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11,520 members, 11 online
Newest member: kcornell6
April 17
IFT question
by  United States - Colorado jpinvestor | 3 Comments

I put in an ift request on april 15 after 1215. Pending transfers showed it would be end of trading day april 16th. This morning pending trasfers showed it to change april 17th. If Im after 1215 deadline does it take 2 days for the ift request. Sorry for the silly question Im a new at this. Thanks.




April 16
Silly Question
by  United States gr8nole | 1 Comment

Can the TSP transfer it's assets? Reason being is that a coworker of mine indicated that during the last big significant dip in October 2014, his losses in C&S werent that bad as the "TSP transfers assets to weather the storm." To me it sounds like sour grapes but just wondering.




April 15
Market Highs...Flying too close to the Sun
by  United States - Wyoming maxbobcat | 11 Comments

S&P 500 is very close to it's record high after today's gains. I have a little more than 5% gains on the year that I am so far very pleased with. I don't want to fly too close to the market highs only to get burned when a correction comes.

Just wondering what signals others are looking for that will signal a time to get out of the market. Last I saw a few weeks ago, the Fed was looking at raising interest rates in June or July right?

I think conventional wisdom says that C&S funds will go down when dates get confirmed on the interest rate rises, so each date we get closer to that it seems riskier and riskier to stay in the market.

Any other signals you guys are looking at? Thanks.




April 15
TSP Gain not reflected in account
by  United States pghgrl | 3 Comments

Both the S&P and Dow closed with gains yesterday but my S fund shows a loss. Does anybody know why that would be and does anybody else's account show the same?




April 15
ECB QE
by  United States md2018 | 1 Comment

What will be the effect of continuing QE by the ECB and the continued drop of Euro on the American markets? Will the I-Fund continue to move upward?

"Euro Tumbles as ECB’s Draghi Seen Sticking to Bond-Buying Plan
By Eshe Nelson - Apr 15, 2015, 4:57:49 AM

The euro fell against the dollar before European Central Bank President Mario Draghi presents a review of his 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion) asset-buying plan that aims to revive the region’s economy and stoke inflation.

The common currency has weakened more than 2 percent since the ECB began purchases of sovereign debt on March 9. All eyes are on Draghi’s regular press conference after Wednesday’s interest-rate decision when, investors speculate, he’ll reiterate his commitment to loose monetary policy. He’s also likely to face questions about how long quantitative easing will last, and traders will be looking for clues as to whether the program will be wrapped up early if it achieves its goals.

“Draghi will reiterate the dovish policy setting,” said Alvin T. Tan, a foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. “I’m very doubtful there’ll be any talk of tapering at this point. There’s been some recovery in the European data in recent weeks but it’s still pretty tentative.”

The euro tumbled 0.7 percent to $1.0581 as of 9:54 a.m. London time. It has weakened in seven of the past eight days and is approaching last month’s low of $1.0458, its weakest level since January 2003.

The ECB will announce its rate decision at 1:45 p.m. Frankfurt time and Draghi will speak to reporters 45 minutes later. Officials will hold the main refinancing rate at 0.05 percent, according to every one of the 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

‘Sustained Adjustment’

The ECB has said QE will continue until September 2016 or until it sees a “sustained adjustment” in the path of inflation toward its medium-term goal of just under 2 percent. As Executive Board member Yves Mersch noted last week, that means it could be curtailed or extended, depending on the data.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month said euro-region inflation will increase by 0.3 percentage point this year, with a weaker exchange rate doing most of the work. Consumer prices fell 0.1 percent in March from a year earlier.

The euro has tumbled more than 12 percent against the dollar this year and in the first quarter posted its worst performance since its 1999 debut.

Talks over the future of Greece’s financing are also weighing on the single currency, which on Tuesday reached its weakest level versus the Swiss franc since January. The euro fell 0.4 percent to 1.03246 francs Wednesday, a day after touching 1.02967.

“Negotiations don’t appear to be progressing very well,” said SocGen’s Tan. “This background noise about Greece will continue to undermine the euro.”




April 10
Fascinating Interview With Mark Cuban
by  United States - Washington DC skiehawk11 | 6 Comments

See the interview below. Thoughts?


YouTube Link




April 10
Political Bias In Investing
by  United States - Washington DC skiehawk11 | 2 Comments

I came across a great article that touches on the subject of political bias in investment decision making. The link to the original article is below. Thoughts?

Political Bias Corrupts Economic Analysis
By Barry Ritholtz

Those of you who over the many years have followed some of the thoughts and observations I jot down each morning may have noticed several themes. Prominent among them is that forecasting is folly; cognitive errors create investing mistakes; consider context when analyzing data; recency bias overemphasizes the latest data; mixing politics with investing is a costly mistake.

Which brings us to an article in the National Review that managed to combine many if not all of these themes: "2014's Jobs Boom Wasn’t Even Much of a Boom. Does This Jobs Report Mean It’s Already Over?"

As I noted back in 2011, “When you are in the polling booth, vote however you like; but when you are reviewing your investing options, it is best to do so with a cold, dispassionate eye.”

The same is true for analyzing economic data. Those of you who zestfully pursue politics will dislike this analysis, for it points out the many errors of your ways. You are not my intended audience; rather, the people who are actual investors will find this useful (and perhaps it will save them some money).

Let’s have a look review some of these analytical errors.

False Statement: Let’s begin with the headline, which starts with the assertion that “2014’s Jobs Boom Wasn’t Even Much of a Boom.”

That statement is demonstrably false, as any fair reading of the employment data show. (The author even implies as much in the article.) Bloomberg first noted the strength of the hiring figures halfway through last year. The pace continued for the rest of the year, and “2014 became the single best year for job gains since 1999.” In other words, there is no way to read “Jobs Boom” as anything other than a boom.

There are, to be sure, lots of ways to criticize the state of the labor market: Wage growth has been anemic, labor underutilization remains a concern and the labor force participation rate is the lowest since the late 1970s. Any of those areas would make for a far more accurate and compelling criticique. But to make the claim that 2014 wasn't a good year for job gains, isn’t just a misinterpretation, it's simply wrong.

Lack of Causation: I have written many times that presidents get too much credit for the good and too much blame for the bad. This is true for all presidents, including George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

We can track the markets by the "4 Year Presidential Cycle"; we can get more granular and look at the second year of four-year terms in a "Presidential Cycle"; we can even look at "Stock Market Returns by Party." But crediting or blaming the president alone for the state of the economy is simply foolish. The president is powerful. But the...

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TSP Share Prices for Apr 17, 2015
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $14.6973 +0.01% +0.55%
   F Fund $17.1688 +0.10% +2.18%
   C Fund $27.6242 -1.13% +1.69%
   S Fund $38.3095 -1.34% +5.55%
   I Fund $26.2768 -0.84% +8.50%
   L 2050 $15.5594 -0.92% +4.02%
   L 2040 $27.3250 -0.82% +3.59%
   L 2030 $25.5963 -0.70% +3.19%
   L 2020 $23.4921 -0.53% +2.59%
   L Income $17.6871 -0.21% +1.35%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)