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TSP Center - The Thrift Savings Plan Community
"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
--- Member Statistics ---
12,566 members, 35 online
Newest member: skobydog
February 12
Heard of the Dow Theory?
by  United States Tomanyiron | 4 Comments

"While most of us have heard of the Dow Theory, few have more than a nodding acquaintance with it. It is a method of forecasting the future trend of the stock market from the action of the market itself as revealed by the Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation averages."

Dow Theory is based on a series of Wall Street Journal articles written by Charles Dow. The basic tenets of Dow Theory are easy to understand. Charles Dow believed that:
7. In order for industrial companies to increase their earnings, they had to produce and sell more goods.
8. If industrial companies are selling more goods, then transportation companies must be delivering more goods to retailers and wholesalers.
9. Therefore, in a healthy economy, both industrial companies and transportation companies should be experiencing revenue growth.
10. If industrial and transportation companies are growing their revenues, then the industrial and transportation stocks should be attractive to investors.
11. If industrial and transportation companies are doing well and are attractive to investors, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average should be making new highs in unison, serving to confirm a healthy economy.
February 12
[ Poll ]
2/12/15 - Bounce or Sign of Bottom
by  United States - South Dakota MakeMe$$$$ | 7 Comments

2/11/15 was a bad day but rumors of OPEC considering a production slow down seem to have put some mid-day bounce in the market's step. Still...bounce or sign of bottom? 7 day pole attached with the option to change your mind. LOL

February 12
TSP Millionaire Possibility?
by  United States Venge | 5 Comments

I was looking up a few websites and come across this... ... 015-level/

Thought it was interesting.
"For those who may be wondering, the largest TSP balance is $4,654,426. The person with the highest TSP balance is also down in the past year. Back in February 2015, the highest TSP balance was $4,803,304.23. - See more at: ... yl3uA.dpuf"

How did they achieve soo much? No secret I guess. The report says "stories from readers who have reached the $1,000,000 mark in the TSP are similar. They have usually diversified their investments between the TSP stock funds, sacrificed spending in other areas to have money to contribute as much as they can into the TSP funds over a period of years, and kept investing in both up and down markets. - See more at: ... yl3uA.dpuf

Also, on the chart it appears you should be working 25+ years to get close to this number. That's disappointing =P

Most of you GURUs know this but for the new guys like myself, just some food for thought. Thought you would enjoy!!

February 11 Closed on Monday...
by  United States - Georgia snaffu | 1 Comment

Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, February 15th in observance of the Presidents' Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (February 15th) will be processed Tuesday night (February 16th), at Tuesday's closing share prices.

February 10
Lucia - Introduction
by  United States Lucia | 34 Comments

Fellow servicemembers/FERS civilians/all others,

Please allow me to introduce myself. I am a SSgt in the USAF with 8 years TIS. Last year, I reenlisted for 5 more years in the CENTCOM AOR.

I currently invest in the TSP that I started in 2009, a Roth IRA with Vanguard that I started in 2010, and an individual brokerage account, which I have used on and off since 2003. My allocation in Vanguard was 99% VGENX, a fund invested in 100% energy equities/1% cash in a MMA until 2014, when I reallocated to 100% VFIFX, the Retirement Fund for 2050. I have experienced limited success and many failures/lessons learned as an investor, and strive to improve my understanding through, among several avenues, this informative site and members like you.

My retirement investment strategy consists of several components.

1) $5500 allocated annually to Roth IRA contribution DCA on weekly basis 100% VFIFX. (passive)
2) $18000 allocated annually to Roth TSP. (hybrid passive-active, I will mostly follow the seasonal strategy or FantasyTSP annual leaders with small deviations and risks based off technical indicators and likelihood of positive or negative sentiment that will affect Mr. Market)
3) As much as possible into individual brokerage account. I sold nearly all my holdings last year as I was not sleeping well at night with the amount of risk I was taking. That was when I learned that the only thing worth investing more than a retirement is personal health; the value of a good night's sleep cannot be understated. From 2003-2015 I have held positions in T, XOM, ATVI, BPI, ARYC, KO, IAE, TZA, TNA, TVIX.
4) Real estate. I currently rent out a house in NE.

My Roth IRA is on autopilot until 2050 so the only goal I have for it is to maximize the contribution and not deviate from DCA/buy and hold.

My goal in TSP is to gain at least 1% per month and 12% per year. I failed last year.

My long term goal with the IBA is to invest in at least one solid growth stock that becomes the next AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL etc. I have had no success so far.

My rental property is taken care of by a property manager so the goal is to use the rental income to pay off the mortgage earlier.

I look forward to benefitting from your collective wisdom/guidance in our journey towards a well funded, fat and happy retirement. Good trading!

February 10
Potential S&P bounce off of support
by  United States Scarfinger | 15 Comments

This pattern looks similar to the Aug/Sept 2015 set up. This pattern was also similar to Nov 2008 **And it did not hold up. One main difference in 2008 was that the Momentum/Bollinger band squeeze broke out NEGATIVE (red).

This pattern depends on the Momentum/Bollinger band squeeze breaking POSITIVE (green). Also MACD going (+) with divergence increasing, Stoch RSI going into Oversold conditions.

***Only for discussion purposes. Just something I was looking at and my brain says it could be something to keep an eye on for an entry point. If an entry was made, extreme caution would be warranted.
February 09
How Low Can it Go?
by  United States Relevant | 2 Comments

While the question is impossible to answer definitively, we can get some clues by looking at a monthly chart of the S&P 500 (C-Fund).
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TSP Share Prices for Feb 12, 2016
    Close Day YTD
   G Fund $14.9530 +0.00% +0.25%
   F Fund $17.2698 -0.45% +1.86%
   C Fund $25.2199 +1.96% -8.50%
   S Fund $30.2349 +2.01% -14.19%
   I Fund $21.3697 +1.50% -11.31%
   L 2050 $13.7162 +1.53% -8.72%
   L 2040 $24.5497 +1.34% -7.61%
   L 2030 $23.4336 +1.15% -6.50%
   L 2020 $22.1198 +0.83% -4.69%
   L Income $17.4557 +0.34% -1.79%
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

S&P 500 (C Fund)

Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)