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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
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11,235 members, 9 online
Newest member: c22c
January 28
What to do? Bull or Bear?
by  United States BarbosaBLZ | 6 Comments

I just started TSP 3 years ago. I didn't seriously start putting money into my TSP until last year. I have less than 20k altogather. I am active duty in the military and currently put about 18% of my income into TSP.

I learned the hard way last year as I saw that each time I tried to move $ around I chose poorly and have horrible timing. That made me decide to just pick a fund and come rain or shine stick with it. It seems things are looking kind of bearish. Still hopefully having 20 or so years until retirement should I just leave my stuff where it is 75% in C and 25% in F or brace for a bear market and switch to heavier G and F?

Just looking for advice?

January 28
I'm growing fur!
by  United States - Kentucky Sad Al | 10 Comments

You can check my record and see I'm no stock market guru. I've been too freaked by the 2007-2008 crash that I've been far to wary for far too long. I am always looking for the next big crash, and expecting it to begin with the next dip.

But that being said, this article seems to validate my often wrong gut feeling that it has been far too long since the bear scared the bejeezus out of the bull: ... eid=YAHOOB

Now I am at a critical stage of my life. A 20-40% loss would be devastating, and not much time is left for me to make it up when the bull returns to greener pastures. How I wish it had happened two years ago and we were in the beginnings of a recovery today.

What do you think? Does the article have merit? Do you see other signs of an imminent bear market? Predictions for 2015 were not robust, but at least a profit by the end of the year, has all that changed?

January 27
Bilizzard Effect the Markets?
by  United States Tomanyiron | 10 Comments

Today the US north-east is under severe snow storm warning, high winds and coastal flooding. At this point some airports are closed and I heard that well over 3,000 flights were canceled. The Big Apple is facing what will likely be "one of the worst snowstorms in the history of this city," said Mayor Bill de Blasio. Exchanges are planning to open as usual on Tuesday. And I think most trader's have the ability to work remotely. I'm guessing volume will probably be very low though. Markets can get pushed easy then.
Crondanet, you hunkered down, looking out those new windows at the snow yet?

January 23
Roth IRA/401k TSP
by  United States kaclemen | 13 Comments

All doing some digging and a lot of books talking about the benfefit of Roth IRA and Roth 401k

Basically stating tax deferred retirements accounts are bad because your investing the governments money along with yours and the tax bracket is bound to rise in the future taking more of your final pieCe of pie.

Roth (tax now, no tax later) and traditional (contribute before tax,tax later)

My question is do we have Roth 401k option (17,500/max per year) or do we only have Roth IRA option (5500/max per year). I am contributing to Roth IRA and expect to max it out but if we have way to maximize beyond 5500 I would prefer to do that. Also what happens once you reach Roth limit does tsp automatically roll % contribute into traditional tsp or do they put it back into paycheck?

Thoughts on this topic would be greatly appreciated. Should I look into a separate Roth 401k to protect future assets? Tsp just seems like such a good benfefit with low fees and great funds. But I hate to be sitting on $1,500,000 come 65 only to find out the tax bracket is 60% and my nest egg is only worth $600,000.00 after tax.

January 22
Risk ON Baby!
by  United States Tomanyiron | 37 Comments

You ever heard “Make Hay While the Sun Shines”? Some people might not be familiar with that phrase, its means when an opportunity comes along, try to make the most benefit from it. Or as Yogi Berra said “When you come to a fork in the road....Take it”. Sometimes opportunity comes and you’re not expecting it, if your mind was leaning one way, you might have to switch gears fast and decide. Which fork do I “Take”, is one a trap, a trick, was the sign false? We never know until after the biggest benefit has pasted.

These past days when the market has had the zigs and zags, there’s not been much benefit to making a move. Money and world politics, the things that make the stock market a harsh mistress. And the news, how do we hack our way through the forests of misinformation and hype?

However we like it when the market seams to have a goal. And looks like everyone wants to take on risk, and make some money. It would be nice if we could do it without the risk, without the potential sacrifice of our own hard earned money. It doesn’t work that way. On top of that, the gratification (if it comes at all) is going to be delayed, “un-realized gain” until you take the money off the table.

I was temped to transfer to G a day or two ago, F was starting to look toppy. And at the same time, stocks still looked to have more down-side to go. I delayed because it would have been my second IFT for Jan. No way to re-enter before Feb 1. My charts were having a tough time lately. But I drew some lines that make some sense to me. It’s nice when the market respects my lines. Scary, isn't it?

I’m going to take all 100% and speculate on the S Fund. Do you notice, I’m posting and transferring before the market even opens? Scary also.

January 21
How to turn $100m into $200k
by  United States nomny2020 | 3 Comments

If you have a bad day, week, month or even year, just remember that you are doing better than this guy (at least I hope!!!).

Scary things happen when people get desperate.

But on the other hand ... oil-crash/

Sometimes you’re the bug,…

January 18
Seasonal vs. Business Cycle Strategy?
by  United States slester | 4 Comments

Has anyone done a comparison of the Seasonal investment strategy vs the Business Cycle strategy? The Seasonal seems to be based upon past trends whereas the Business Cycle depends upon where you think we are in a 4 choice cycle:

Early: TSP S Fund
Mid: TSP S Fund transitioning to TSP C Fund
Late: TSP C Fund transitioning to TSP F Fund
Recession: TSP F Fund transitioning to TSP G Fund

The trick with the business cycle is determining where you are in the cycle and positioning the funds for the change. These seem to be long term (ride out the lulls) moves.

Any thoughts on this is appreciated. I'm new to TSP and learning as much as I can.


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TSP Share Prices for Jan 28, 2015
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $14.6403 +0.01% +0.16%
   F Fund $17.1214 +0.42% +1.90%
   C Fund $26.4441 -1.34% -2.66%
   S Fund $35.8522 -1.48% -1.22%
   I Fund $24.5123 -1.33% +1.21%
   L 2050 $14.8199 -1.15% -0.93%
   L 2040 $26.1686 -1.01% -0.80%
   L 2030 $24.6452 -0.87% -0.65%
   L 2020 $22.7964 -0.66% -0.45%
   L Income $17.4428 -0.24% -0.05%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)

Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)