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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
 
--- Member Statistics ---
10,989 members, 25 online
Newest member: aimeriza
November 20
New Guy Jumping In
by  United States TSPArtist | 1 Comment

Hi everyone I just found/joined TSPCenter, changed my Fantasy to my real (100% C) fund. I have been reading some of the post, and I’m wondering what if the recent decline is enough to work off the overly optimistic sentiment, leading to a Santa rally through 2015? I know the leading members are mixed, some S, some C. And some G, but not many F.
I am new at this so if you can use everyday language rather than technical jargon I would appreciate it. I don't work in an office, and can't get online but a few times during the work day. But I do try to check in time for the noon cut-off.
Thank you for your ideas of where we are going.

Oh, and that “Back to The Future” avatar reminded me of the noon cutoff, is why I picked it.




November 20
Question for Sig
by  United States - Colorado Sig | 2 Comments

I didn’t see the “Question for Sig” post till too late and could not answer it. I hope this will answer some of what was asked.

I was on AL (vacation) last week and I’m catching up this week. I use these sites (tspcenter,tsptalk & tspevelution) as “what if” test sites. I believe you can look at a chart till your eyes cross and not know what the market is going to do until you make the move and get into a position and then it becomes very clear. More often than not the market goes against you right after you take your position. I say it is better to get that clear vision with virtual money than real money. Then you can make better decisions with your real money. As for tspevelution I’m testing a buy and hold (till January) strategy. As for my real TSP I’m in the 2050 for now and may go to G because the DOW looks like it is beginning to fizzle out and could fall hard.

Sig




November 19
Help with myEPP and the "Retirement" Deduction
by  United States Heckler511 | 6 Comments

Hello TSP Community,

I've been enjoying being a member of this site and reading all the posts / commentary. Thanks to everyone who participates.

It struck me that this might be a good place to ask about a question I have.

On my online employee personal page, "myEPP," every month there is code 75 "RETIREMENT" deduction and I have no idea what that is or where that monthly deduction goes.

Can anybody please offer some insight? This is in addition to my code 75 "TSP-FERS" deduction that ends up going to my tsp.gov account.

Thanks a million! Keep the great market discussion coming.

p.s. - warning, they are making you change your myEPP password if you haven't logged in recently.




November 18
Flexibility and Options for the TSP
by  United States - Kentucky Sad Al | 6 Comments

TSP Board has been slow to adopt new investment strategies, and I really believe their motivation is to save us from ourselves. After adding the Roth option to our investment choices, the board is finally considering other options for investments and withdrawals. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fed ... fed&wpmm=1




November 18
Real Estate License?
by  United States Cpayne09 | 4 Comments

Has anyone received their real estate license in the past 5-10 years? If so, what process did you use to study for the exam?




November 18
When to Bail out of the C Fund??
by  United States NC_USCG | 17 Comments

Just a noobie trying to get a feel for when to swap out of the C fund for F or G.




November 17
Daily Momentum Risk Adjusted Return Strategy For TSP Funds
by  United States - Washington DC skiehawk11 | 7 Comments

I was playing around with an idea in my head over the weekend and decided to do a quick backtest in Excel. Essentially, I wanted to combine momentum with a simple risk return calculation.

Background Summary
* TSP daily prices used since 2003 to present;
* I calculated individual excess return per fund using G as the risk free rate;
* To reduce fund jumping; I remained in S anytime the Strategy signaled a stock Fund (C, S, and I) and chose the F Fund whenever the Strategy signaled for the G or F Fund;
* I used 3 day returns to calcuate beta;
* The strategy is not optimized for only 2 buy/sells per month currently;

Excel Calculation Steps
1. I calculated return for each fund using: (Current price - previous price) / previous price

2. I calculated a smoothed return using the exponential moving average (EXPMA)on each funds return: Prev. EXPMA value + (2/(1+n))*(current return - Prev. EXPMA value)

3. I calculated beta for each fund using the following Excel equation: COVARIANCE.P(3-Day G Fund returns,3-Day x-Fund return) / VAR.P(3-Day G Fund returns)

4. I calculated the Excess Return for each fund using: current return / (EXPMA G Fund value +beta*(EXPMA G-fund value - EXPMA x-Fund value))

5. From there I used the match function to calculate the highest Excess Return value:
MATCH(MAX(excess return range),excess return range,0)

6. Lastly, I chose the fund using previous highest Excess Return value to create a 1-day lag.

Annualized Return Results
Strategy: 20.7% since 2003
Buy & Hold S Fund: 11.5% since 2003

Chart
Image
 
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TSP Share Prices for Nov 19, 2014
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $14.5823 +0.01% +2.07%
   F Fund $16.6319 -0.13% +5.66%
   C Fund $26.9676 -0.14% +12.95%
   S Fund $35.4849 -0.61% +5.39%
   I Fund $24.9943 -0.29% -2.23%
   L 2050 $14.9579 -0.25% +6.36%
   L 2040 $26.3523 -0.22% +6.11%
   L 2030 $24.7857 -0.19% +5.65%
   L 2020 $22.8760 -0.14% +4.96%
   L Income $17.4061 -0.05% +3.51%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)