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TSP Center - The Thrift Savings Plan Community
 
"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
 
--- Member Statistics ---
13,129 members, 23 online
Newest member: DsMan
July 22
Know your zero. Brought to you by math.
by  United States - Florida usps2013 | 3 Comments

I am confident this has been posted at some point, but it always bears reminding.

I see lots of folks talk about a drop in the market or taking a loss on a failed IFT. Most just want to get the loss back, i.e., get back to zero. In percentages, zero moves around a little bit. For example, the nominal loss from a 10% decline is not recovered by a subsequent 10% gain (100 - 10% = 90; and 90 + 10% = 99).

If you want to know "your" zero, here is the math:

X = (A / (1 - (A / 100)))
I
X = your zero %
A = the % decline

E.g., if I lose 5% in one move, I must recover 5.2% to get back all my losses.

X = (5 / ( 1 - (5 / 100)))
.05
1 - .05 = .95
5 / .95 = 5.26315

X = 5.2...

Good luck and remain cognizant of your real goal.




July 21
100% S since June 20th... Thinking about jumping to F??
by  United States JBice2040 | 5 Comments

Does anyone have advice on jumping to F? Is it a good time? Do you think S will hit it's top?

Thank you in advance!
Josh




July 20
[ Poll ] Will a National Infrastructure Bill Increase Economic Growth
by  United States - Washington DC skiehawk11 | 35 Comments

The title says it all, "Will a National Infrastructure Bill Increase Economic Growth?"

Specifically, will the U.S. economy improve if the U.S. government spends 3.6 trillion dollars over the course of 5 years to add , replace, and maintain infrastructure in the United States?

http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/




July 19
Stock/Bond Market Education...
by  United States esiekman | 2 Comments

Looking for suggested reading, suggested videos, suggested seminars, etc. that a "newbie" would be able to comprehend and build a strong investment foundation from.

Interested in learning more about stocks and what affects the market. What indicators should I be looking for that may make the market go up or down. Looking for the same thing with bonds. Looking for general education, but also if there is anything that relates specifically to the TSP, I would obviously be interested in that as well.

Thank you.




July 18
New to TSP, thoughts on allocation
by  United States lmbebo | 15 Comments

Hi

So I am transitioning into the federal/FERS system from the private sector. I hope to work 20-25 years. I would be maxing out my TSP yearly (18k) right now. Since I have time to let things grow and don't mind a moderate amount of risk, I was looking at allocating my funds as such:

35% G Fund, 30% C Fund, 25% S Fund and I Fund for the remaining 10%. A 65/35 ratio. The alternative would be to put it into a L2040 or L2050 self managed fund (one is a bit less aggressive and the other is a bit more aggressive).

Just curious what people are using as the history index of growth on these funds? the 3, 5 or 10 year percentage?




July 18
Don't Fall for TSP Timing Advice
by  United States - Maryland rcozby | 52 Comments

From the July issues of Federal Times, one man's opinion...

"For investors planning to rely on their invested resources to provide cash flow in retirement, market timing is a bad idea. There is so much wrong with it that it’s difficult to know where to begin or end, but I’ll try to hit the high points here.

Market timing in a Thrift Savings Plan account means electing to deviate from the optimum asset allocation scheme for a period of time. The optimum allocation scheme is the one that will support your lifetime financial goals with the minimum possible risk. The optimum allocation scheme takes into account all known risks, including the risk of changes in fund share prices.

If determined and used properly, the optimum allocation scheme will reliably support your cash flow needs in retirement without the need to predict or react to sudden market moves. Combined with your spending plan, it should anticipate and leave a cushion sufficient to absorb these moves.

The reason for taking this approach is that it’s impossible to reliably predict the future of fund share prices or to compensate for unpredicted changes after they have occurred, which is what market timing pretends to be able to accomplish.

If owning a particular combination of TSP funds will produce a particular return over a period of time, then the only reason for deviation would be to try to improve on that return. However, deviation has two possible outcomes: The resulting return will be either better or worse, but there is no way to know which of these is more likely. No one has found a way to reliably beat the optimum allocation in your TSP account when risk is taken into account. Trying to do so using market timing is a speculative endeavor. It’s a bet against the odds at worst, and a blind bet at best.

Various systems for timing your TSP investments are being promoted as the solution to a problem. They include a variety of methods, but all share in common some way of providing you with a signal to change your asset allocation scheme that is unrelated to your specific circumstances. Without exception, they are being promoted by sources that are either unscrupulous or ignorant, and they are part of the problem faced by TSP investors, rather than a solution.

Believing that there is some systematic way to predictably beat a market without exposing yourself to greater risk demonstrates a profound lack of understanding about how the TSP’s funds, and the markets they represent, work. Even if this logic doesn’t convince you that such systems are nothing more than 21st-century snake oil, it should be obvious that the promoters of these strategies have absolutely no understanding of your circumstances, goals or resources, and aren’t in any position to advise you in how you manage your money.

If, like most TSP investors, you are relying on your TSP account to provide you...

Continue Reading...




July 17
Looking for comparable ETFs
by  United States crondanet5 | 31 Comments

that mirror the TSP share prices. Can anyone help?




 
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TSP Share Prices for Jul 22, 2016
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $15.0679 +0.00% +1.02%
   F Fund $17.9141 -0.01% +5.66%
   C Fund $29.6983 +0.46% +7.75%
   S Fund $37.8974 +0.66% +7.55%
   I Fund $23.8782 -0.42% -0.90%
   L 2050 $15.7398 +0.19% +4.75%
   L 2040 $27.7612 +0.17% +4.48%
   L 2030 $26.0869 +0.14% +4.08%
   L 2020 $23.9678 +0.10% +3.27%
   L Income $18.1742 +0.05% +2.26%
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DWCPF (S Fund)
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EFA (I Fund)
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)