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TSP Center Data Call for week of October 04, 2015:            

TSP Center - The Thrift Savings Plan Community
"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
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12,097 members, 11 online
Newest member: Momof2
October 02
Best Fantasy Players and Their Allocations as an Index
by  United States Tomanyiron | 18 Comments

After some discussion and thought on my part, I decided to start a new thread about a leader sentiment index. If possible I will do updates. Maybe I can provide something in the order of the ongoing post from other members. We have threads by ebbcharts “Strategy”, Aitrus has “Seasonal Musings”, and we have Snaffu’s “TSP Forecast”. Hopefully this leader analyst I’m going to undertake can provide an extra edge on IFT decisions, but if nothing else, something to look at and ponder about. Actually, I think I will enjoy this, but I accept the fact, this is not a “get in at the absolute bottom” or “out at the very tip top” indicator. The most benefit may be to the low risk players and moderate trend followers.

BASIC PREMISES: What fund is dominant with the wisest TSPCenter fantasy members? What fund has the highest allocation, and what are the percentages of members in the riskier stock funds as opposed to the possible safer F fund and safest G fund? Using the 360-day leader list, (the YTD leaders may be too dependent on luck at the beginning of the year), and tracking the allocations of the sixty best fantasy players we can add another tool to help with our daunting task of IFTs.

DEFINITION of 'Top 60 of 360-day Leaders Index’: This is a TSPCenter only sentiment index. An indicator revealed by the placement of funds of the leaders. Obviously, the day-to-day IFT’s affect this indicator, but also the performances of members, especially the ones near the 60 cutoff area. A member at say 65 and in a fund that had a real good day could bounce up into the top 60. Also there is no separation of the “realized” and “unrealized” gains/loses, and as we all know an unrealized gain one day can evaporate the next. I can visualize changes in the third page (41-60) area often.

CONCLUSIONS: This type of sentiment index sugest EXPECTATIONS of future fund performance based on past performance of our best members. Their allocations may or may not be based on market fundamentals. Additionally the IFT limitations will have an influence on this index. Near the end of the month there may be a bias toward the number of G fund allocations. Because member’s desires to enter other funds may be prevented by the IFT rules. The pressure may build up, and a surge of IFT’s to stocks or bonds could come at the beginning of the month. So our IFT limitations will skew things in a way. There also should be expectations of some whipsawing a times. One good day could change the index to the opposite bias. Not a thing “you can take to the bank”, but with this extra knowledge it can be an additional decision making tool.

October 01
All Zeros on Daily Return
by  United States Tomanyiron | 1 Comment

Share prices for Sep 30th did not update. :?: :shock: :cry:

September 29
Timing the Repeating Bear/Bull Cycles - "What if?"
by  United States XAMOTOMAX | 4 Comments

I ran some very general and rudimentary numbers to see how the market has performed for those with the wits to exit at the top and enter at the bottom of what appears to be a repeating cycle of bull/bear market activity. This hypothetical uses $1 invested in the S/P 500 and assumes entry at the lowest points and exits at the highest points of the cycles. Yes, I know that's a big assumption. It also assumes no trades were performed on the way down or on the way up which if done effectively would offer even greater returns than "setting and forgetting" during the bull and bear cycles as I've done here. I started with the beginning of a bear market ( crash) and completed 2 full bear and bull market cycles ending with the peak of the 2015 bull market. If anyone finds any glaring errors, please let me know.

Bear market cycle 1: Jan 2000 to July 2002 (30 months) - $1 cash, 0 gains or losses
Bull market cycle 1: Invest $1 July 2002 (SP500=768) and cash out July 2007 (SP500=1576): 205% market gain = $2.05 cash

Bear market cycle 2: Jul 2007 to Jan 2009 (18 months) - $2.05 cash, 0 gains or losses
Bull market cycle 2: Invest $2.05 Jan 2009 (SP500=666) and cash out Feb 2015 (SP500=2119): 318% market gain = $6.52 cash

652% return on initial $1 investment
Cycle start: Jan 2000
Cycle end: Feb 2015
Months in Cycle: 182 (15 yrs, 2 mos)

Averaged Monthly return: 3.58%
Averaged Annual return: 42.99%

Results: Timing is everything. A keen sense of when the market changes direction over the long term is essential. A few successful short term trades on oscillations can net even larger returns or make up for what would surely be imperfect timing on the entry and exit points in the real world. I see this developing bear market as a great opportunity to protect my cash and put it back in the market at the start of the next bull market. Feels like a Ponzi scheme to me but I don't think that's a coincidence. If this is a repeating cycle, the market is going to get crushed but that has to happen in order to make the big bucks over the long term.

September 29
Charts vs Fund Prices
by  United States bsibary | 2 Comments

The charts on this site show the C Fund tracks S & P 500 and the S Fund tracks Wilshire 4500. Is there a way to relate chart numbers to fund prices on the fly? It's one thing to see a fund is up or down based on the chart, but it's another to have an idea how 1883 (S & P) or 972 (Wilshire) correlates to a fund price at a given point in time instead of at closing. It would be nice to know how far up or down the C and S fund prices are compared to their previous close # to help determine IFTs that must be entered by 12:00.

September 26
Things to think about until 2017?
by  United States usps2013 | 7 Comments

I don't want to be that guy, but we should probably start a candid conversation about how to maximize returns in a bear market. As the long-term-chart shows, this could get ugly and protracted.

Leg 1 pulled back almost 50%.
Leg 2 pulled back 56%.
Leg 3 will pull back...

The primary reason I mention this is that the Friday high retraced and bounced off of the .618 fib before falling back into the September 18, 2015 downward channel. (Chart 2, S&P 1 hour candles).

September 26
TSP Forcast for 28 Sep - Pvt Snaffu
by  United States - Georgia snaffu | 10 Comments

My position: 100% F-Fund. Until I look at my main charts this weekend, I don't have any plans to jump out..

AGG / F Fund:... : STO's are rising, MACD is neutral..

SPX / C Fund:... : FSTO is @ 20, SSTO is @ 50 and falling.. MACD separation has reduced to near zero.

DWCPF / S Fund:... : Same as SPX.

EFA / I Fund:... : DITTO...

Summary... May see a small bounce this week but I don't think it will hold.. An aggressive trader may be able to make a small gain if IFT's are available..
- The weekly charts show that STO's should be near a low in the next couple weeks.. Maybe mid-late Oct..

Something to think about... Its the end of Sept.. in other words not only is the end of a quarter, but the end/beginning of the Fiscal Year... It may be worth the effort to look at previous years to see what has happened on Oct 1...

Other Charts... DOW Index:..., CNBC Pre Market

- Pvt Snaffu

September 23
For those that went I today
by  United States - Illinois EpicWin | 30 Comments

What made you all want to do that? What indicators are you all looking at? What piece of news marked now as a good time to get in? I wanted to follow suit, but I didn't know why everyone was heading into I.

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United States - Georgia snaffu 2015-01-01 +13.77%
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TSP Share Prices for Oct 2, 2015
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $14.8388 +0.01% +1.52%
   F Fund $17.0924 +0.27% +1.73%
   C Fund $26.1669 +1.44% -3.68%
   S Fund $34.6504 +1.62% -4.53%
   I Fund $23.6367 +1.36% -2.40%
   L 2050 $14.5805 +1.25% -2.53%
   L 2040 $25.8518 +1.11% -2.00%
   L 2030 $24.4472 +0.96% -1.45%
   L 2020 $22.7413 +0.72% -0.69%
   L Income $17.5707 +0.31% +0.69%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)

Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)