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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
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17,144 members, 44 online
Newest member: deejay666
May 25
Trump takes aim at federal bureaucracy with new orders
by  United States Carmen909 | 2 Comments

Trump takes aim at federal bureaucracy with new executive orders altering civil service protections


May 25
A Method Proven to Beat 82% of Investors
by  United States sgtnichols | 15 Comments

Greetings fellow TSPers!

Realizing my plans usually underperform the market, I switched to a set-it-and-forget-it strategy of 60S/40C. This low-stress approach to investing is doing pretty well, placing me among the top 13% of folks on here so far this year; #198 in 1592 members. :mrgreen:

My performance this year rhymes with the following quote and is to be expected. Investment in actively managed accounts is plummeting after reports pointed out that active managers can only beat the market consistently about 5% of the time:

"Over the longest span, the numbers were particularly brutal. The S&P 500 (C Fund) outperformed more than 92% of large-cap funds over the last 15 years. Mid- and small-cap funds fared no better over the time period, with their benchmarks (S Fund) besting them 95.4% and 93.2% of the time, respectively.

Overall, 82.2% of all active funds were outperformed over the 15-year period.

Source: Fortune Magazine, 2017 ... tual-funds

Take a moment to compare your performance over the past few years against the C and S funds. If you have underperformed those benchmarks, you may want to rethink your stategy. Maybe you need to accept that you are unable to get the returns you thought you could and now need to contribute more each month. That's okay. Children do what feels good. Adults devise a plan and follow it.

As an engineer, before committing to this strategy I ran thousands of simulations trying to pick the optimal MACD, RSI, STO, etc. settings for a technical active trading system. Can you guess what happened? I actually had to force my simulations to not converge on a buy-and-hold strategy. That simulator took weeks to make... What a buzzkill.

It makes sense though, right? The world's population has been slicing and dicing this stuff for decades so there should not be an optimal active trading strategy that works in the long term. You win by knowing something the other guy does not, by pushing massive numbers of investors around with targeted news, or like I do... Just by passively sitting on the sidelines watching, banking on the idea that investors will continue putting money into the game. It's a smart play: most of us need at least a million dollars to retire, the market offers the best returns, and our government and workplaces encourage all of us to put skin in the game.

If you need help sleeping, I recommend reading "A Random Walk Down Wall Street". A technical and dense read, Malkiel supports passive investing for retirement accounts, as do the findings presented in "Millionaire Next Door", "Common Sense on Investing" (Bogle), and my favorite money guru Dave Ramsey from "Total Money Makeover". They are also all very careful to point out that regular and high contributions have a much bigger impact on your comfort in retirement than IRR. Successful people spend much less than...

Continue Reading...

May 24
Where to go?
by  United States cswift01 | 8 Comments

Dear all,

So, I'm wrestling with a decision to make and I'm hoping that someone smarter than I can provide some advice. I'm trying to free up investments over the next couple of months. "Cash is King" is how I see things for a while. The thing is that this cash I would prefer not to leave languishing in a money market account. I was hoping to throw it in short-term treasuries. I've been looking at FSBAX as this location, however, it seems to be losing value (due to rising rates).

Does anyone know of a formula to see if it's worth placing an investment in that fund or to leave it in a money market account?

Pros of the short-term treasury funds is that they provide dividends. The cons are that the treasury funds lose value due to rising rates.

Pros of the money-market is that you retain the original principal, but lose out on better dividends.

I had thought also of a municipal fund, but those lost in the last crisis.

I'm with Fidelity.

What are your thoughts?



May 24
A little table talk please, whats looking good for June
by  United States - Colorado Elkhunter | 15 Comments

If I would have stuck with S this month I would have gain 4%, I moved around to much and only got 1.2%, In June will S keep out performing C?

May 23
by  United States cswift01 | 0 Comments

I recently discovered this ... y/overview. If you combine it with the available index fund, then the total expenses are 0.35% per year. Some S&P 500 index funds cost twice that amount even without the cost of an annuity.

Im not normally a fan of annuities, but this is interesting...



May 20
Has something changed? Withdrawel age.
by  United States Benjerman | 8 Comments

Has something changed with TSP withdrawel age? I keep seeing on Fedweek an article saying we can withdraw our funds at age 55 without penalty as long as you retire at this time. It says that TSP participants can do this but most other IRA account particapants are still required to wait until age 59.5 yrs old. If so, it is a gift from god for me.

May 19
Sell in May?
by  United States cswift01 | 9 Comments

It seems like there is a lot of dissonance on the "sell in may" adage. One interesting variation is this: ... a484f43d49


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TSP Share Prices for May 25, 2018
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $15.7086 +0.01% +1.08%
   F Fund $17.7578 +0.23% -1.97%
   C Fund $38.5733 -0.22% +2.56%
   S Fund $50.8938 -0.10% +5.01%
   I Fund $30.8670 -0.41% +0.04%
   L 2050 $19.7678 -0.20% +1.91%
   L 2040 $34.0759 -0.17% +1.78%
   L 2030 $31.2477 -0.14% +1.66%
   L 2020 $27.2447 -0.07% +1.32%
   L Income $19.7836 -0.03% +1.19%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)