newbie here and confused - tsp allocations

[n.shift]

I really like the seasonal calculator. Just don't know how accurate its going to be in the future. It only has 100% investment in the "s" fund 1 time a year(December). I think with Trumps tax reform, deregulation, investments in infrastructure that we are going to see the "s" fund/smaller companies benefit the most. If this is correct, wouldn't it make more since to invest in the s fund more then 1 month out of the year in the coming future? Or is this just wishful thinking? Also, what can I expect inflation to do to the stock market? here is a very likely scenario in the not to distant future. I am almost certain this will happen but I don't know what to do about it. Trump is almost certainly going to put a 35% tariff tax on companies over seas to bring products in. The only option companies will have is to move back to the united states, which will be unlikely or increase cost of their product which is more likely to happen. With this, we can expect revenue for the federal government to increase but also see a big spike in inflation which would almost certainly be countered by rising interest rates to try and cool the economy down. If I am wrong on this PLEASE let me know because this wrong thinking will ruin my retirement. lol.. NOW, with that said, my confusion is what do I expect from the stock market? where would my money be better off at? I know that most people have no experience with this just because I don't think there has ever been a tariff tax in place. but most of you probably do have experience with inflation and rising interest rates which is the moral of this story. Any suggestions?

[evilanne]

Nobody can predict the future. There are different variations for seasonal strategies, Aitrus tracks about a dozen different versions. Life was much simpler when the TSP only had 3 funds Read as much as you can to be informed...ultimately it is up to you to decide how to invest your retirement fund.

[n.shift]

I'm learning. That's why I'm asking tons of questions. Probably most of them seem stupid to folks that have a pretty good grasp on tsp investing. I understand world affairs but I don't understand how its usually effects things in the stock market. Like inflation and what to expect, rising interest rates and what to expect, regulation vs deregulation, tariff tax and so on. So once I better understand how the stock market historically reacts to these types of things, I'll be staying in the "buy and hold" strategy. I would rather learn to trade to minimize my losses. But only the most skilled trader can benefit the most from trading. That's my number 1 goal is to learn to trade with the best of them. i'll get it figured out sooner or later and maybe i'll be at the top of the list in the fantasy tsp...wooohooo. and maybe not!

[Scarfinger]

There are different types of investors. This is simplified and may not be 100% correct, but...

Buying stock based on:
1. fundamental analysis
2. Technical analysis

Rising interest rates are bad for the "F" fund. But? Inflation may be good for it? That is my current interpretation. I am not sure about inflation.

[evilanne]

Fed meets next week. Interest rates have been low for so long that the market has been having tantrums ever since they announced that they would be ending quantitative easing. There are many economic indicators: http://www.tspallocation.com/tspresources/#indicators I like http://mam.econoday.com as it tells you what is happening every day and gives explanation of why it is important.

[n.shift]

The 1st day felt good. at 50% c and 50% s I made over 100 bux. that's more then I made ytd in g fund. just moved to 100% s and will stay there for remainder of December. I just learned that's where I should have been this entire month. still learning!! thank you all for all your help!

[skiehawk11]

There are different types of investors. This is simplified and may not be 100% correct, but...

Buying stock based on:
1. fundamental analysis
2. Technical analysis

Rising interest rates are bad for the "F" fund. But? Inflation may be good for it? That is my current interpretation. I am not sure about inflation.

There's also factor analysis.

[Scarfinger]

There are different types of investors. This is simplified and may not be 100% correct, but...

Buying stock based on:
1. fundamental analysis
2. Technical analysis

Rising interest rates are bad for the "F" fund. But? Inflation may be good for it? That is my current interpretation. I am not sure about inflation.

There's also factor analysis.

Would factor analysis be similar to "Fibonacci"?

[skiehawk11]

No, factor analysis would be similar to the Fama-French factors or something similar. It's basically a statistical method. You take several different data sets and match that to the returns you're interested in. Fama-french uses value, growth and size factors. You could veer off and make your own factors such as GDP growth, inflation, earnings yield, and so on. You're just taking a mixture of different datasets over a certain time horizon to see which dataset statistically (not fundamentally) explains the security returns the most.

[kavic]

Hi All,
I'm a noob here, but not to the TSP. I've been in TSP about 29 years. I will tell you just like I tell all my co-workers. Get to the max contribution as fast as you can. You get a raise or a bonus, bump the TSP. The earlier you get your money in, the more likely you will have an account in the millions by retirement.

Keep it in the C & S funds 90% of the next 10-15 years. I wish I had paid more attention years ago just to look at trends. If there is a significant down trend move to G. Would have been nice to avoid two big six figure drops.

I get a little scared of drops like that now I'll be retiring in the next couple of years, but 40% C and 60% S until I see a trend reversal.

[n.shift]

The s fund is going to take a beating. Started Friday and little worse so far today. Be careful

[kavic]

Can't say I wasn't tempted to move to G on Friday just to skip this week of volatility.

[n.shift]

Me to. Gonna be a roller coaster ride for the c and s. If I had any allocations left I'd parked in the I find for month or so.

[n.shift]

It's rough when Dow can be positive for the day and s fund still be in the negative

[Aitrus]

n.shift,

I responded to your question on another thread. Hopefully that will clear some things up for you. Don't be afraid to ask questions if it's still not making sense. We want you to know what's going on with your money.