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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
 
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13,885 members, 39 online
Newest member: krownster
January 16
Best places to work (federal agenciy rankings)
by  United States scottdw85 | 2 Comments

Just found an interesting site that ranks different federal agencies in terms of best places to work.

http://bestplacestowork.org/BPTW/

For large agencies, NASA takes the top and the Homeland Security is the lowest.

Comparing all sizes, the OIG for the TVA is at the top whereas the Federal Election Commission is at the bottom.

I'm AF which scored a 59.3. That seems about right.

How about you?




January 16
Investors brace for a massive market sell-off
by  United States GoRedSox | 3 Comments

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ ... spartandhp

Seems you can find extreme predictions both ways, i.e., nowhere to go but up, or the exact opposite. Not sure I have the stomach to stay the course and take a big hit, but that cost me BIG TIME during the election. Anyone else struggling, or are the timers just staying the course?




January 13
Holiday Week Bias
by  United States rhetorics | 0 Comments

The Santa-Claus rally is a well documented thing, but has anyone taken a look at the overall S fund return for all of the holiday weeks over a given year? Might just be perception over reality, but the old axiom is you have light trading and a positive bias the week leading up to a holiday. Just checking to see if someone has ever aggregated the data.

There very well might not be a positive return, or enough of one to make a difference, but if there was it would be interesting to run a comparison of a couple of seasonal strats incorporating a move to S for a holiday week. Obviously hard to do with our IFT limitations, you'd have to come up with a move to position yourself in the right place for the next month.




January 12
Seasonal vs blog market watchers - my view
by  United States gclapper | 14 Comments

So I was sitting here this morning and thinking about how the seasonal strategy compared to a couple peoples blogs that seem to try and time the market. These blogs have been mentioned in these forums before and were some of the first information sites that I found when I started to really look at my TSP back in October-November 2016 time frame (they have good reference info for free). I wanted to see the return I would have gotten if I had followed these sites all of 2016 compared to my own seasonal strategy for 2016.

First I took out all 2016 data from the seasonal strategy spreadsheet (thanks Aitrus!) and did the same procedure I did at the end of 2016 to come up with a strategy for 2016. The results were the same as the strategy I ended up developing (F,S,C,I,C,F,I,F,F,C,C,S or F,S,S,I,C,F,I,F,F,C,C,S; the latter I went with for these calculations).

Then I went to each of the blog sites and determined their allocations and the dates in which they did them. Some dates might be slightly off but would not make any real difference in the final numbers. I then downloaded the daily share prices from the TSP.gov web site for all the funds starting the last day in December 2015 through 2016. I used the daily fund prices because the blogs sometimes changed their allocations during the month. I started with an initial $10,000 investment for all funds (no monthly additional investments). Then using excel, calculated the value of that $10,000 initial investment through the year, changing funds per each blog allocations to get a final value at the end of 2016.

I did this also for my strategy which had a return of 26.7860% using monthly return values from TSP.gov and Aitrus’s spreadsheet. Using the above daily fund prices and initial investment of $10,000 I got a return for the year of 26.8161% using the same procedure used for the blogs. So pretty close.

The results of the two blogs were 7.5299% and 6.4580% return for all of 2016. This is a huge difference compared to the seasonal strategy! Taking a $100,000 TSP fund starting 2016, this would equate to losing roughly $20,000 if I had followed the blogs compared to seasonal! So for me this is a huge sign that following a seasonal strategy is the way to go! At least for someone like me that does not have the market knowledge, time, and experience to do anything different. If I can have good return like this most years then I will be set up real good for retirement.

Thoughts?




January 11
TSP Charts Website
by  United States Paulyg | 4 Comments

I stumbled across http://www.tspcharts.com on reddit the other day and figured you guys may be interested. It lets you compare the prices of funds against each other - seems to be up to date.

-P




January 11
Heritage Foundation Recommendations
by  United States - Texas ewok55 | 22 Comments

I did a forum search but wasn't able to find much discussion on the proposals made by the Heritage Foundation's report, which the folks at Fedsmith are saying could be closely followed by the incoming administration (excerpt below). Has anybody calculated how 8% TSP matching might stack up against the loss of FERS? Below are some of the results from looking at it for my age range/years experience. Am I correct in seeing that the TSP might have trouble making up for the loss of FERS?

Year / TSP (StatQuo) / Interest Earned / TSP (8%match) / Interest Earned
2017 29546.43177 2954.643177 29602.13 2960.213
2018 41726.87495 4172.687495 47323.623 4732.3623
2019 55406.86244 5540.686244 67267.6653 6726.76653
2020 70736.44869 7073.644869 89656.67183 8965.667183
2021 87880.49355 8788.049355 114734.979 11473.4979
2022 106738.9429 10673.89429 142321.1169 14232.11169
2023 127664.7372 12766.47372 172956.2686 17295.62686
2024 150683.1109 15068.31109 206654.9355 20665.49355
2025 176384.922 17638.4922 244334.029 24433.4029
2026 204656.9142 20465.69142 285781.0319 28578.10319
2027 236037.6056 23603.76056 331823.1351 33182.31351
2028 270556.3662 27055.63662 382469.4486 38246.94486
2029 308808.5028 30880.85028 438630.7935 43863.07935
2030 350885.8531 35088.58531 500408.2728 50040.82728
2031 397452.5384 39745.25384 568814.0601 56881.40601
2032 448675.8923 44867.58923 644060.4261 64406.04261
2033 505021.5815 50502.15815 726831.4287 72683.14287
2034 567001.8396 56700.18396 817879.5316 81787.95316
2035 635180.1236 63518.01236 918032.4448 91803.24448
2036 710176.2359 71017.62359 1028200.649 102820.0649
2037 792671.9595 79267.19595 1149385.674 114938.5674
2038 883417.2555 88341.72555 1282689.202 128268.9202
2039 983237.081 98323.7081 1429323.082 142932.3082
2040 1093038.889 109303.8889 1590620.35 159062.035
2041 1213820.878 121382.0878 1768047.345 176804.7345
2042 1346681.066 134668.1066 1963217.039 196321.7039
2043 1492827.272 149282.7272 2177903.703 217790.3703

These numbers are based on a GS13-2 employee (less than 5 years experience as Fed Emp) contributing 5% in Status Quo or 8% in the possible Trump Plan, accounting for future step increases but not COLAs. Also assumed is a 10% yearly return (which is high, I know, but that's what the S&P has averaged in its lifetime).

Following the proposals, in 2043 this would mean having about $685,000 more in a TSP to help offset (some of) the loss of FERS. By contrast, FERS would likely pay around $34,000 per year for that same employee in the status quo.

Thoughts?

<EXCERPT>
•Transition to a new retirement system. No changes to retirement for federal employees with 25 years or more of federal service.
•Vested employees (with between 5 and 25 years of service would have several options:


Option A: Remain in the FERS system and continue to receive both FERS and TSP benefits but pay a higher share of FERS costs.
.

Option B: Maintain a frozen FERS benefit...

Continue Reading...




January 11
TSP Funds or AGG or EFA Daily Price History Excel Sheet
by  United States squatchETF | 6 Comments

Hello,

I am looking for a daily price history sheet for TSP prices or the indexes that track them to do some back testing. The ones I can find only go to back to 2003. I know the I fund was started in 2001. Anyone have one?

Thanks




 
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TSP Share Prices for Jan 13, 2017
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $15.1997 +0.01% +0.08%
   F Fund $17.5169 -0.11% +0.39%
   C Fund $31.3890 +0.19% +1.67%
   S Fund $41.8685 +0.65% +2.13%
   I Fund $25.2413 +0.32% +2.60%
   L 2050 $16.6071 +0.25% +1.72%
   L 2040 $29.1099 +0.22% +1.53%
   L 2030 $27.1896 +0.18% +1.32%
   L 2020 $24.6982 +0.12% +0.90%
   L Income $18.5001 +0.06% +0.49%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)