Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

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12squared
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by 12squared »

fordest wrote:
mmmmmbeer wrote:Shoot... that #15565 is something to behold. Such steady returns and nada under 20% for 14 years.


Contender for 2018?

or reevaluate on December 28, based on nearly 14 full years of returns?
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fordest
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by fordest »

mmmmmbeer wrote:
fordest wrote:
mmmmmbeer wrote:Shoot... that #15565 is something to behold. Such steady returns and nada under 20% for 14 years.


Contender for 2018?



Yeah.. for sure. That redic low Std Dev while still snagging 33% ave... and only 55% market exposure?! Whaaaaaat?


When you start reevaluating also take a look at 15793 Nothing under 22.5% but getting down around 31%.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

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pokiemon
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by pokiemon »

mmmmmbeer wrote:
mjedlin66 wrote:I follow whichever strategy mmmmmbeer tells me to follow. That guy is convincing. He must have been a used car salesman in the past.



Haha... I found it much easier to talk the bad guy into the cuffs than fight them all! ;)


So are you guys following 7980? I noticed mjedlin66 is still in the F fund. :?

mmmmmbeer
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by mmmmmbeer »

pokiemon wrote:
mmmmmbeer wrote:
mjedlin66 wrote:I follow whichever strategy mmmmmbeer tells me to follow. That guy is convincing. He must have been a used car salesman in the past.



Haha... I found it much easier to talk the bad guy into the cuffs than fight them all! ;)


So are you guys following 7980? I noticed mjedlin66 is still in the F fund. :?



Yes, I'm still with the 7980. IFT was put in for Monday.
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mjedlin66
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by mjedlin66 »

Did I miss an IFT?

This is why I need to finish e-mail alerts.
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Travis1984
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by Travis1984 »

Still on 7980 until the end of the year. Then re-evaluating for January. 15670 is the leader in the clubhouse.
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."

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klee
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by klee »

mjedlin66 wrote:Did I miss an IFT?

This is why I need to finish e-mail alerts.


If you and Mmmmmmbeer are following 7980, maybe he could give you a shout whenever he puts in an IFT until you finish with e-mail alerts.

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maui21ice
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by maui21ice »

Been keeping an eye on "15565" lately and I think I'm going to go with this one for a while. Love the low Std Dev and not having anything below 20% since '04 has me feeling very optimistic.

klee
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by klee »

I noticed the 2nd week of November, most of the strategies have listed G fund for that week supposedly because of the presidential election. Wouldn't CSI funds do better on that week when there's no election going on?

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evilanne
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by evilanne »

klee,

I don't think it is because of the election but take a look at this one: http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1597 ... rtdir=desc I changed a few things in November to remove F completely and also changed December from G to F. A lot of strategies using F have been changed to G because of people's the fear of what will happen with the Fed. Surprisingly, this actually increases rather than decreases the Std Dev in some cases.

Fordest & 12squared have posted quite a few with Mean/Standard Deviation > 6 on the Risk thread (viewtopic.php?f=14&p=63444#p63444), here is another without F in November http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=15942&years=04-16

You can always play with it and make up your own

klee
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by klee »

I think I like 15975. Standard Dev - 7.95 is that good?

mmmmmbeer
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by mmmmmbeer »

klee wrote:I think I like 15975. Standard Dev - 7.95 is that good?


Yeah that's really good. The lower the standard deviation the more stable the returns. Doesn't go up or down much per year, but rather a stays a steady mean +/- 7.95%.
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evilanne
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by evilanne »

7.95 is actually for 15565 that Maui21ice mentioned. Both 15565 & 15975 are less volatile than 7890 so it depends on your goals and your risk tolerance. If you divide the mean by the standard deviation you can see which interval it is likely to fall where it falls on in Standard Distribution graph viewtopic.php?f=14&p=63444#p63444 and determine the level of confidence you want.

MIX# Mean SD17 Mean SD16 Mean/StdD. . .CSI
15975 31.35 7.72 32.08 7.53 4.06 & 4.26 . 58
15565 32.48 7.95 33.30 7.66 4.09 & 4.22 . 55.6
7890 35.98 16.32 36.96 16.54 2.2 & 2.23 . 58

It makes more sense to just use full year data for comparison here is link showing difference between the 3 mentioned - http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=1597 ... sortby=avg You can look up each of the mixes individually and compare the detail.

klee
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by klee »

Ok, I guess 15975, I was looking at the wrong column. Why is 15565 next to Total column? That's where I got the 7.95.

mmmmmbeer
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Re: Which TSPCalc # Strategy are you following?

Post by mmmmmbeer »

klee wrote:Ok, I guess 15975, I was looking at the wrong column. Why is 15565 next to Total column? That's where I got the 7.95.


Sounds like you have the 15565 in the "Comparison" box. So it's results will be next to the strategy # you got pulled up for your Main.
Last edited by mmmmmbeer on Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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