TSP Charts: Precarious Position on many charts globally

[TSPsmart]

***
You can view my post on the the market's today at TSP Charts: Do You Feel Lucky

Here is the SP500 index (TSP C fund)...



Trade negotiations with China collapsed this week.

Cheers,

[TSP Jedi]

not yet. looks like funds are revisiting a former breakdown area and should act as short term support. bought the S fund dip today

[tspwizard1]

trump doesn't understand how tariffs work. he is lying and telling people USA will take in 100 billion more a year. crazy. this market looks like a double top to me. going down hard.

[TSP Jedi]

Trump and china.... who cares. Market does what market wants to do!

[tspwizard1]

Trump and china.... who cares. Market does what market wants to do!

i would normally agree. but trump's tweets clearly effect the market instantly. makes you wonder who is shorting it before he hits send?

[cswift01]

Trump and china.... who cares. Market does what market wants to do!

i would normally agree. but trump's tweets clearly effect the market instantly. makes you wonder who is shorting it before he hits send?

Funny, I was just wondering the same. Apparently in the UK its big business.

[TSP Jedi]

Truth is the market was up over 25% and its time for a correction. blame china or trump or whatever..... would’ve pulled back regardless

[wcerezo]

***
You can view my post on the the market's today at TSP Charts: Do You Feel Lucky

Here is the SP500 index (TSP C fund)...



Trade negotiations with China collapsed this week.

Cheers,

Please list your assumptions about your chart for us so we can chime to those (point and/or counterpoint).

[TSPsmart]

*****

Where to start...

1) This double top in the stock market was driven by record breaking corporate buybacks in the first quarter - $287 billion bought on the open markets. Many companies are using debt to leverage up their balance sheet to grow EPS reporting.

2) We are entering an SP500 earnings recession which is not conducive to extreme multiples.

3) Highest debt to earnings ratio ever for SP500 including during the financial crisis. Half of SP500 companies debt are rated one notch above junk bonds and many should already be rated junk based on debt ratios.

4) 30% of Russell 2000 companies have negative earnings but losses are not counted in Russell 2000 index' price to earnings - fake PE ratios.

5) Uber which lost $1.8 billion last year and was assigned a PE of 21 ??? by yahoo finance because reality does not matter anymore. The only money Uber will make will be their IPO and that was the point of subsidizing every ride to promote revenue growth.

6) The SP500 exceeded its valuation level of 1929 and 2000 this year in terms of models that have a high correlation to long term FUTURE returns - expect minus 1% annualized the next 10-12 years.

This entire bull market was not driven by the economy (slowest recovery ever), or gross corporate profits (flat since 2012) or future growth potential (buybacks instead of capital investment) so...

When the real driver ends, the party will end. Do you know what the real driver is?

So looking at the charts and knowing the trade deal is off and tariffs on, I simply ask those invested at this point in history... "Do you feel lucky"... because you might need it next week.

On the other hand, the real driver may still be in force and save the day one more time. But in my view, upside return potential today does not compensate for downside risk. Not today.



Cheers,

[michigande]

Thanks for sharing your insights, makes me glad I jumped out late April and tamp down the old FOMO

[TSP Jedi]

not a double top in S&P so you are wrong

[Praetorian]

not a double top in S&P so you are wrong

Thank you for the extremely detailed and we'll thought out counter, your contribution has added immensely to the conversation.

[TSP Jedi]

not a double top in S&P so you are wrong

Thank you for the extremely detailed and we'll thought out counter, your contribution has added immensely to the conversation.

It’s
not
a
double
top!

[evilanne]

It is not wise to trade/invest based on greed or fear.