1.52% -5.32%
   S Fund $35.1654 -1.00% -3.12%
   I Fund $23.4766 -1.93% -3.06%
   L 2050 $14.4797 -1.29% -3.20%
   L 2040 $25.6835 -1.13% -2.64%
   L 2030 $24.2899 -0.99% -2.08%
   L 2020 $22.6136 -0.77% -1.25%
   L Income $17.5053 -0.29% +0.31%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)

Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)