New and I need help with allocation/timing
Moderator: Aitrus
New and I need help with allocation/timing
Hello everyone! Here's a little about myself: I am 28 years old, I have been working for the VA for 3 years now, I have about $13,000 in the L2050 fund. I am going to increase my TSP contribution amount significantly and I want to be more aggressive with my investments since I have so many years until retirement. I want to switch to 60% C, 20% S, and 20% I. But my question is: Should I do the interfund transfer to C,S, and I funds now or should I wait until there is a market correction? My thought process is that I will stick it out in the L2050 fund until the market drops and then buy into the C, S, and I funds while their stock prices are lower.
Hope to hear from you all soon! I am a newbie at this and I will take any advice you guys may have.
Thanks!
Hope to hear from you all soon! I am a newbie at this and I will take any advice you guys may have.
Thanks!
Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing
If your just going to buy/hold, I don't think it really matters. Set it and forget until MRA. But if you want to be more hands on, check out the daily strategies on this site and tspcalc.com.
Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing
Welcome to the forum. Here is a breakdown of the L2050 for January 2018
G: 11.5%
F: 6%
C: 43.45%
S: 14.3
I: 24.75
As it sits now then you are currently allocated 82.5% stocks. If the market were to correct then you would feel that correction if you stayed in the L2050. So buying CSI now or later doesn't provide much benefit that I can see. L2050 in other words is not a safe haven for a market correction.
I second looking at TSPcalc as mentioned above. Currently following #17842. Daily seasonal is a strategy based on 14 years past performance and is not an indicator of future performance. But 17842 is at 28.75% for the year with 24IFT's and is only in stocks 55.2%. There is a good video on tspcalc.com that explains how to use the data at the top of the page. Great resource. Hope this opens the door to the rabbit hole.
G: 11.5%
F: 6%
C: 43.45%
S: 14.3
I: 24.75
As it sits now then you are currently allocated 82.5% stocks. If the market were to correct then you would feel that correction if you stayed in the L2050. So buying CSI now or later doesn't provide much benefit that I can see. L2050 in other words is not a safe haven for a market correction.
I second looking at TSPcalc as mentioned above. Currently following #17842. Daily seasonal is a strategy based on 14 years past performance and is not an indicator of future performance. But 17842 is at 28.75% for the year with 24IFT's and is only in stocks 55.2%. There is a good video on tspcalc.com that explains how to use the data at the top of the page. Great resource. Hope this opens the door to the rabbit hole.
Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing
And read the first few pages of this tread about seasonal investing.
If you would like to be safe during times that are more statistically likely to be "correction" times, seasonal investing is something you should be familiar with.
If you would like to be safe during times that are more statistically likely to be "correction" times, seasonal investing is something you should be familiar with.
Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing
Wow! Thank you so much for the responses! I will take a look into the daily strategies. Thanks for the feedback!
Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing
Welcome and congratulations on your TSP. I highly recommend reading Aitrus's Seasonal Musings 2017 http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.p ... 759#p53759 as well as information on the daily seasonal mixes. Best of luck.
Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing
Welcome, nweis.
The guys are right, read my thread first before diving into the daily strategies. My thread explains things in a monthly pattern instead of a daily one, but the methodology and mindset is the same.
Side note: they pointed you to the one for 2017. I do a new thread every year on this topic, so I'm working on the 2018 thread as we speak.
The guys are right, read my thread first before diving into the daily strategies. My thread explains things in a monthly pattern instead of a daily one, but the methodology and mindset is the same.
Side note: they pointed you to the one for 2017. I do a new thread every year on this topic, so I'm working on the 2018 thread as we speak.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus
Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing
My boyfriend has been sitting out of the market waiting for a correction... for over a year. How much has he lost out on? I don't even want to think about it. It's very hard to time the market. My advice is to jump in and just for for it. You have time to weather a correction before retirement. You can't win the game if you are sitting on the bench.
Current Allocation: 50/50 split F/G Funds, as of 1/3/2018
Strategy: Loosely following Daily Seasonal #16198 until I figure out my 2018 plan when all the main plans start diverging.
Strategy: Loosely following Daily Seasonal #16198 until I figure out my 2018 plan when all the main plans start diverging.
Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing
Gotta play to win!hmarkway wrote:My boyfriend has been sitting out of the market waiting for a correction... for over a year. How much has he lost out on? I don't even want to think about it. It's very hard to time the market. My advice is to jump in and just for for it. You have time to weather a correction before retirement. You can't win the game if you are sitting on the bench.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing
"You can't win if you don't enter."mmmmmbeer wrote:Gotta play to win!hmarkway wrote:My boyfriend has been sitting out of the market waiting for a correction... for over a year. How much has he lost out on? I don't even want to think about it. It's very hard to time the market. My advice is to jump in and just for for it. You have time to weather a correction before retirement. You can't win the game if you are sitting on the bench.
- Ed McMahon
"Timing is everything"
- William Shakespeare
"You have to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run."
- Kenny Rogers
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing
I plan on following strategy 16517. The first IFT is supposed to be done today (01/02/18) before Noon EST. When I go to the TSP website, do I do a Contribution Allocation of 100% to F fund AND an Interfund Transfer of 100% to the F fund?
I guess my confusion is do I do both the Contribution Allocation and the Interfund Transfer at the same time or just the interfund transfer? Sorry if it is a dumb question.
Thanks,
Nancy
I guess my confusion is do I do both the Contribution Allocation and the Interfund Transfer at the same time or just the interfund transfer? Sorry if it is a dumb question.
Thanks,
Nancy
Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing
The most important part is the Interfund Transfer. The Contribution Allocation is less important if you will be following the strategy strictly since you will be moving your money around often enough that it won't sit in one fund for very long.
Some people like to do them both while they are there so that they are truly 100% in their fund of choice. I personally don't worry about my Contribution Allocation. I put everything in the G fund then move it all on my next IFT date.
Some people like to do them both while they are there so that they are truly 100% in their fund of choice. I personally don't worry about my Contribution Allocation. I put everything in the G fund then move it all on my next IFT date.
Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing
Got it! That makes sense. Thank you!
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Re: New and I need help with allocation/timing
He missed out on 20+% returns. You should convince him to at least follow a Monthly strategy.hmarkway wrote:My boyfriend has been sitting out of the market waiting for a correction... for over a year. How much has he lost out on? I don't even want to think about it. It's very hard to time the market. My advice is to jump in and just for for it. You have time to weather a correction before retirement. You can't win the game if you are sitting on the bench.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation ofTimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Fund Prices2024-03-27
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.14 | 0.01% | 1.00% |
F | $19.09 | 0.26% | -0.68% |
C | $82.11 | 0.87% | 10.42% |
S | $82.19 | 1.48% | 6.61% |
I | $42.68 | 0.56% | 6.21% |
L2065 | $16.38 | 0.84% | 8.36% |
L2060 | $16.38 | 0.84% | 8.36% |
L2055 | $16.39 | 0.84% | 8.36% |
L2050 | $32.73 | 0.71% | 6.94% |
L2045 | $14.91 | 0.67% | 6.56% |
L2040 | $54.37 | 0.63% | 6.20% |
L2035 | $14.34 | 0.58% | 5.77% |
L2030 | $47.66 | 0.53% | 5.35% |
L2025 | $13.14 | 0.31% | 3.40% |
Linc | $25.60 | 0.24% | 2.79% |