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May 22
S&P 500 and the Gold-Silver Ration Correlation
by  grizzly386 | 6 Comments
Interesting article discussing the historical of the S&P 500 and the gold-silver ratio correlation. As the article discusses, take a look at the chart and look at how similiar we are now to 1999 and 2007.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/22/goldsilver-ratio-signals-complacency-risk-of-snap-analysts-say/
May 22
[ Poll ] Possible New YouTube Videos For TSPCenter Members
by  skiehawk11 | 0 Comments
Check out some of their videos. They don't do technical analysis, but they do have good discussions on the economy, etc. They are at most times fairly bearish and they like gold so keep that in mind.
I like their videos just because I like getting perspective from different sources. I'm also on the lookout for other really good economic and financial commentary YouTube channels. Send me links to YouTube channels or post them here.
Thanks!
http://www.youtube.com/user/McalvanyFinancial
May 22
Denial of FED Easing Influence.....ugh
by  dcramer29 | 5 Comments
All winter I've been in denial mode with the FEDS influence of pumping up equities.
Saw a stat that showed that the DOW moves on average of 20% during periods of FED easing.
Starting to move toward the dark side...and just go all in with equities...until hints of FED easing ceases.
May 21
Barry James Market Commentary 20 MAY 2013
by  docrings | 1 Comment
Stock Market Analysis
Conclusions: The Dow and the S&P 500 hit new record highs last week. The Dow surged 1.6% while the S&P jumped 2%. The excitement extended to small cap stocks as well. In spite of the big jump in the indexes, only 19 stocks advanced for every 13 stocks that fell, however, 914 stocks hit new highs and only 74 hit new lows. In the words of Phil Robertson, everybody (but the bears) was “Happy, happy, happy.”
It seems as if the Fed will keep buying bonds forever. They continue to buy $85 billion a month and this makes it very difficult for folks to stay in bank or money market accounts. Our research reveals stocks have risen at a 20% + rate during periods of quantitative easing. The stock market did pull back a bit on the day one of the Fed governors suggested they may stop buying bonds if conditions improve. However, it didn’t last. The big winners on the week were financial stocks, much like we have seen throughout the year. As we pointed out in our December Economic Outlook, financial companies can borrow very inexpensively and they are making very strong profits on the high margins.
Enthusiasm continues to grow. Many sentiment polls have bullish readings of 70% or higher. Barron’s quotes Steve Sosnick, “It’s increasingly hard to come up with the next worry that could derail the market.” I experienced the same attitude when I was on CNBC the previous Friday. I literally could not get a word in edgewise with the hyper bulls. They saw nothing but blue skies and stock prices rising for the foreseeable future. I hope they are right, but our Risk Exposure Ratio says the risk of a significant correction is better than three in four. Momentum mitigates an immediate collapse in stock prices, but risks are rising.
Earnings are weak. The first quarter has only seen a 2.1% increase in earning while revenues actually fell. Valuation levels are not low. The S&P 500 is running a 19.3 PE while the average PE is over 25. Yields are low and stocks are running at 2.5 times book value. Even if the economy improves, it is hard to see how it could help the market any more than is anticipated.
We don’t really see much change in our indicators. Although we don’t yet find evidence that stock prices are at a peak and must decline immediately, risk levels are elevated. A cautionary path is advisable. Market tops are often notoriously long lived and this one will likely be no exception. Investors might use this time to upgrade portfolios, weeding out stocks which have not kept up with the market and replacing them with more promising issues.
Barry R. James, CFA, CIC
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| TSP Share Prices for May 22, 2013 |
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Close |
Day |
YTD |
 |
G Fund |
$14.1042 |
+0.00% |
+0.58% |
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F Fund |
$15.9930 |
-0.30% |
-0.11% |
| |
C Fund |
$21.1013 |
-0.81% |
+17.06% |
| |
S Fund |
$28.5993 |
-1.60% |
+17.51% |
| |
I Fund |
$23.4728 |
-0.04% |
+12.14% |
| |
L 2050 |
$12.6650 |
-0.68% |
+13.65% |
| |
L 2040 |
$22.5959 |
-0.62% |
+12.12% |
| |
L 2030 |
$21.5834 |
-0.52% |
+10.55% |
| |
L 2020 |
$20.3662 |
-0.40% |
+8.42% |
| |
L Income |
$16.2651 |
-0.16% |
+3.46% |
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