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11,239 members, 28 online
Newest member: bgp8570
January 29
Got Caught with Pants Down
by  United States Tomanyiron | 11 Comments

“Breaking News: Strong US Dollar having negative impact on company revenues and profits!” I got reminded that there are costs to a stronger dollar when we peg economic evaluation on the strength of our currency.

Something else: "By underlining 'international developments', the Fed is highlighting that process and the attraction of the U.S. as an investment destination. That all plays in to dollar strength," said Ian Stannard, head of European FX strategy with Morgan Stanley in London.

So did the Greenback cause Wednesday’s plunge? It kinda looks like it. So where do we go from here, is the US dollar going down soon?
But should the S fund have got hit so badly? Logic would say that stocks of small companies would do better than those of large ones at times when the dollar is strong. After all, those small-caps generally rely less on international operations, and therefore have less exposure to currency effects that could reduce the dollar value of foreign sales and erode earnings growth.

If it was the US Dollar then I may have a chart to give us encouragement.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p ... =387178637

As you can see this is a daily chart of the US Dollar index (green line) for the past year. The blue line ($EMW) is overlaid to compare small caps ups and down relationship. The Stochastics RSI indicator is at the top, and is calculated based on $USD’s actions. Remember that “based on $USD’s actions”. The relationship of the two lines is not apparent until you focus on the Stoch RSI’s past actions and results. Look at the times when the Stoch RSI dipped below 0.2, six times in the past year that was a good buy signal.

Okay I’m just one guy with a “thought” and a “two cents worth”, so take that under advisement. But I will give you another chart to consider. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =384816654

This is a two year chart of the S&P 500, what has happened when price has dipped down to the 125-day moving average? I know that one time it plowed through, and that can happen now. But hey, they don’t call it “risk” for nothing.

Note: Please excuse any misspelled words or improper English. I have a lot to do today, and in a hurry.




January 28
What to do? Bull or Bear?
by  United States BarbosaBLZ | 8 Comments

I just started TSP 3 years ago. I didn't seriously start putting money into my TSP until last year. I have less than 20k altogather. I am active duty in the military and currently put about 18% of my income into TSP.

I learned the hard way last year as I saw that each time I tried to move $ around I chose poorly and have horrible timing. That made me decide to just pick a fund and come rain or shine stick with it. It seems things are looking kind of bearish. Still hopefully having 20 or so years until retirement should I just leave my stuff where it is 75% in C and 25% in F or brace for a bear market and switch to heavier G and F?

Just looking for advice?




January 28
I'm growing fur!
by  United States - Kentucky Sad Al | 14 Comments

You can check my record and see I'm no stock market guru. I've been too freaked by the 2007-2008 crash that I've been far to wary for far too long. I am always looking for the next big crash, and expecting it to begin with the next dip.

But that being said, this article seems to validate my often wrong gut feeling that it has been far too long since the bear scared the bejeezus out of the bull: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/too-la ... eid=YAHOOB

Now I am at a critical stage of my life. A 20-40% loss would be devastating, and not much time is left for me to make it up when the bull returns to greener pastures. How I wish it had happened two years ago and we were in the beginnings of a recovery today.

What do you think? Does the article have merit? Do you see other signs of an imminent bear market? Predictions for 2015 were not robust, but at least a profit by the end of the year, has all that changed?




January 27
Bilizzard Effect the Markets?
by  United States Tomanyiron | 10 Comments

Today the US north-east is under severe snow storm warning, high winds and coastal flooding. At this point some airports are closed and I heard that well over 3,000 flights were canceled. The Big Apple is facing what will likely be "one of the worst snowstorms in the history of this city," said Mayor Bill de Blasio. Exchanges are planning to open as usual on Tuesday. And I think most trader's have the ability to work remotely. I'm guessing volume will probably be very low though. Markets can get pushed easy then.
Crondanet, you hunkered down, looking out those new windows at the snow yet?




January 23
Roth IRA/401k TSP
by  United States kaclemen | 15 Comments

All doing some digging and a lot of books talking about the benfefit of Roth IRA and Roth 401k

Basically stating tax deferred retirements accounts are bad because your investing the governments money along with yours and the tax bracket is bound to rise in the future taking more of your final pieCe of pie.

Roth (tax now, no tax later) and traditional (contribute before tax,tax later)

My question is do we have Roth 401k option (17,500/max per year) or do we only have Roth IRA option (5500/max per year). I am contributing to Roth IRA and expect to max it out but if we have way to maximize beyond 5500 I would prefer to do that. Also what happens once you reach Roth limit does tsp automatically roll % contribute into traditional tsp or do they put it back into paycheck?

Thoughts on this topic would be greatly appreciated. Should I look into a separate Roth 401k to protect future assets? Tsp just seems like such a good benfefit with low fees and great funds. But I hate to be sitting on $1,500,000 come 65 only to find out the tax bracket is 60% and my nest egg is only worth $600,000.00 after tax.




January 22
Risk ON Baby!
by  United States Tomanyiron | 37 Comments

You ever heard “Make Hay While the Sun Shines”? Some people might not be familiar with that phrase, its means when an opportunity comes along, try to make the most benefit from it. Or as Yogi Berra said “When you come to a fork in the road....Take it”. Sometimes opportunity comes and you’re not expecting it, if your mind was leaning one way, you might have to switch gears fast and decide. Which fork do I “Take”, is one a trap, a trick, was the sign false? We never know until after the biggest benefit has pasted.

These past days when the market has had the zigs and zags, there’s not been much benefit to making a move. Money and world politics, the things that make the stock market a harsh mistress. And the news, how do we hack our way through the forests of misinformation and hype?

However we like it when the market seams to have a goal. And looks like everyone wants to take on risk, and make some money. It would be nice if we could do it without the risk, without the potential sacrifice of our own hard earned money. It doesn’t work that way. On top of that, the gratification (if it comes at all) is going to be delayed, “un-realized gain” until you take the money off the table.

I was temped to transfer to G a day or two ago, F was starting to look toppy. And at the same time, stocks still looked to have more down-side to go. I delayed because it would have been my second IFT for Jan. No way to re-enter before Feb 1. My charts were having a tough time lately. But I drew some lines that make some sense to me. It’s nice when the market respects my lines. Scary, isn't it?

I’m going to take all 100% and speculate on the S Fund. Do you notice, I’m posting and transferring before the market even opens? Scary also.




January 21
How to turn $100m into $200k
by  United States nomny2020 | 3 Comments

If you have a bad day, week, month or even year, just remember that you are doing better than this guy (at least I hope!!!).

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102356275

Scary things happen when people get desperate.

But on the other hand http://nypost.com/2015/01/21/this-hedge ... oil-crash/

Sometimes you’re the bug,…




 
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TSP Share Prices for Jan 29, 2015
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $14.6412 +0.01% +0.17%
   F Fund $17.0998 -0.13% +1.77%
   C Fund $26.6987 +0.96% -1.72%
   S Fund $36.1736 +0.90% -0.34%
   I Fund $24.6362 +0.51% +1.73%
   L 2050 $14.9220 +0.69% -0.24%
   L 2040 $26.3285 +0.61% -0.19%
   L 2030 $24.7751 +0.53% -0.13%
   L 2020 $22.8891 +0.41% -0.04%
   L Income $17.4712 +0.16% +0.12%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)