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TSP Center Data Call for week of April 27, 2014:            

TSP Center - The Thrift Savings Plan Community
 
"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
 
--- Member Statistics ---
10,375 members, 6 online
Newest member: Jesse
April 24
Anyone Spotting a Pattern?
by  United States Tomanyiron | 8 Comments

This resent choppy price action, we haven’t seen in a while. I’ve been watching and this is something kinda like what happen about a year ago (May & June), on a smaller scale. A better example might be mid Sep to mid Nov in 2012.

What am I talking about? Look at a chart, TSPCener’s chart is fine for looking at this. I’m talking S fund only so use it with Mar 4th as starting date, to today. See those zig-zags with a general down trend bias. That’s what I’m talking about. I did some math on it and this is the results:

Mar 4-13, (7 days) -2.43%
Mar 13-18, (3 days) +2.13%
Mar 18-27 (7 days) -3.61%
Mar 27-Apr 2 (4 days) +3.45%

And so on and so forth, cycles, a few percent down, a few percent up. Four cycles total so far. With the max up cycle +4.10%, the max down cycle 4.38%. The average of the up’s = +2.95%, average of the down’s = -3.58%.

You can’t say this ain’t interesting? Yes but is it IFT-able you ask? Ah, maybe not that great, but sometimes you got to take what you can get. Oh, and those two examples I talked about above, about this time in the pattern, the S fund returned to a more tradable up-trend. Yea I know what about “Sell in May and Go Away”, how did that work for us last year?

Anyway I got a week to decide, maybe longer if we are in one of the down’s. Come on guys some of you have seen this, don’t keep it to yourself. You know you will feel better if you help understand this better.




April 23
The numbers don't lie
by  United States bgbearnavy | 0 Comments

I tracked the swing highs and lows, based upon my current model the current rally in S-Fund should peter out. I use the VXF as proxies.

It is my calculation that it might have a little more to go up, maybe $.55 more. Then it COULD drop down to about $79.69 (S-Fund $32.22) The I would get very interesting in getting off my seat and doing the TSP Boogie!


I tried to upload a file to show, but it isn't working




April 22
Looks like folks are following SIG to the G fund.
by  United States Kola | 20 Comments

Wonder what SIG is seeing?




April 22
IFTs
by  United States bkjeffcoat | 2 Comments

I'm new at this......Not sure how to question this......Does the unlimited IFTs to Gfund include the IFT 2 times a month or is this additional?? I don't want to end up being 'stuck' in the Gfund!




April 21
G Fund
by  United States crondanet5 | 4 Comments

Does anyone know why it gained 3 cents today? It's been a long time since there has been such a "big" one day uptick. Just wondering why and will it repeat?




April 21
Poll Idea, What if You had another IFT?
by  United States Tomanyiron | 4 Comments

A good idea for a poll right now might be to ask if any of the folks out of IFTs, would they use a third one to move into the S, C or I funds? I think it would be a good gauge for the people who have an IFT to burn. What is TSP Center members sentiment now with 7 trading days left in April? I think you need only the “out of IFTs” people voting, but I guess that would have to be on the honor system.




April 20
Are You Done Hunting for Eggs?
by  United States Tomanyiron | 11 Comments

Most of us should not be predicting when and if the market will return to an IFT worthiness. And my fellow missed timed IFTs members might be depressed a little, thinking they are now in the “pool of shame”. The shame is if you don’t spend some time looking at what happen, and learning from it. See if your system has failed, or was this just one bad egg out of a dozen good Easter eggs?
Below, IMO is a list of “What Doesn’t Matter "and “What Does Matter”.

Doesn’t Matter: Developing tactics for every short-term market move or geopolitical risk.
Does Matter: Crafting long-term principles that can guide your actions through multiple scenarios.

Doesn’t Matter: The inevitable market correction.
Does Matter: How you react when stocks fall.

Doesn’t Matter: Predicting the next Black Swan.
Does Matter: Your ability to focus on what’s within your control.

Doesn’t Matter: Trying to explain why the market rose or fell on any given day.
Does Matter: Ignoring the endless noise about daily market moves.

Doesn’t Matter: How rigged you think the CPI inflation calculation is.
Does Matter: Your personal spending inflation.

Doesn’t Matter: The next release of the minutes from the latest Fed meeting.
Does Matter: How much money you save.

Doesn’t Matter: Having the highest IQ in the room.
Does Matter: Developing your emotional intelligence.

Doesn’t Matter: Arguing with people on TSPCenter about their posts.
Does Matter: Keeping the negativity in your life to a minimum.

Doesn’t Matter: How many cars and boats your neighbor owns.
Does Matter: Your amount of debt.

Doesn’t Matter: The next 3-5% move in the stock market.
Does Matter: Increasing the amount you save each year by 3-5%.

Doesn’t Matter: Making occasional mistakes with your finances.
Does Matter: Continuing to make the same mistakes over and over again.

Doesn’t Matter: The latest pundit predictions.
Does Matter: Understanding financial market history.

Doesn’t Matter: The upcoming GDP or unemployment number.
Does Matter: How little you worry about a single piece of economic data.

Doesn’t Matter: Having a positive outcome every single time you invest.
Does Matter: Having a rules-based process.

Doesn’t Matter: Losing money in your portfolio occasionally.
Does Matter: Running out of money before you need it by not taking any risk at all.

Doesn’t Matter: Consistently beating “the market.”
Does Matter: Slowly building wealth over time.

Obviously I’m quoting someone else, and I’m not smart enough to think all this up on my own. But I am smart enough to recognize wise words when I read them. Most of it came from Ben Carlson. http://awealthofcommonsense.com/financial-matters/
I deleted a few on his long list, changed a word or two, (and made one TSP related adaptation).




 
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TSP Share Prices for Apr 24, 2014
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $14.3925 +0.01% +0.74%
   F Fund $16.1725 +0.03% +2.74%
   C Fund $24.4206 +0.17% +2.28%
   S Fund $34.0573 -0.18% +1.15%
   I Fund $25.9880 +0.06% +1.66%
   L 2050 $14.3320 +0.06% +1.91%
   L 2040 $25.2884 +0.05% +1.83%
   L 2030 $23.8640 +0.05% +1.73%
   L 2020 $22.1351 +0.05% +1.56%
   L Income $17.0094 +0.02% +1.15%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)