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14,564 members, 31 online
Newest member: gangreen33
April 20
Difference in the numbers?
by  United States John316 | 2 Comments

This has probably already been answered somewhere but here goes the "dumb question of the week" - the numbers at the bottom of the website for the "I" fund (EFA) says it hit "62" today, yet the per share price on the side column says the share price for the "I" fund is $26. What do both of these numbers mean? 8-)




April 20
Leave I-Fund Early?
by  United States ksmoly04 | 13 Comments

Lots of interesting commentary regarding the 1st round Presidential Elections in France this Sunday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres- ... 2017-04-19

Admittedly, no one can predict the outcome... so is there any sense in seeking 'safer' harbors until Tues?




April 17
The daily seasonal strategy
by  Japan mjedlin66 | 37 Comments

This thread is dedicated to my seasonal strategy role model, Aitrus.

Greetings. Here is the "daily seasonal" strategy that I came up with at the end of 2015 and utilized effective January 1st, 2016. My fantasyTSP does not match this strategy 100% because sometimes I miss IFTs. So here are the 2016 results- Daily Seasonal: 12%. S-Fund: 16.3%.

So I lost to the S fund, but I beat the other core funds. I am hoping it beats all of the core funds this year. But even if it doesn't I may stick with it. For 2016, I was only 3 points behind the leading core fund, and I did that with less risk because my strategy is only in equities roughly 50-75% of the time. If a market crash occurs when I am in G or F, I will be much better off.

This strategy was made in Excel. I analyzed all of the daily prices from 06/2003 - 06/2015. First, I converted each calendar day to a trading day. The 5th trading day may fall on the 7th of the month one year and the 5th of the month the next year. In order to compare the 5th trading day of one year to the 5th trading day of the next, I converted every calendar day to a trading day by stripping out the weekends and holidays.

Then, I found the daily change for every trading day by comparing it to the previous trading day. Once I had the daily change as a percentage, I divided them by 100 to come up with a multiplicative factor. Finally, I averaged these multiplicative factors across every year 2003-2015.

The result was one full year worth of average gains for each trading day of the year.

I took that 1 year of averages and ran it through an IFT simulator. The IFT simulator was just a bunch of Excel macros which copied all of the average gains for one month and put it through every possible IFT combination. There are 1794 possible IFT combinations for a 23-day period. Remember we are using trading days rather than calendar days, and the maximum number of trading days for any month is 23. So excel ran all 1794 possible IFT combinations for the average gains and then spit out the maximum and which strategy came up with it.

For example, the biggest monthly gain the simulator could come up with for February was 3.35%, and this occured when- Starting: S fund, IFT to I Fund at COB on the 9th trading day, and then IFT to F fund at COB on the 13th trading day, and IFT to G at COB on the 20th trading day and stay there until the end of the month.

It was extremely specific. Notice that the simulator even took into account the "3rd IFT", which is the possibility of going to G fund ONLY as a 3rd IFT.

Once I had the IFT patterns for every month, I had to make them line up. That means that the starting fund of one month had to match the ending fund of the previous month. I did all that by hand, but there were remarkably few adjustments required.

This is the result:
Starting Fund, 1st IFT Fund:trading day, 2nd IFT Fund:trading day, 3rd IFT trading day...

Continue Reading...




April 17
Excellent articles on when to buy and sell stocks
by  United States cswift01 | 2 Comments

I think this works well with seasonality and with the TSP.

http://www.meta-formula.com/stocks-and-options.html (10AM rule)

http://www.investopedia.com/day-trading ... de-stocks/ (when to buy and sell stocks)

I think that this might be a good time to consider when to sell and buy.

Enjoy!

Me




April 15
Great motivation to invest in TSP equities
by  United States cswift01 | 2 Comments

Check out the response from the present day TSP millionaire:

http://federalnewsradio.com/mike-causey ... llionaire/

Enjoy!

Me




April 13
Post-Trump Rally Rotation??
by  United States RKresearch | 3 Comments

I haven't found news mentions of a post-Trump rally rotation from stocks into bonds but if you chart the F fund against the C fund since March 15 it sure looks like the C fund money is going into F.

I did find this on the CNN Fear And Greed site this morning.

"Bonds have outperformed stocks by 3.51 percentage points during the last 20 trading days. This is close to the weakest performance for stocks relative to bonds in the past two years and indicates investors are fleeing risky stocks for the safety of bonds."




April 13
TSP loan
by  United States sonofnthng | 18 Comments

I currently have 2,800 left on a loan I took out 3 years ago. I'm not in any way implying that I will ever take another loan from my TSP, but I have a question regarding this comment on a Q/A site.

In the 3rd answer, by Michael Mez, he states that you will pay a tax penalty on income as a result of taking the loan out. Am I missing something, or is he foolish? We contribute pre-tax dollars, just as we would pay back a loan with pre tax dollars..... So, loan or no, (besides ROTH obviously) you'll have to pay taxes on the money you withdraw, just the same, right?

I think the answer to her question is How much time do you have to recover the hit to your TSP. I understand this is a game of compounding, so the higher the balance, the more you can earn.


So, just so I don't do anything foolish, myself, please reenforce me with your wisdom/advice.
I have 50k in my TSP. 25 years till retirement. I have saved up ~4k for an eventual down payment on a house. Is it smart to wait till I have the 20% in the bank (which may take 5 more years) or if I found the perfect place, take out TSP $ (~10k) for the down.

My thinking is, if I can lower my cost of living (rent is 1100) by a few hundred, I can put that right back toward the loan, and also be investing in my own property. But also, that I'd be setting myself back, ruining my chances of seeing a big balance, provided I don't die.




 
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    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $15.2971 +0.01% +0.73%
   F Fund $17.7793 +0.04% +1.90%
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   S Fund $42.8179 -0.28% +4.44%
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   L 2050 $17.1382 -0.21% +4.98%
   L 2040 $29.9595 -0.18% +4.49%
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   L Income $18.7416 -0.04% +1.80%
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AGG (F Fund)
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