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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
 
--- Member Statistics ---
18,721 members, 92 online
Newest member: mmilholen
December 11
Who uses the L Income Fund?
by  United States TLuke | 0 Comments

For those 62 or older retirees, who uses the L Income Fund as their primary TSP account?




December 10
Seasonal Momentum this year
by  United States ronh227 | 7 Comments

Now that we are getting close to the end of the year I was comparing seasonal performance for this year looking at the YTD graphs of various seasonals and C,S,I. I looked at 2 high risk, defined as high STD > 9 (#79607 and #79602) and 2 low risk, defined as lows STD < 3 (#85660 and #64902). I noticed for all of them they really did not outperform C,S,I until about early to mid August. Is that normal for seasonals? Do they take a while to "get going"? Being retired soon and wanting to protect my TSP I am leaning toward following 85660 in 2020 (Mean 28.4 and STD 2.3). The worst year in this strat was around 25.7 just last year. I am a newbie to the seasonals. Am I naieve to believe that if I follow this to the letter the worst I can do is close to 26%? Thanks for any help/insight.




December 10
A bit puzzling
by  United States cswift01 | 0 Comments

Dear all,

I look forward to some input from you guys. Hopefully you can provide me with suggestions.

I'm having a problem with some of my backtesting and I'm trying to make a decision. I'll present both options and see what the group suggests:

A. In the year 1999 and onwards, the S-Fund returns a better amount from the 26th of August until the 31st. The further I check (e.g. 2010), the stronger this place is for my strategy. It also mirrors what most strategies from TSPCalc show. If I look at my overall CAGR I'm looking at 26.38% (1999-2019, option A) vs. 26.31% (1999-2019, option B). If I go to 2010 this strategy yields a CAGR of 25.53% (option A) vs. a CAGR of 24.12% (option B). That's a big difference over a 10 year period.

B. From 1988 through 1999, the S Fund returns a better amount from August 11 through 17th. The returns are quite a bit higher. My CAGR would be 26.67% (option B) vs. the new strategy CAGR of 25.39% (option A). Again, a big difference.

If I go from 1988 to 2019 here is the difference in CAGR:

Option A 26.04% (option A), standard deviation 13.46%
Option B 26.44% (option B), standard deviation 13.22%

Over a 31 year period, the .40% ends up being $1.7 million more in the grand total.

I'm thinking, however, of moving towards option A. I'm thinking the relationship has changed a bit, thereby causing the outperformance in the latter half of August.

The reason I have to select these options is because we only get 2 moves. With 3 I would have many more options. :-)

I would be curious to see what others think.

Thanks,

Me




December 09
Epic December??
by  United States VAmanBulls | 11 Comments

Everything is in place to make this an epic December for positive gains. The consumer continues to drive the economy and markets. Unemployment slid to 3.5%. That's great! A record Black Friday with online sales hitting $7.4B. I bought some golf cart tires so you can thank me a little for that. November chain store sales for Nov up 5.3% Y/Y. These are not recession numbers folks. I know a lot of the seasonal playbooks call for a S fund buy on the 10th or 11th trading day. Could be epic. The only possible Grinch I see is the 15 December China deadline.




December 08
What I wish I knew about Daily Seasonals at the Beginning
by  United States mmmmmbeer | 2 Comments

On the Facebook page a self proclaimed noob asked the question, what do know now you wish you knew at the beginning of your seasonal journey.

My response is below:

A couple of things I've learned that stick out in the last few years I've been involved (since the beginning):

#1: The Strategies are not infallible. They are not a crystal ball. Sometimes they do not work. Understand this going in. It came as quite a shock to most of us when our chosen strategy for 2018, the #20241 returned negative the first 5 months of the year. It devastated my confidence in these things and most of us bailed on this as a bad experiment. Although I switched strategies at that point in May to the 45545, I tried to "use it as a guide" instead of following it correctly. Now eventually most of us had a worse year in 2018 than if we would have stayed in our strategy. Which leads me to my second point.

#2: Stay strictly with the moves of your strategy. Either do it, or don't. In the eternal words of the great philosopher Ron Swanson, "Don't half ass two things. Whole ass one thing.". These strategies are very dangerous if done lackadaisically. An early, missed, or ignored IFT can really bite you in the butt hard. I think much more so than just a straight buy and hold, because now you're off cycle and really statistically in probably one of the worst places to be in the market for that time period. I've lost over -$11,000 in one day because I made the conscious decision to move a day early with IFT into the market, trying to time my enterence to gain a little better profit. That one day cost me > -3% of my account.

So... To summerize a lot of words; sometimes these don't work exactly as planned, but they seem to be better even in failure than the market. And secondly... In my experience and the words of Yodi, Jedi Master, either do them or do not. There is no try. I think it's more harmful to piss around doing them than it is to be totally out either doing a straight buy and hold or swing trading.




December 07
Lump-sum annual leave payment to TSP ???
by  United States T-Boy | 6 Comments

If you retire at the end of a year and receive a Lump-sum annual leave payment
the following year, can you use any of it as a contribution to TSP ?

If so, what are the steps to accomplish this ?




December 06
Wish I knew about these before...
by  United States cswift01 | 4 Comments

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petiti ... vings-plan

https://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/rever ... transfers/

Reason for the season:

https://www.plansponsor.com/tsp-places- ... transfers/




 
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    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $16.3329 +0.00% +2.13%
   F Fund $19.7125 +0.02% +8.65%
   C Fund $45.7815 -0.11% +27.34%
   S Fund $54.8405 -0.06% +24.70%
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   L 2050 $21.9387 -0.10% +20.35%
   L 2040 $37.6050 -0.08% +18.10%
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AGG (F Fund)
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S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
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