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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
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17,488 members, 83 online
Newest member: jmorrison
October 16
Question about seasonal investing
by  United States cswift01 | 19 Comments

Dear all,

It seems like many posters have gone to the dailies. I'm still in between seasonal and daily. I' wondering, however, if someone has retained the seasonal return for the past few years. I.e. is there a way to see how the seasonal had operated for 2015 through 2017 and YTD?



October 13
Not Very Encouraging
by  United States Tomanyiron | 5 Comments

John Murphy posted a market message on Sat afternoon. He had comparisons of this bull market's age to a person's life. The full text included several charts. This is the gist of the story.

"BULLS CAN DIE OF OLD AGE... Whenever anyone points out that the current bull market in stocks is in its tenth year and the longest in history, the response I keep hearing is that bull markets don't die of old age. Well, that's partially true. Nothing actually dies of old age. Old age just increases the odds of dying. If there's no illness or accident involved, the reason usually given for a death is "natural causes". But even that catchall phrase implies some causality. And age does matter. Let's compare the number of years in a stock rally to the decades in a person's life. And let's assume that the stock market caught a bad cold this past week. Maybe even a mild case of pneumonia. For someone in their earlier decades of life, that's no big deal. For a person in their tenth decade, however, a cold is a big deal (while pneumonia can be a killer). The main point being that most things become more vulnerable to setbacks as they age. And they don't recover as fast. That's why I believe that sudden market drops like the one we had this week get more dangerous as the bull market ages. The stock market uptrend is in its tenth year. And no bull market has ever lasted more than ten years. Maybe it's just me, but I don't find that very encouraging.

It's usually when things start to go downhill. I keep hearing that stocks should keep rising because the economy remains strong. I've heard that at every market top in the last fifty years. That's always the case at market tops. Stocks always turn down before the economy. That's why stock prices are included as one of the leading indicators of the economy. Speaking of old age, the current U.S. economic expansion is the second oldest in history and is within a year of becoming the oldest. That's also pretty long in the tooth which increases the odds of bad things happening:

- Like bond yields and mortgage rates reaching a seven-year high, while homebuilding stocks are tumbling.

-A Fed that's unwinding a decade of record low interest rates and an unprecedented period of financial repression. Which by the way has never been attempted before.

- It's also not a good sign when stocks fall on good news. Big banks reported double digit earnings gains for the last quarter on Friday, after which an index of bank stocks fell to the lowest level of year.

There's no historical precedent for global central bankers unwinding years of quantitative easing. Yet financial experts keep reassuring us that one of the oldest economic expansions in history is going to keep an even older stock market rally alive. While gauges of foreign stocks are falling to the lowest level in a year as trade tension rise. And all that is happening while economic...

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October 13
Mid-term election years
by  United States seabass | 7 Comments

S&P corrections during years of mid-term elections and what the market did in the 12 months following the correction.

2002 {BUSH} -34% during +34% after
2006 {BUSH} -8% during +24% after
2010 {OBAMA}-16% during +31% after
2014 {OBAMA}-7% during +9% after

History shows solid returns afterwards. :mrgreen:

October 12
Can anyone explain some of the logic going on in the market?
by  United States entfred | 28 Comments

I always thought that the main thing to consider long term is if a company has "value" and provides something to the consumer. This latest crash was supposedly caused by the interest rates going up by the Fed and the tariff battles with China.

If the companies are still making good profits, what would cause the panic to sell all of a sudden? Is it computerized trading doing much of this? Is it an attempt to crash the stocks so they can be brought up for profit a few days (or weeks or months) later?

Or, is most of this just random craziness? :-)

October 12
I switched to -I- today
by  United States - Maryland jimcasada | 4 Comments

I'm betting on the Chinese agreeing to at least talk soon and maybe create a bump up in the -I- fund. Really can't see it going much lower? ... bound.html

October 11
TSPALC question
by  United States cosmo | 2 Comments

Question: With a paid subscription to tspcalc, can u see how a “strategy”
is doing right up to the current date? All I can see now is up to the end
of 2017.

October 11
Fantasy TSP Leader Board
by  United States - Hawaii ProduceMan | 1 Comment

Just broke 1000 today at 999. Been 100% G, will IFT to S soon.

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