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"FantasyTSP™ and Discussion Forum for the Thrift Savings Plan Investor"
 
 
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11,852 members, 21 online
Newest member: cvillain22
July 27
Markets Topped
by  United States TSPsmart | 0 Comments

I am looking for a good discussion... The markets have topped.

A double peak is always possible after a good correction and the Fed hitting the QE button again, but by double peak I mean the market returns to no more than plus or minus 1% of the first peak then fades fast. We saw a double peak in 2000 and 2007, but it does not guarantee another one. We are seeing the results this summer of a QE driven bull market being taken off QE life support.

Here is what I see for peak dates.

20 July
TSP C fund at 28. 4005 (S&P 500 index with dividends included)

23 June
Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index (total US market)
TSP S fund at 39.3314 (mid & small caps)
Russell 2000 index (small caps)

21 May
S&P 500 index (price only as quoted everywhere)
NYSE Composite

19 May
DJIA

I have been in the Sell-on-Strength mode since the Spring.

Thoughts?




July 27
Pre-Market... 27 Jul
by  United States - Georgia snaffu | 0 Comments

Monday morning..
Shanghai down 8.5%, HSI down 3.09%..

Not looking good for the home team..

http://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/




July 27
What-to-do-Voo-Doo for week of 27 Jul
by  United States - Georgia snaffu | 13 Comments

Well, not only was last Fri. a down day, it was a BAM Down day for all the major indices.

All of the closes are back down to or near the lows of earlier this month after the Greece crash... In the world of trend analysis, this could be a retest of the lows.. If it fails, that indicates the brakes are off and look out below.. If prices bounce, then firm support has been reached and expect a positive run..

SPX: Last Wed, I called a target of 2080, we hit it Friday, a few days sooner than I expected.. Since SPX has reached the highs of the whip-saw of earlier this month, I expect a rest or bounce.. I was expecting this later this week, but SPX fell faster than expected. I have one very fast STO which has already reached 20 supporting a rest.. Other standard slow STO's are in the 30-40 range while Slow STO has barely turned over to 80.. Previously when this sto reached this point, at least a couple day bounce happened.. (See attachment)

Ok, so what does all this mean? Using current parameters, i.e. a sideways to slightly down market, A Fast STO reaching 30's, and Slow STO still high indicates that a small rest is near, say over the next 3-4 days, but the overall bottom is off in the future.. Not a good time to be in the core funds.

I know I talk mostly about SPX, but unless there are specific differences, why repeat it 3 times..

Tradesmart-U last night called for an overall continuation down before it gets better. Then again, these are the same guys I followed down a hole last year.. so I'm taking it under advisement, and doing my own analysis.

I have all my IFT's left for the month so I may do a quick in and out trade before the end of the month, so don't take my move in as a que to go all in.. Just looking for a few points on the leaderboard and it may blow up in my face.

Summary.. Safe Harbor is the order of the day..

- Pvt Snaffu




July 22
ARGH!
by  United States mrmaxd | 8 Comments

It looks like I'm gonna have to be a buy and hold guy for awhile. @#$%! %&*(! $%^&!
:shock:




July 21
G Fund, Anyone heard of this?
by  United States kaclemen | 11 Comments

This was an email forwarded from a co-worker.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
July 20, 2015

Dear Lamar,

This week, the Senate will vote on an extension of the Highway Trust Fund, and a group of senators, led by Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-UT, has proposed using the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Government Securities Fund (G Fund) to finance the extension.

CALL YOUR SENATORS TODAY and tell them that the TSP belongs to federal employees and retirees, not the federal government! Use NARFE’s toll-free line – 1-866-220-0044 – and tell your senators to vote “NO” on any Highway Trust Fund extension that raids the TSP. A vote on this is likely to take place this week.

Your voice must be heard if we are going to prevent an extension of the Highway Trust Fund being funded on the backs of federal employees and retirees. NARFE legislative staff is working to prevent this bad policy from moving forward and your senators also must hear from you. Call your senators at 1-866-220-0044 and tell them you oppose any proposal to reduce the rate of return on the TSP G Fund, as proposed in the Highway Trust Fund extension. The proposal would change the rate of return on the G Fund from 2.25% annually to 0.02%.

The TSP is the bedrock element of the retirement packages of the nation’s uniformed military personnel and federal civilian employees. Approximately 4.3 million people are invested in the G Fund. This is not a proposal to use funds currently in the G Fund to pay for the Highway Trust Fund extension. Rather, the proposal would reduce the rate of return on the TSP G Fund and use the proposed savings to pay for the Trust Fund reauthorization. However, the estimated $32 billion in savings resulting from this change would not be realized, as the low rate of return would cause participants to change their allocations and move money out of the G Fund.

CALL YOUR SENATORS TODAY and tell them that the TSP belongs to you and your fellow federal employees and retirees, as well as our nation’s military members! Use NARFE’s toll-free line – 1-866-220-0044 – and tell your senators to vote “NO” on any Highway Trust Fund extension that raids the TSP.

You also can send your senators a letter <http://cqrcengage.com/narfe/app/write-a-letter?4&engagementId=118573> using the Legislative Action Center, but considering that the vote could come this week, NARFE is encouraging you to call Capitol Hill using NARFE’s toll-free number – 1-866-220-0044 – to tell your senators to oppose using the TSP to pay for the Highway Trust Fund extension.

Thank you for taking this urgent action. If you have any questions, please contact the NARFE Legislative Department at 703-838-7760, ext. 201, or leg@narfe.org.

Thank you,

NARFE Legislative Department




July 20
For those interested in Seasonal Investing
by  United States TSPsmart | 0 Comments

I've developed TSP Almanacs based on Trading Day or the Month

I recently added a separate lower price for Almanac only access on my website for those not interested in the other services such as timing for a seasonally-modified buy & hold strategy.

I have the following almanacs currently available:

TSP C fund (based on S&P 500 index, over 60 years)
TSP S fund (based on the Dow Jones Total US Stock Market Completion Index, price only since 1988)
TSP F fund (based on TSP share price since 2004)
Plus a combined Almanac to see these funds side-by-side

These almanacs are based off the trading day of the month and anchored to the first and last day of the month as well as a middle day of the month.

Using my databases I also provide research on some seasonal trading strategies such as the Turn-of-Year (Santa rally) and others. I recently looked at the seasonal tendencies of the stocks with the highest buybacks.

I do recommend using all available tools for investing decisions (fundamental, technical, and seasonal). The goal should be to the best percentage investments much like in sports where you try to take the highest percentage shots based on what is given to you. I have found that precise seasonal data can help you narrow those shots down - no more guessing.

Initial Almanac access is only $95 the first year (equals 1% of 10K). Invest smart.

Use the discount code "TSPcenter" before the end of July and get 10% off any membership level.





July 20
Who-Do-Voo-Doo for week of Jul 20
by  United States - Georgia snaffu | 6 Comments

As I mentioned last week, looks like TSP is reaching a peak according to STO's.. I am waiting for STO's to return to 20-30 before buying.

F Fund: AGG has turned Bullish, showing $$ is flowing into Bonds.. and away from stocks.

C Fund: Approaching an ATH, FSTO is over 80, which indicates overbought and a retracement is in the near future.

S Fund: FSTO is approaching 80, (Same as C Fund)

I Fund: A line can be drawn from the highs of May, Jun and last Friday.. suggesting a resistance. FSTO is over 80, (Same as C Fund)

DOW has already started to roll on FSTO. indicating Bearish for the near future..

Summary: May be a good time to move assets to G or F for a little while to maintain profits.


C Fund - STO Only,.. S Fund - STO Only,... I Fund - STO Only

- Pvt Snaffu




 
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AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

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S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)

EFA (I Fund)
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