Follow the Leader

General TSP Discussion.

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darmic3
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Joined: Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:37 pm

Follow the Leader

Post by darmic3 »

Hi All! New to this site and loving it. Just wondering what are your thoughts on following the leader.

Has anyone had any experience on following the TSP Fantasy leader with your true TSP account and adjusting allocations as new leaders emerge? Has it been a successful tactic for you?
Currently Following Strategy #57171: http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=57171

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MakeMe$$$$
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Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:12 pm

Re: Follow the Leader

Post by MakeMe$$$$ »

Welcome!

I've NOT followed any leader with either my fantasy or real TSP. While it is tempting, there are some pitfalls to it.

Part of the problem is that you don't really know what they are relying on when making their decisions and that can be very frustrating. Are they using fundamentals, technicals or their own home brew. Most leaders don't spend a lot of time talking about what they do. I think that part of the reason is that they sometimes got hounded and felt they didn't want to be responsible for the decisions of others.

Also, you might not understand how they time things and if you miss a trade by a day or two you could be totally out of sync. Some of these leaders don't signal a trade until late in the morning.

So, following the leader with your fantasy account might be a useful exercise but it might not work well for finding a strategy you feel comfortable with when it involves your real money.
Don
Rolled over to Fidelity 2/24/18.
Fantasy still playing with Daily Strategy 12767.

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darmic3
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Re: Follow the Leader

Post by darmic3 »

Great points MakeMe$$$$, but it's very hard to resist when you see past leaders make 48.47% in 2009 and 43.39% in 2011. It makes my 10% look like pennies compared to those gains. :)
Currently Following Strategy #57171: http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=57171

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Follow the Leader

Post by fordest »

If you found one leader to follow, you might do ok. If that particular user did well too. The problem comes in when you try to move on to what you called "emerging leaders". When a new leader emerges it's probably because he/she is in a different fund than the previous leader and that fund just had a great day. Now you have a new leader and if you switch to start following that leader you have missed that great day they had and you are now following a lagging indicator.

I tried my own version of follow the leader where I took the top 20 360 day leaders, ranked them, and then folllowed what the majority were doing. It was an ever changing list and filled with lagging indicators. Take a look at my 2015 results. Horrible idea. At least it didn't work for me. If you do it, pick one who you think is really on it. And stick with them. That's my advice.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

mmmmmbeer
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Re: Follow the Leader

Post by mmmmmbeer »

How many of the fatnasty leaders are consistent from year to year?
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

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fordest
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Re: Follow the Leader

Post by fordest »

Not very many. I think luck has a lot to do with it. The good ones are consistently high but not necessarily the leaders
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

Racerx919
Posts: 90
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2014 11:18 am

Re: Follow the Leader

Post by Racerx919 »

To answer darmic3's other question "Has anyone had any experience on following the TSP Fantasy leader with your true TSP account" the answer for me is yes. I have followed people while they were the leaders until they no longer were. That didn't really give me an education in what works. If you look at present most leaders are still in the "I" fund yet have very little time in Fantasy TSP. Luck or skill, only time will tell. My real money in TSP is maneuvered to reflect what I do here. Easier to keep track for me anyways.

lmunson
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Joined: Sat Apr 04, 2009 3:43 am

Re: Follow the Leader

Post by lmunson »

Racerx919 wrote:To answer darmic3's other question "Has anyone had any experience on following the TSP Fantasy leader with your true TSP account" the answer for me is yes. I have followed people while they were the leaders until they no longer were. That didn't really give me an education in what works. If you look at present most leaders are still in the "I" fund yet have very little time in Fantasy TSP. Luck or skill, only time will tell. My real money in TSP is maneuvered to reflect what I do here. Easier to keep track for me anyways.

Racer, if you don't mind saying, how long have you been following #7980? I noticed you made an amazing comeback from your losses in late 2015, in a relatively short amount of time. I'm wondering if that comeback was a result of following #7980.

Racerx919
Posts: 90
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2014 11:18 am

Re: Follow the Leader

Post by Racerx919 »

lmunson wrote:
Racerx919 wrote:To answer darmic3's other question "Has anyone had any experience on following the TSP Fantasy leader with your true TSP account" the answer for me is yes. I have followed people while they were the leaders until they no longer were. That didn't really give me an education in what works. If you look at present most leaders are still in the "I" fund yet have very little time in Fantasy TSP. Luck or skill, only time will tell. My real money in TSP is maneuvered to reflect what I do here. Easier to keep track for me anyways.

Racer, if you don't mind saying, how long have you been following #7980? I noticed you made an amazing comeback from your losses in late 2015, in a relatively short amount of time. I'm wondering if that comeback was a result of following #7980.


That's a really good question and an even better observation. Those were actual losses I incurred and it was due to inactivity (I was passive at the time). I haven't been following #7980 very long maybe two moves so far. I don't have a secret I watch CNBC as recommended by someone here, and I was following a seasonal strategy before that. (TMJ100)
Last edited by Racerx919 on Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.

mmmmmbeer
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Re: Follow the Leader

Post by mmmmmbeer »

I predict the 2018 leaderboard will be dominated by daily mix followers of some sort. You heard it here 1st!
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

Thirty3
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Re: Follow the Leader

Post by Thirty3 »

when following these strats, do i IFT 100% of my balance to the specified fund?

mmmmmbeer
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Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Follow the Leader

Post by mmmmmbeer »

Thirty3 wrote:when following these strats, do i IFT 100% of my balance to the specified fund?


To follow it in it's true spirit, but some folks will do like half.. or whatever. I think most of us are 100%.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

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evilanne
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Re: Follow the Leader

Post by evilanne »

Currently hytid is in the lead & currently in the S Fund--don't think any of the leading daily strategies are in the S Fund right now. I think they were considering switching to a daily strategy :?

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pokiemon
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Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2016 1:33 am

Re: Follow the Leader

Post by pokiemon »

mmmmmbeer wrote:I predict the 2018 leaderboard will be dominated by daily mix followers of some sort. You heard it here 1st!


Your prediction could very well be right. So instead of half, I may go 100% starting next year. Got Maalox?

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pokiemon
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Re: Follow the Leader

Post by pokiemon »

evilanne wrote:Currently hytid is in the lead & currently in the S Fund--don't think any of the leading daily strategies are in the S Fund right now. I think they were considering switching to a daily strategy :?

Anything can happen. :)

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".