KennyGT: Another Try

[KennyGT]

I have had a go at the investing game over the past seven years with no success. In 2007 I was lucky to have transferred my TSP money into the G Fund in August and missed the crash of the TSP funds in 2008. I thought I would be smart and try to profit from the once in a lifetime bargains on the stock market. I took a TSP loan to start trading on a "Think or Swim" trading account and got stupid losing $22,000 over 5 months. I didn't know about the psychology and "nerves of steel" needed for trading. I learned a lot but burned myself.

Since that time my TSP built up very slowly due to my apprehension after big losses. I kept seeing another "crash" coming and would repeatedly take cover in the G Fund.

Recently I read Tony Robbins' book titled MONEY and came across a passage on page 492 where he interviews a guy named Paul Tudor Jones. This guy has had 28 straight full years of wins and he says his metric for knowing when to exit is the 200 day moving average. Using this strategy is how he was cashed out prior to the crash in 1987 and profited 60% the day after the crash.

I remembered that at some point during my time "Trading" I created a spreadsheet using the daily share prices for all of the original five TSP funds (Non-L) to chart the funds with a moving average trend-line. So tonight I found that spreadsheet and updated it with all of the daily share prices from 2007 to today. I plugged in the 200 day moving average and "lo and behold" it would have been a total winning strategy as far back as I have pulled data for.

So here I am to try again. My plan is to try the 200 day Moving Average strategy while using the "All Seasons" allocations strategy from the Ray Dalio interview in the same book.

[evilanne]

Greetings KennyGT, Welcome to the Forum.

Trying to effectively time the market within the TSP rules can be tricky. Suggest you also take a look at Aitrus' thread on the different seasonal strategies which is a lot less work with pretty decent returns. viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13214 You can track the moving averages as well. Good luck!

[crondanet5]

Kenny how did you derive your pending allocation?

[n.shift]

I have had a go at the investing game over the past seven years with no success. In 2007 I was lucky to have transferred my TSP money into the G Fund in August and missed the crash of the TSP funds in 2008. I thought I would be smart and try to profit from the once in a lifetime bargains on the stock market. I took a TSP loan to start trading on a "Think or Swim" trading account and got stupid losing $22,000 over 5 months. I didn't know about the psychology and "nerves of steel" needed for trading. I learned a lot but burned myself.

Since that time my TSP built up very slowly due to my apprehension after big losses. I kept seeing another "crash" coming and would repeatedly take cover in the G Fund.

Recently I read Tony Robbins' book titled MONEY and came across a passage on page 492 where he interviews a guy named Paul Tudor Jones. This guy has had 28 straight full years of wins and he says his metric for knowing when to exit is the 200 day moving average. Using this strategy is how he was cashed out prior to the crash in 1987 and profited 60% the day after the crash.

I remembered that at some point during my time "Trading" I created a spreadsheet using the daily share prices for all of the original five TSP funds (Non-L) to chart the funds with a moving average trend-line. So tonight I found that spreadsheet and updated it with all of the daily share prices from 2007 to today. I plugged in the 200 day moving average and "lo and behold" it would have been a total winning strategy as far back as I have pulled data for.

So here I am to try again. My plan is to try the 200 day Moving Average strategy while using the "All Seasons" allocations strategy from the Ray Dalio interview in the same book.

Pick a seasonal mix or play "follow the leader". Either way you should do just fine. I personally like the "buy and hold" strategy but I have 20 years to go with time to make up lost ground.

[mrmaxd]

Pick a seasonal mix or play "follow the leader". Either way you should do just fine. I personally like the "buy and hold" strategy but I have 20 years to go with time to make up lost ground.[/quote]

nshift, I was kinda joking when I suggested follow the leader as a strategy the other day. However, If one is to employ this as a strategy. It has been suggested by those far wiser than me to develop a watch list using at least 360 day history and prior years returns.

Most of my comments on here are for humor or sarcasm as I have very little idea what I'm doing.

[Scarfinger]

Pick a seasonal mix or play "follow the leader". Either way you should do just fine. I personally like the "buy and hold" strategy but I have 20 years to go with time to make up lost ground.

nshift, I was kinda joking when I suggested follow the leader as a strategy the other day. However, If one is to employ this as a strategy. It has been suggested by those far wiser than me to develop a watch list using at least 360 day history and prior years returns.

Most of my comments on here are for humor or sarcasm as I have very little idea what I'm doing.

By following a leader... You may actually be following a seasonal strategy.

[evilanne]

By following a leader... You may actually be following a seasonal strategy.

It could be a buy & hold strategy or it could be someone that just signed on sometime in January. Recommend that if you look at the leader board for guidance that you click on each person's name and look at their history. Some members have history going back to 2008/9

[KennyGT]

I've attached the chart showing the TSP Funds share prices and 200 Day Moving Averages back to February 2007. This is the strategy I wrote about in my intro.

[n.shift]

By following a leader... You may actually be following a seasonal strategy.

It could be a buy & hold strategy or it could be someone that just signed on sometime in January. Recommend that if you look at the leader board for guidance that you click on each person's name and look at their history. Some members have history going back to 2008/9

Just about everyone in my watch list has a long history with great gains year after year. I receive text messages and emails when they make a change. I do however only use this as a guide to make my decision. But with 20 years to go, I'm not to worried about the buy and hold strategy. The Dow will be approaching 30k or more in 20 years unless this country goes into a depression. So long term strategy like buy and hold prolly ain't a bad idea.

[ArrieS]

Go to a site like portfolio visualizer and see the actual trading out comes. Of going in and out like that. Since 1986 that stragegy lagged the S&P 500 buy and hold. It wasn't until the great recession that it past it and now recently has lagged behind it again.

What was his winning rate? You can win year over year but if the compounded return is 4% than they lagged the overall market return. The devil is in the details for claims about winning in the stock market.