Are You Done Hunting for Eggs?
Most of us should not be predicting when and if the market will return to an IFT worthiness. And my fellow missed timed IFTs members might be depressed a little, thinking they are now in the “pool of shame”. The shame is if you don’t spend some time looking at what happen, and learning from it. See if your system has failed, or was this just one bad egg out of a dozen good Easter eggs?
Below, IMO is a list of “What Doesn’t Matter "and “What Does Matter”.
Doesn’t Matter: Developing tactics for every short-term market move or geopolitical risk.
Does Matter: Crafting long-term principles that can guide your actions through multiple scenarios.
Doesn’t Matter: The inevitable market correction.
Does Matter: How you react when stocks fall.
Doesn’t Matter: Predicting the next Black Swan.
Does Matter: Your ability to focus on what’s within your control.
Doesn’t Matter: Trying to explain why the market rose or fell on any given day.
Does Matter: Ignoring the endless noise about daily market moves.
Doesn’t Matter: How rigged you think the CPI inflation calculation is.
Does Matter: Your personal spending inflation.
Doesn’t Matter: The next release of the minutes from the latest Fed meeting.
Does Matter: How much money you save.
Doesn’t Matter: Having the highest IQ in the room.
Does Matter: Developing your emotional intelligence.
Doesn’t Matter: Arguing with people on TSPCenter about their posts.
Does Matter: Keeping the negativity in your life to a minimum.
Doesn’t Matter: How many cars and boats your neighbor owns.
Does Matter: Your amount of debt.
Doesn’t Matter: The next 3-5% move in the stock market.
Does Matter: Increasing the amount you save each year by 3-5%.
Doesn’t Matter: Making occasional mistakes with your finances.
Does Matter: Continuing to make the same mistakes over and over again.
Doesn’t Matter: The latest pundit predictions.
Does Matter: Understanding financial market history.
Doesn’t Matter: The upcoming GDP or unemployment number.
Does Matter: How little you worry about a single piece of economic data.
Doesn’t Matter: Having a positive outcome every single time you invest.
Does Matter: Having a rules-based process.
Doesn’t Matter: Losing money in your portfolio occasionally.
Does Matter: Running out of money before you need it by not taking any risk at all.
Doesn’t Matter: Consistently beating “the market.”
Does Matter: Slowly building wealth over time.
Obviously I’m quoting someone else, and I’m not smart enough to think all this up on my own. But I am smart enough to recognize wise words when I read them. Most of it came from Ben Carlson. http://awealthofcommonsense.com/financial-matters/
I deleted a few on his long list, changed a word or two, (and made one TSP related adaptation).
I'm confused. If I look at "My Fantasy TSP" the bottom box shows:
Year # of Allocations YTD Return (?)
2011 3 Allocation Changes +6.16%
2012 19 Allocation Changes +5.43%
2013 18 Allocation Changes +23.91%
2014 2 Allocation Changes +2.47%
If I Plug in the dates from Jan 2 to today it shows:
Shouldn't these be the same?
Am I missing something?
What's the next move?
Okay, let's refocus back on how to make money in the TSP. No one has been talking about candles and wicks, hammers, moving averages . . . all that smart stuff. Seems like it got quiet when the market slipped a bit.
So . . . what's next?
What is the real cost of a TSP/401K Loan?
Most financial publications are against borrowing from your 401K/TSP for various reasons (lost growth opportunity, need to pay within 60 days if separated from job, double taxation on interest) but are their circumstances where it is a “smart decision” to borrow from your TSP?
Or where timing is good?
I borrowed $19K from my TSP on 3/28 and 100% S fund, and shares were sold at 34.0495 and as of yesterday 4/16 the S fund price is 33.6592. If shares are being bought with my loan payments at cheaper than what they were sold at is it actually a good thing assuming it eventually goes higher?
Is it just dumb luck that the market took a dive right after your TSP loan or could someone borrow the max $50k and then just sit on it (making the smallest repayments bi-weekly) and then immediately make a coupon payment for the entire balance during the bottom of a correction? Could one with skill in charting make an educated TSP loan that was wise and not have to worry about utilizing an IFT to G fund and gaining more shares when the money is put back?
And lastly after one has repaid a TSP loan is there a way to calculate the actual cost of it? Maybe calculating all the loan repayment shares purchased?
Change your mind on Transfer, can you reverse it?
So lets say you put in a trade (tsp.gov) before noon. Then later (say 3pm) you find all this bad news about the markets. Can you withdraw your trade?
[ Poll ] TSPCenter Poll: Do you match fantasy with real TSP account?
This question was asked some time ago and a TSPCenter member recommended that we run a survey/poll. It'll be very interesting to see the number/percentage of TSPCenter member's that do and don't reflect their real TSP account with their Fantasy one.
If we can get past Jeffvan2's exciting post
for a minute, here's a thought as to why the markets-- at least in our eyes-- tanked the past 2 weeks. I'm thinking a lot of options were made based on lower share prices. And because of the money involved in these trades, the market "bowed" to the pressure. If this is correct, I am hoping that the turnaround that happened today indicates the majority of lower share price options have been closed out and shares will rise into the end of the Options Expiration Friday. Expiration Week normally does not follow this pattern. And that makes the results that more rewarding to the traders who caused this because now they can buy options on stocks at lower prices with the expectation that the unemployment rate, manufacturing rate and retail sales improvement will provide a base for prices to rise. And they make more money. Unfortunately I have not heard the Najarian brothers on CNBC support my position, and I'm not that knowledgeable of how options work (please don't try to explain it, stay with me on my hypothesis of what happened) but it would not surprise me that this was all done in legal SEC rule fashion. And those of us who projected out all the charts we follow and decided the market had to go up, got caught mitt der hose in der hand as they say in Germany. IMHO. Does this make sense? Let's hope so and wait for the results of the litmus test that will be revealed with Friday's closing market values. Good luck to all.
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