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TSP Center Data Call for week of January 20, 2019:            

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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
 
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Newest member: SolSociety
January 18
Chart Discrepancies
by  United States - Florida Navig8tor | 7 Comments

It's going to be interesting to see the rollover tonight. The DWCPF (S Fund) chart connected to this website shows a +2.01% daily increase. Meanwhile, the charts on CNBC and ADVFN show the exact same +1.14% increase. One of them is grossly incorrect.

With that, I wonder how many people bailed today on a 2.01% increase if it turns out it really wasn't. I can understand WHY folks bailed after a sustained push-up (I shoulda done the same last September); however, the DWCPF is above the 50 and below the 200. I'd be willing to bet that a positive twist to the China talks and/or an end to this idiotic government shutdown will result in a Golden Cross in the S-Fund.

Then again, I also didn't "believe" the market was going shed 20% last quarter either. I'll be digging out THAT hole for....a while :lol:




January 16
2018 Fantasy Results
by  United States JimB | 20 Comments

I am just wondering if I’ll ever see the 2018 Fantasy results.




January 14
First year in retirement question.
by  United States cosmo | 2 Comments

I retired on Jan 31, 2018. I was wondering if I receive a W2 for that month, and a 1099R for the remaining eleven months? Or will the 1099R cover the whole year?
If anybody has experience with this, or knows of a good resource to find this answer, it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks, Jack




January 14
Mr. Perfect 2019
by  United States - California fordest | 5 Comments

As I begin the Mr. Perfect 2019 thread here are some things to remember about them:


They must follow all TSP rules but not the laws of nature.... They can time travel. They can go back in time to change allocations if it benefits them. Therefore their moves are not permanent should a better opportunity should arise. But in the end, they can only have two unrestricted moves and a third move to G if needed.

They always move 100% from fund to fund.

They need to start and end each year in G. So they may not actually be making/losing the max they could have made/lost starting in another fund.

They are for entertainment purposes only. They should not be followed as a strategy. The portion of the year ahead of the current date will be for last year's Mr. Perfect and Mr. Imperfect.

Mr. Perfect should not be used to depress you and make you think you should have done better. However, Mr. Imperfect should be used to make you feel better and bring you to the realization that it could be much worse.

I will update them at the beginning of each week for the prior week. (or as closely as I can)

Update as of: 1/11/19

Mr. Perfect - G to F on 1/3 to S on 1/4 - #60764 9.26%
Mr. Imperfect - G to C on 1/3 to F on 1/4 to G on 1/11 - #60766 -3.08%




January 13
The Tomanyian Bullish Meter
by  United States Tomanyiron | 20 Comments

Increased resistance coming soon or is here? What considerations should be given to stocks being overbought? Been some talk about it, and people voicing concerns.

On the flip side, some people see the strong rallying as a sign to be optimistic. That the market has risen far-n-fast as a good sign. A reaction to the oversold (dipped too low, too fast). With expectancy that the rallying will attract a lot more investor’s attention, with more buying.

I to think we have entered the zone for extra considerations. And I would have concerns about buying now. There might be a higher level of risk for possible gain. Eventually, it will reach a price point that buyers think is too high. They will stop buying and start to take profits.

So with limited transfers, what’s a poor Ole TSP market timer to do? Eventually there will be a shift and sellers will start to outnumber buyers. I believe that turning point can not be known in advance, only after the results come in each day.

Overbought rules get broken all the time. And that is why I have devoted time and analysts to try and find the tipping points. Using money flow to measure the buying pressure. Looking at past oscillations, and once in the zone, watch for the trigger. The point where the herd turns and stampedes

Presented here is the Tomanyian Bullish Meter, (please excuse my amour-propre). It has a 0-100 range. Its calculations incorporates both price and volume changes. With some looking back, I see 60 as the start of the zone of exuberance. But sometimes exuberance breeds more exuberance. So I looked for what caused the scare alarm to go off. That’s easy, a sudden dip in money flow.

As you can see on the 2nd chart it's not perfect. And I can’t guarantee that this system will outsmart the market all the time. Most often it will be late, a few time early. But I can tell you that this indicator is better than half of the other ones out there. And produce results that are tuned to the ongoing market conditions.

Friday's reading had no reduction, with no sell trigger.
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January 12
Seasonal strategy with ETFs
by  United States Humberson | 0 Comments

Anyone ever ran a seasonal strategy on Vanguard ETFs? I'm just sitting in the S&P 500 right now but I know there are probably some good seasonal options with the little nuances that Vanguard ETFs allow.




January 12
Strong seasonality of late January
by  United States michigande | 10 Comments

After a long run of positive days back to back, I consulted several dailies that I'm currently guided by. Most begin January in either G or F, but on January 17th or 18th move to S until about January 28th. Looks like a short period of seasonal strength to me, so I checked those approximate dates back to the beginning and here's what I got for that short time period:

'18 +1.56
'17 +1.04
'16 +.52 (included two peaks above 2%)
'15 +.9

'14 -2.49
'13 +1.82
'12 +1.89

'11 -2.89
'10 -4.92

'09 +8.58 - holy crap
'08 +4.35 - same as above
'07 +1.49
'06 +2.31

'05 - ?

average return of 1.08 and 77% of the time positive returns for the period. 13 positive to 3 negative - the negatives were really big though. The positive years only average +2.45. I thought it was impressive enough to share.

I'd love to hear thoughts on this, current indicators versus indicators at the time of these examples, perhaps? I'm too sleepy to see if next week has a historic crushing low to offset the upside...




 
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TSP Share Prices for Jan 18, 2019
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $16.0141 +0.01% +0.14%
   F Fund $18.1417 -0.08% -0.01%
   C Fund $38.3365 +1.32% +6.63%
   S Fund $48.2715 +1.15% +9.76%
   I Fund $28.0609 +0.75% +5.05%
   L 2050 $19.2048 +0.89% +5.35%
   L 2040 $33.3329 +0.78% +4.68%
   L 2030 $30.7988 +0.66% +3.92%
   L 2020 $27.3225 +0.32% +1.97%
   L Income $19.9649 +0.23% +1.40%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)