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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
 
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12,017 members, 41 online
Newest member: Bhall59052
September 02
Strategy Question About G Contributions Then Buying Low
by  United States bsibary | 0 Comments

I'm sure this question has been asked before, but I can't seem to enter the right search criteria to find a related post. I was thinking about allocating my bi-weekly contributions to the G Fund and then buying into C and S during low times. Since the G Fund doesn't move much, it would act as a piggy bank until I want to buy in at lower share prices vs. bi-weekly contributes buying C and S when their prices are high.

Any thoughts?




September 02
Moving Average & Volatility Filters To Determine TSP Trades
by  United States - Washington DC skiehawk11 | 0 Comments

Hey everyone,

It's been a while since I've posted a trade strategy proposal for the TSP. The strategy returns 11.4 percent annualized over approximately 28 years compared to buy and hold which averaged 4.6 percent annualized. As a caveat, I used log returns instead of the standard (P1-P0)/P0.

Log Return Explanation

Below are the parameters and the resulting chart:

Index Used: Russell 2000 (^RUT)
Bond ETF: VWESX
Data: Monthly Returns from Yahoo
Date Range: September 10, 1987 - September 1, 2015
Starting Balance: 1,000 dollars

Filters Used:
* 10 month EMA;
* standard deviation of returns modified to reflect whether the standard deviation was negative of positive (If return < 0 then -STDEV otherwise STDEV)

Trigger 1:
If price > EMA and if stdev is between 0 and 35 then ^RUT otherwise VWESX

Trigger 2:
If price < EMA and if stdev is between -15 and 75 then ^RUT otherwise VWESX

Combining the triggers results in the below returns.

Image
September 02
:arrow: Buy and Hold
by  United States - Alabama LoGiK | 3 Comments

I know this is a more active trader forum...does anyone buy and hold? I know this is generally frowned upon here but every successful investor has been a buy-and-hold one. Over the past few months I've become very interested in it and have read some books and have 3/4 more to read. The biggest piece of into that sticks out to me is this:

Since 1802-2008 an initial investment of $10,000, with all dividends reinvested and ignoring taxes, would have resulted in a value of $5.6 BILLION with an average of 7% return annually after inflation. Bonds would have had a 3.5% return resulting in $8 Million. GRANTED that is a 206 year period...but the data doesn't lie. There is less risk if an investment is held long time - 10/25/50 years vs. if you're trying to time the system.

“The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently.” - John Bogle




September 01
TSP Forcast for 31 Aug - Pvt Snaffu
by  United States - Georgia snaffu | 18 Comments

I'm Done with my Family business out of town... What'd I miss????

My position: 50/50 G/S-Fund. Considering 100% F..

AGG / F Fund:... Both Fast and Slow STO's are below 20... good position for positive movement.. MACD is high and may be turning down.. not sure how to read that one.. price could move positive, but with not as much momentum.

SPX / C Fund:... At first glance, I thought this might be a rest at the mid point thru a positive retracement.. but then realized, the down swing had no rest... So, the positive swing last week may have been the rest for the downward movement from the previous week.. (OUCH) If that's the case, then look for another 200 point drop on the S&P.. MACD is low and may be turning up.. could be same as with AGG, just letting off some steam.
- If my initial idea is correct, and this is just a resting stop, a day or two neutral or down days are to be expected,, then continue back up near where this last down swing started..

DWCPF / S Fund:... Same as C Fund.. if we don't have an up day soon, look for a 100 point drop here..

EFA / I Fund:... Ditto..


Other Charts....
DOW Index , CNBC Pre-Markets

I Watched Tradesmarts vid from Sunday... Their overall position is early Sept will dip again to recent lows, maybe lower... Then rally to about levels of mid Jul for a retest.. If it doesn't hold, watch out sub basement.. If the FED's increase rates, it could be just enough to push it over..

Summary... AGG looks ready for positive movement, C, S & I STO's are neutral to neg, As of 0100 Eastern, DOW premarket is -250.. but lately that moves a lot in the mornings.. I think Fri or Yesterday was the day to get out for a bit.. I hate burning an IFT just to go F-Fund.. We'll see what the next day or two brings..




August 31
Volume spikes
by  United States fishbone | 5 Comments

There are huge volume spikes early in each trading day on the S&P... is there a way to find out if these are from many investors buying or selling or if it is from just a few large transactions? Also, is there a way to know if these were buy or sell transactions? Basically I want to know if large powerful investors are buying or selling the market and possibly which ones if that is public knowledge.




August 27
For the Longs (or Those Who Got Caught)
by  United States Heckler511 | 4 Comments

I'm almost certain I'll be getting out today. I was really hoping to get back to even on the year, however:

1) I think there will be a short setup this week - either today or more likely tomorrow afternoon

2) I think we chop through much of September and volatility stays high for a couple weeks (i.e. we don't get back to previous highs...yet)

3) I'm going out of town tonight and likely won't be able to make any moves tomorrow (plus I could use the rest - these last several days have been difficult if you're in the market still)

4) Any other thoughts... what am I missing? :?:




August 26
Rate Hike or More QE?
by  United States Reese99 | 14 Comments

A simple question, really. Does the Fed move forward with a rate hike in September as promised (and I posit that recent action is pricing in a rate hike), or do they chicken out and prop the markets up for a while longer with a new round of QE?




 
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TSP Share Prices for Sep 1, 2015
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $14.8120 +0.01% +1.34%
   F Fund $16.9322 +0.09% +0.78%
   C Fund $25.6151 -2.95% -5.71%
   S Fund $34.8964 -2.65% -3.86%
   I Fund $23.5732 -3.37% -2.66%
   L 2050 $14.4476 -2.55% -3.42%
   L 2040 $25.6299 -2.24% -2.84%
   L 2030 $24.2486 -1.95% -2.25%
   L 2020 $22.5847 -1.50% -1.37%
   L Income $17.4919 -0.59% +0.24%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)