New and I need help with allocation/timing

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nweis
Posts: 21
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:51 am

New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by nweis »

Hello everyone! Here's a little about myself: I am 28 years old, I have been working for the VA for 3 years now, I have about $13,000 in the L2050 fund. I am going to increase my TSP contribution amount significantly and I want to be more aggressive with my investments since I have so many years until retirement. I want to switch to 60% C, 20% S, and 20% I. But my question is: Should I do the interfund transfer to C,S, and I funds now or should I wait until there is a market correction? My thought process is that I will stick it out in the L2050 fund until the market drops and then buy into the C, S, and I funds while their stock prices are lower.

Hope to hear from you all soon! I am a newbie at this and I will take any advice you guys may have.

Thanks!

Jones44
Posts: 33
Joined: Tue May 02, 2017 9:41 pm

Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by Jones44 »

If your just going to buy/hold, I don't think it really matters. Set it and forget until MRA. But if you want to be more hands on, check out the daily strategies on this site and tspcalc.com.

dstancil
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Feb 16, 2015 2:20 pm

Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by dstancil »

Welcome to the forum. Here is a breakdown of the L2050 for January 2018

G: 11.5%
F: 6%
C: 43.45%
S: 14.3
I: 24.75

As it sits now then you are currently allocated 82.5% stocks. If the market were to correct then you would feel that correction if you stayed in the L2050. So buying CSI now or later doesn't provide much benefit that I can see. L2050 in other words is not a safe haven for a market correction.

I second looking at TSPcalc as mentioned above. Currently following #17842. Daily seasonal is a strategy based on 14 years past performance and is not an indicator of future performance. But 17842 is at 28.75% for the year with 24IFT's and is only in stocks 55.2%. There is a good video on tspcalc.com that explains how to use the data at the top of the page. Great resource. Hope this opens the door to the rabbit hole.

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by fordest »

And read the first few pages of this tread about seasonal investing.

If you would like to be safe during times that are more statistically likely to be "correction" times, seasonal investing is something you should be familiar with.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

nweis
Posts: 21
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:51 am

Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by nweis »

Wow! Thank you so much for the responses! I will take a look into the daily strategies. Thanks for the feedback!

OkieTSPer
Posts: 119
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 2:44 pm

Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by OkieTSPer »

Welcome and congratulations on your TSP. I highly recommend reading Aitrus's Seasonal Musings 2017 http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.p ... 759#p53759 as well as information on the daily seasonal mixes. Best of luck.

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Aitrus
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by Aitrus »

Welcome, nweis.

The guys are right, read my thread first before diving into the daily strategies. My thread explains things in a monthly pattern instead of a daily one, but the methodology and mindset is the same.

Side note: they pointed you to the one for 2017. I do a new thread every year on this topic, so I'm working on the 2018 thread as we speak.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

hmarkway
Posts: 61
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:14 am

Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by hmarkway »

My boyfriend has been sitting out of the market waiting for a correction... for over a year. How much has he lost out on? I don't even want to think about it. It's very hard to time the market. My advice is to jump in and just for for it. You have time to weather a correction before retirement. You can't win the game if you are sitting on the bench.
Current Allocation: 50/50 split F/G Funds, as of 1/3/2018
Strategy: Loosely following Daily Seasonal #16198 until I figure out my 2018 plan when all the main plans start diverging.

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by mmmmmbeer »

hmarkway wrote:My boyfriend has been sitting out of the market waiting for a correction... for over a year. How much has he lost out on? I don't even want to think about it. It's very hard to time the market. My advice is to jump in and just for for it. You have time to weather a correction before retirement. You can't win the game if you are sitting on the bench.
Gotta play to win! :)
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

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12squared
Posts: 675
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by 12squared »

mmmmmbeer wrote:
hmarkway wrote:My boyfriend has been sitting out of the market waiting for a correction... for over a year. How much has he lost out on? I don't even want to think about it. It's very hard to time the market. My advice is to jump in and just for for it. You have time to weather a correction before retirement. You can't win the game if you are sitting on the bench.
Gotta play to win! :)
"You can't win if you don't enter."
- Ed McMahon

"Timing is everything"
- William Shakespeare

"You have to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run."
- Kenny Rogers
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

nweis
Posts: 21
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:51 am

Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by nweis »

I plan on following strategy 16517. The first IFT is supposed to be done today (01/02/18) before Noon EST. When I go to the TSP website, do I do a Contribution Allocation of 100% to F fund AND an Interfund Transfer of 100% to the F fund?

I guess my confusion is do I do both the Contribution Allocation and the Interfund Transfer at the same time or just the interfund transfer? Sorry if it is a dumb question.

Thanks,
Nancy

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by fordest »

The most important part is the Interfund Transfer. The Contribution Allocation is less important if you will be following the strategy strictly since you will be moving your money around often enough that it won't sit in one fund for very long.

Some people like to do them both while they are there so that they are truly 100% in their fund of choice. I personally don't worry about my Contribution Allocation. I put everything in the G fund then move it all on my next IFT date.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

nweis
Posts: 21
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:51 am

Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by nweis »

Got it! That makes sense. Thank you!

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Scarfinger
Posts: 810
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing

Post by Scarfinger »

hmarkway wrote:My boyfriend has been sitting out of the market waiting for a correction... for over a year. How much has he lost out on? I don't even want to think about it. It's very hard to time the market. My advice is to jump in and just for for it. You have time to weather a correction before retirement. You can't win the game if you are sitting on the bench.
He missed out on 20+% returns. You should convince him to at least follow a Monthly strategy.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".