New from MD.

General TSP Discussion.

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James1018
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:17 pm

New from MD.

Post by James1018 »

Whats up guys? New here from MD. Been a civilian employee for 9yrs. Been putting roughly 15% from the day I've been in. Looking for other advice other than co-worker here-say. Started out in the G then moved to lifecycle fund and now have my investments spread through out the C,S, and G fund. 45,45,10. Does everyone move their money depending on the TSP Calc. numbers i.e. 7980? Reading the market and graphs seems pretty daunting right now.

I've done some stock research and such before(Preston Physc, P.E. ratios and such) but it doesn't seem to translate to well over to the TSP for me. Any suggestions where to start with acquiring knowledge on the TSP. When to sell, when to buy, what not to do's, what to do's.

Also is it a no-no to post your TSP %'s and balances for advice on here?

Thanks in advance
James

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: New from MD.

Post by mmmmmbeer »

evilanne wrote:For those looking for more info on the daily seasonal: Here are 2 thread that show much of the history:

Initial Tread: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13833

Daily Seasonal Launch: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13984

Aitrus' Seasonal Musings (monthly strategies): viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13214


Here you go man. I'd start with the 2017 Seasonal Mix thread. Our primer really.

I got a 14% return in 12 months doing this. Should have been 17% but silly me, I went off plan for a month. My bad.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: New from MD.

Post by mmmmmbeer »

James1018 wrote:Any suggestions where to start with acquiring knowledge on the TSP. When to sell, when to buy, what not to do's, what to do's.

Also is it a no-no to post your TSP %'s and balances for advice on here?

Thanks in advance
James


Nope the more info other than PII of course, the better for us to help with advice.

Also this thread might be sorta fun for you:

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=12621&hilit=+Compare

We all sorta share where we are.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

James1018
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:17 pm

Re: New from MD.

Post by James1018 »

mmmmmbeer wrote:
James1018 wrote:Any suggestions where to start with acquiring knowledge on the TSP. When to sell, when to buy, what not to do's, what to do's.

Also is it a no-no to post your TSP %'s and balances for advice on here?

Thanks in advance
James


Nope the more info other than PII of course, the better for us to help with advice.

Also this thread might be sorta fun for you:

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=12621&hilit=+Compare

We all sorta share where we are.


Ok. Thanks for the info. I was seeing that people were following the thread for the seasonal and they said that most only use the seasonal info for their fantasy which spooked me a little. Was curious if people were using it for their REAL money. Interesting nevertheless. Thanks for the info!

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evilanne
Posts: 2067
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: New from MD.

Post by evilanne »

Welcome to the Forum James. Some use the fantasy account to practice prior to trying it while others mirror their actual TSP account...it is up to you how much information you feel comfortable in sharing in an online forum. I saw your other post and you seem to be on the right path to meet your goal...given the amount of time you have until retirement, you may want to increase that goal :wink:

greengrass
Posts: 334
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 9:28 am

Re: New from MD.

Post by greengrass »

I've been using the seasonal for reference but most of my moves are pretty close. I've been averaging 17+% over the last 5 years or so. One year lower but most over. Lower when I followed my gut. Previous years I was over 20% but I was WAY too involved and my family life suffered. I don't risk that anymore. There is some great advice on the site. It's your choice to follow but I can say it's helping me. Happy investing.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: New from MD.

Post by mmmmmbeer »

James1018 wrote:
mmmmmbeer wrote:
James1018 wrote:Any suggestions where to start with acquiring knowledge on the TSP. When to sell, when to buy, what not to do's, what to do's.

Also is it a no-no to post your TSP %'s and balances for advice on here?

Thanks in advance
James


Nope the more info other than PII of course, the better for us to help with advice.

Also this thread might be sorta fun for you:

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=12621&hilit=+Compare

We all sorta share where we are.


Ok. Thanks for the info. I was seeing that people were following the thread for the seasonal and they said that most only use the seasonal info for their fantasy which spooked me a little. Was curious if people were using it for their REAL money. Interesting nevertheless. Thanks for the info!


Yessir... quite a few of us do. I started last year and since then I probably have about 15 folks in my agency following either a monthly or daily seasonal thread.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

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Aitrus
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: New from MD.

Post by Aitrus »

Welcome, James. The biggest difference to keep in mind is that my thread and method uses at most one move per month, with some months having no moves at all. The TSPcalc's daily seasonal method uses more moves than that per month.

The method behind the madness is the same for both methods - use historical averages and return probabilities to determine if it's a good idea to be in or out of the market. Mine are monthly, with the decision to move done on the last business day of the month. TSPcalc's are daily, with a move limit based on the TSP's rules.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

homeslice
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:05 pm

Re: New from MD.

Post by homeslice »

Welcome.

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Scarfinger
Posts: 810
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: New from MD.

Post by Scarfinger »

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Jul (0.43%), 3.35% YTD
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in Jul (2.05%), 7.39% YTD (This is the one I follow with my personal TSP account)
gclapper’s M3 Mix: I Fund in Jul (2.88%), 9.97% YTD
tmj100’s Mix: C Fund in Jul (2.05%), 10.48% YTD
Boltman's Mix: I Fund in Jul (2.88%), 4.06% YTD
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in Jul (0.19%), 7.78% YTD
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Jul (0.19%), 1.36% YTD


I would read "Aitrus' Seasonal Musings (monthly strategies)" and start using a Monthly Seasonal as soon as possible. Timboslice has the most followers (1200) and the tmj100 Mix was formulated using his moves. The monthly strategies are easy to follow with minimal moves and in my opinion..the least stressful.

The daily seasonal is newer but also based on historical data like the monthly. I just started using the daily seasonal as of today. Since they are new to me... They stress me slightly.

Someone correct me if I am wrong...

The original monthly seasonals kept you in stocks 40% of the time and out 60% of the time.
The newer monthly seasonals have you in stocks 60% of the time and out 40% of the time.
The daily seasonals are pretty much 60% in and 40% out also.

If you want less moves than any of the seasonals. I like the free info from http://www.tspallocation.com/ which is based on cycles in the stock market.

So with all that said...who the hell am I to tell you what to do. I basically was like you when i joined. So I read all I could from the site. I bought an 800$ stock course to try to understand what I was reading about. And I really didn't do all that well making decisions based on what I thought I knew.

I started paying more attention to the Montly Seasonals last year and had a pretty decent year. But, I would have done even better if I stuck to the plan. I ended up with 17% for the year and Timboslice had something around 26% last year.

This year I followed Clappers Mix, except for one month I tried to be smart and varied from the plan and lost a couple percent. I still like to look at chart patterns and compare data in relation to what the seasonals recommend.

Remember! No one can predict the market and we are all trying to make educated guesses to maximize our retirement funds.

So... You came to the right place :) Welcome aboard
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

hellsbells
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:36 pm

Re: New from MD.

Post by hellsbells »

James1018 wrote:Whats up guys? New here from MD. Been a civilian employee for 9yrs. Been putting roughly 15% from the day I've been in. Looking for other advice other than co-worker here-say. Started out in the G then moved to lifecycle fund and now have my investments spread through out the C,S, and G fund. 45,45,10. Does everyone move their money depending on the TSP Calc. numbers i.e. 7980? Reading the market and graphs seems pretty daunting right now.

I've done some stock research and such before(Preston Physc, P.E. ratios and such) but it doesn't seem to translate to well over to the TSP for me. Any suggestions where to start with acquiring knowledge on the TSP. When to sell, when to buy, what not to do's, what to do's.

Also is it a no-no to post your TSP %'s and balances for advice on here?

Thanks in advance
James


Welcome dude.

James1018
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:17 pm

Re: New from MD.

Post by James1018 »

Thanks everyone. It's good to hear from all of you and seems if I have found the right place for info. Also, good to hear from Aitrus. From the short time I've been here(yesterday :)) I've been pointed towards your strategy. Beer you've been super helpful in my first couple of days so kudos my friend. Thanks for your advice as well scarfinger. I'm going to be starting a daily seasonal since I usually have time at work to play around with. I'll keep you guys posted on earnings. Just did a transaction in EBIS to max out to 18k for the year. Once, again thanks for the help! hope to be around for a while and hopefully, give advice one of these days.

James

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Aitrus
Moderator
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: New from MD.

Post by Aitrus »

Anytime, bud. Don't be shy with your questions. You'll get your answers. As you can see, we're a pretty friendly bunch around here.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".