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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
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10,820 members, 44 online
Newest member: Icefire
October 01
Move to G.
by  United States - Virginia TSPKip | 5 Comments

I am moving to G fund. The S fund using the 15 min charts demonstrates a Q3h Lower highs and Lower Lowers and today is no different, and on the Daily chart: the closes are remaining just within the lower Bollinger band: suggesting a continued decline. Maybe a 10% eventual drop?

Good Luck all.

October 01
Dr. Doom - Black Swan
by  United States - South Dakota MakeMe$$$$ | 0 Comments

A prophet or over-the-top pessimist?

October 01
Silver, Gold and the Dollar
by  United States Tomanyiron | 1 Comment

Silver and Gold have been down-trending since the first of July. And at no surprise the US dollar as been soaring the same time. Who could have predicted that? And that move has been totally unrelated to stocks. (There have been two swing lows and swing highs within that time frame). Prior to July the two metals seemed to run a similar parallel path with stocks. Anyone care to comment on this, provide some enlightenment? Is it some type of bad omen, if so I would think the reverse would be so?

October 01
Bad Job Report Friday?
by  United States crondanet5 | 3 Comments

Tuesday I was trading some stocks, waiting for them to hit my sell price. They did not. I had to revise my sell price to be back in cash overnight. (I sleep well in the cash position). The volumes were quite high, as if a group of investors wanted to get out of the position rather than stay in and make more money. Also recall that yesterday morning's pre-market numbers were positive only to see the market go down soon after the opening. It was the last trading day of the month and the quarter. You would have thought stocks would rise in price as fund managers shuffled stocks to make their quarterly holding reports look better. And Wednesday's pre-market figures aren't showing a rise as 401k/IRA money pours into mutual fund companies. What is going on? Your guess is as good as mine, but I'm wondering if there is a whispering on Wall Street that the Friday Job Report will be bad for the market and the big investment houses are taking precautions to protect their fund balance. Even a good job report could be seen as bad for the markets because of the fed's intent to end QE and possibly raise interest rates. This is complete conjecture on my part. We have to see what happens. But for all those TSP Fantasy Gamers who made a move into the markets the past few days it could be bad. We have to wait and see. I'm hoping this is not the way events unfold as I too am in the market. Good luck to all.

September 30
Another V-bottom or...
by  United States - Virginia TSP_MVP | 0 Comments

I'm thinking this is either going to be another rebound or a huge sell-off. Sure is looking similar to the August ramp up. The 100 MA has been the area of support for SPY's last few rebounds this year.

September 30
Is 9/29 F Fund Return Correct?
by  United States Tomanyiron | 1 Comment

AGG is only up +0.11%, but TSPCenter says F fund up +0.41% (closing price $16.5357) :?:
If it is true, that’s the largest one day bump for the F-ickle fund I have seen in a long time. And puts me back in the green for my 9/2 transfer. :mrgreen:

It must be another glitch because TSPGov says the closing price is $16.4889. :cry:

September 29
Did S&P 500 hit a market top (2011.36) on 18 SEP?
by  United States - Pennsylvania Sptms2086 | 20 Comments

It may turn out that the S&P 500 hit a market top (2011.36) on 18 SEP - we'll only know for sure if it did or not in hindsight. However, there is a very bearish divergence between the Russell 2000 small cap index and S&P 500 large cap index. Such a divergence may signal a declining stock market ahead. Any thoughts?

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TSP Share Prices for Sep 30, 2014
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $14.5365 +0.01% +1.75%
   F Fund $16.4855 -0.02% +4.73%
   C Fund $25.8829 -0.27% +8.41%
   S Fund $34.0690 -1.06% +1.18%
   I Fund $25.2928 -0.11% -1.06%
   L 2050 $14.6217 -0.34% +3.97%
   L 2040 $25.7986 -0.30% +3.88%
   L 2030 $24.3282 -0.25% +3.70%
   L 2020 $22.5333 -0.18% +3.38%
   L Income $17.2557 -0.07% +2.61%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)

Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)