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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
 
--- Member Statistics ---
15,754 members, 113 online
Newest member: darmic3
September 21
Cone of Uncertainty
by  United States 12squared | 7 Comments

Most of the popular Dailys followed almost the same course from July-mid-September. However, the multitude of options for late September suggests a lack of consensus among the models.

Which is the best path - and why?
Image
September 21
Fun with TSPCalc
by  United States - California fordest | 7 Comments

I really like playing with this thing. Here was what I did last night:

I imagined that we had TSPcalc in 2005. With only one previous year of data. And I was so bad at investing that I didn't care if it only had one year, I was gonna follow it anyway. So I followed the leader. Then, every year I switched to the new leader. My results were interesting.

----

In 2004 the leader was 5524 so I would have gotten 16.62% in 2005. I would have been disappointed because 5524 got 36.94% in 2004. This thing doesn't work!!

But, I am so bad at investing I decide that 16% is better than I have been doing. So, in 2006 I go with 14699 because it's the new leader after 2005. I am relieved that I stuck with it, because I made 34.03% this year.

I did so well last year, that I am going to keep it up for sure. Moved to 12501 in 2007 and made only 12.07%.

Not very happy because I thought things were going to get better, I decide to try again but move to 10140, the new leader after 2007. Then I was devastated when I lost 2.44% What??? negative number? This thing is really NOT WORKING!!!!!

But, I quickly realize that the buy-and-holders lost over 30% in 2008, so I consider myself lucky and decide to try this one more time. I follow 14275 this year because it's the leader after 2008. And no wonder. It got 154% in 2008. Why wasn't I following this strategy???? But I ended 2009 with a decent 31.5% anyway.

Well, I can't stop now. It's 2010 and the new leader is 10942. So I go for it and earn an amazing 44.38%.

Pumped up after that, for 2011 I go to the new leader 10830 and I get an even higher 46.95%

This thing is starting to be unbelievable so I keep going. The 10932 is my new choice for 2012. I earn 35.91% and I am not too upset with that.

2012 does not see a change in the leader so I am sticking with 10932. For 2013 I would earn 34.84%.

This combination seems like it's going to the new golden goose because it's still leading when I choose a strategy for 2014. I end up earning only 11.62%.

Slightly disheartened. I urge myself to continue when I look at my TSP balance. Still no change in the leader, surprisingly enough. 10932 is still doing the best through 2014. 2015's return sees only 12.38% and maybe that's just the way things are now.

But a new leader brings me hope for 2016 and I decide to go for it and follow 10908. It pays off, and I earn 24.47%. Getting better again.

2017 sees me following 11006 despite everybody else on TSP Center discovering this tool and starting to follow 10716 or 7980 or some other variations. I stay the course and so far this year I would have earned 20.73% with the best gains of the year likely to come.

----

If that had been my life, I would have earned an average of 23.26% from 2004 to 2016. I think I would take that.




September 21
Scrap the F Fund??
by  United States Chulke | 16 Comments

Is it time to start thinking about scrapping the F Fund from our seasonal strategies? With the FED beginning to raise interest rates the F fund is going to start tanking soon right? And to be honest I'm not impressed with the returns the F fund gives, its only averaging 2.63ish over the last 5 years...which is right on par with the G fund basically.

So why not cut the anguish over watching the F fund tank most of a month, like this month, and just settle for the lower and safer G fund return for those months that call for F fund in our seasonal strategies.

Just something to gnaw on...Aitrus...Is there a seasonal strategy that uses G fund in place of the F fund? If so, what was the CAGR?

I've got to really think about this...I might loose some potential, albeit small, gains but gain some sleep and keep what little hair I have left from turning the rest of the way gray. LOL!


Decisions, Decisions??


Cheers!




September 21
What goes up must come down....
by  United States RozcoJC | 6 Comments

I can't stop but wonder if this market will ever correct itself . Obviously no one knows the answer to this otherwise they would be rich :lol: . I'm just curious to see what others think. People with more educated guesses let's hear your thoughts . So much for what goes up must come do wn huh. I just hope if that bubble does burst I'm in that G or F fund. As always thank you guys for hearing me out




September 21
Mean%
by  United States Thirty3 | 2 Comments

what is Mean?




September 20
Question for 10716 followers
by  United States - California fordest | 7 Comments

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned yet that we have a new leader. So. Will you leader followers change your strategy? In reality leader followers should have been following 11006 since 10716 was only leading because of this year. And the part of the year that's over won't affect the part hats left. But obviously that's not the case. So. What's next? Stay with 10716 or switch?




September 20
Fed Balance and the G fund
by  United States Moose | 1 Comment

2 questions:
What effect will the FED reducing balance have on the G fund? and..
I might have missed something...the market outlook is as green as I have ever seen it but the preferred fund has been G fund for some time, why?
Thanks :o




 
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TSP Share Prices for Sep 20, 2017
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $15.4407 +0.01% +1.67%
   F Fund $18.0356 -0.14% +3.37%
   C Fund $35.1006 +0.06% +13.69%
   S Fund $45.3662 +0.36% +10.66%
   I Fund $29.6496 +0.17% +20.52%
   L 2050 $18.4386 +0.12% +12.94%
   L 2040 $31.9953 +0.10% +11.59%
   L 2030 $29.5486 +0.08% +10.11%
   L 2020 $26.1988 +0.05% +7.03%
   L Income $19.2193 +0.02% +4.39%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)