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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
 
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10,358 members, 23 online
Newest member: cash_in
April 17
What's the next move?
by  United States - Texas RGEN | 1 Comment

Okay, let's refocus back on how to make money in the TSP. No one has been talking about candles and wicks, hammers, moving averages . . . all that smart stuff. Seems like it got quiet when the market slipped a bit.

So . . . what's next?




April 17
What is the real cost of a TSP/401K Loan?
by  United States - Arizona aarvizo | 2 Comments

Most financial publications are against borrowing from your 401K/TSP for various reasons (lost growth opportunity, need to pay within 60 days if separated from job, double taxation on interest) but are their circumstances where it is a “smart decision” to borrow from your TSP?
Or where timing is good?

I borrowed $19K from my TSP on 3/28 and 100% S fund, and shares were sold at 34.0495 and as of yesterday 4/16 the S fund price is 33.6592. If shares are being bought with my loan payments at cheaper than what they were sold at is it actually a good thing assuming it eventually goes higher?

Is it just dumb luck that the market took a dive right after your TSP loan or could someone borrow the max $50k and then just sit on it (making the smallest repayments bi-weekly) and then immediately make a coupon payment for the entire balance during the bottom of a correction? Could one with skill in charting make an educated TSP loan that was wise and not have to worry about utilizing an IFT to G fund and gaining more shares when the money is put back?

And lastly after one has repaid a TSP loan is there a way to calculate the actual cost of it? Maybe calculating all the loan repayment shares purchased?




April 16
Change your mind on Transfer, can you reverse it?
by  United States kcmusa | 4 Comments

So lets say you put in a trade (tsp.gov) before noon. Then later (say 3pm) you find all this bad news about the markets. Can you withdraw your trade?




April 16
[ Poll ] TSPCenter Poll: Do you match fantasy with real TSP account?
by  United States - Washington DC skiehawk11 | 4 Comments

This question was asked some time ago and a TSPCenter member recommended that we run a survey/poll. It'll be very interesting to see the number/percentage of TSPCenter member's that do and don't reflect their real TSP account with their Fantasy one.




April 15
If we can get past Jeffvan2's exciting post
by  United States crondanet5 | 2 Comments

for a minute, here's a thought as to why the markets-- at least in our eyes-- tanked the past 2 weeks. I'm thinking a lot of options were made based on lower share prices. And because of the money involved in these trades, the market "bowed" to the pressure. If this is correct, I am hoping that the turnaround that happened today indicates the majority of lower share price options have been closed out and shares will rise into the end of the Options Expiration Friday. Expiration Week normally does not follow this pattern. And that makes the results that more rewarding to the traders who caused this because now they can buy options on stocks at lower prices with the expectation that the unemployment rate, manufacturing rate and retail sales improvement will provide a base for prices to rise. And they make more money. Unfortunately I have not heard the Najarian brothers on CNBC support my position, and I'm not that knowledgeable of how options work (please don't try to explain it, stay with me on my hypothesis of what happened) but it would not surprise me that this was all done in legal SEC rule fashion. And those of us who projected out all the charts we follow and decided the market had to go up, got caught mitt der hose in der hand as they say in Germany. IMHO. Does this make sense? Let's hope so and wait for the results of the litmus test that will be revealed with Friday's closing market values. Good luck to all.




April 15
I'm back for just a minute
by  United States jeffvan2 | 30 Comments

Forum: General TSP Discussion Topic: The Messiah of Moola
crondanet5

Post subject: Re: The Messiah of Moola
Posted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:22 pm

Replies: 15
Views: 443

One of his greatest fans was Jeffvan1 who admired him for never losing money in an IFT. Were you to lose your mirth and study what actually happened today, where everyone else is contemplating a major market drop, TSProphet went whole hog ...

Forum: General TSP Discussion Topic: ***Time to make a decision with real money for my future***

jackyl33

Post subject: Re: ***Time to make a decision with real money for my future

Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 12:03 pm



Replies: 31
Views: 1443


I started a seasonal approach this past year and then I started to follow some of the leaders here. Sad to see Jeffvan1 leave, but I've been keeping an eye on the other leaders. So far the market does seem to have a definite seasonal trend. I would recommend this strategy, and ...



Forum: General TSP Discussion Topic: Contributions strategy

crondanet5

Post subject: Re: Contributions strategy

Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 8:15 am



Replies: 4
Views: 744


... the I Fund? We'll see. Let's go back to question 1. Instead of leaving your contribution allocation on autopilot to the G Fund, I believe it was Jeffvan1 who revealed you can change your new money allocation every pay period. That way you could specifically place it in the corrrect fund you believe ...



Forum: General TSP Discussion Topic: Seasonal allocations definition

mkw52

Post subject: Re: Seasonal allocations definition

Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:43 am



Replies: 18
Views: 1091


wow...sorry to hear of the loss of jeffvan1, always seemed to be a voice of reason and caution. appreciated the expertise and willingness to share....



The above comments were some of the "praises" I received when I was active on this site. After retiring I rolled my TSP into IRA Mutual Funds which basically mirrored the C and S fund indexes. I am pleased to announce that my IRA now totals over $1,000,000,000.00 which I consider to be quite an achievement since I was a CSRS employee and never rec'd matching gov't contributions. I do have to give a tip of the hat and credit, where credit is due, to the single government employee who out of 2.5 million employees, has a TSP balance of over $4,000,000,000.00. So you see it can be done. I'll bet most of you didn't know that there are approximately 1500 TSP millionaires working for the government right now. Anyway, the reason I'm here is because we have established a TSP Investment Advisory Board (of which two of those millionares are Board Members). If you are interested in joining our group you MUST have the ability for us to contact you via e-mail, phone, or text so that you can make interfund transfers THE DAY we make a recommendation. It is free to join for one month. After that it costs $120.00 a month,...

Continue Reading...




April 14
Weighing the Week(s) Ahead
by  United States Tomanyiron | 0 Comments

I'm out of IFT's until May, but I still read a few words on the blogs to see if anyone's got any logical points of view. I found this interesting entry by Jeff Miller. After general comments he has a long laundry list of the good and bad. http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_in ... ktail.html

Naturally we would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. Good luck with that! Second best is planning what to look for and how to react.

This week brings the makings of an explosive volatility cocktail:
1.Important economic data;
2.Key Q1 earnings reports;
3.Options expiration;
4.A short trading week; and
5.An edgy market environment.

This is a very unusual combination, and the various elements will compete for attention.
Much depends upon the corporate earnings reports. If earnings disappoint, it will be seized upon as confirmation of the bad economy, expensive stocks meme. Volatility will increase. Moves during options expiration can be exaggerated, since strike prices formerly thought to be irrelevant come into play. Markets could move much lower.

If earnings satisfy, it might have a calming effect. This will be especially true if we get a little more confidence in forward outlook, some hints about future hiring, and more planned capital expenditures. In that case we could have a rebound, with plenty of reduction in the VIX.





 
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