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General TSP Discussion.

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hugehail
Posts: 602
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2012 10:05 pm

Hello All

Post by hugehail »

I joined yesterday. I'm a weather nut and have been chasing storms since 1992 and currently
work for NOAA/NWS. Unless I am convinced in here, I don't believe in trend lines or methods that are not based on what is going on in the real world. Aside from the minor ups and downs in the market, which don't amount to a hill of beans, I am focused on getting off the elevator up when world events and the US economy are turning ugly, and then getting on the elevator up when I suspect that the bottom is near. I don't mess around with the I fund. It's too much of an unknown quantity for me. I typically avoid doing IFT for the first half of a month unless I absolutely have to and these occasions should be rare. I just hate the feeling of being powerless for the last half of the month in case some calamity happens and the market crashes 20% in 2 weeks--and that could happen any time given all of the religious nutjobs trying to destroy America.

Politically, I am torn between the person I think can help America the most, and the person
who will give me the best chance of holding onto my job!! That's a really tough one. On the one hand, I dread having my pay cut, losing our nice health insurance plan for gov workers and even losing my job all together. But on the other hand, I also dread 4 more years of you know who.

And what am I doing now? I'm still 70% in S and C. But I'm considering putting more in F starting next month as opposed to G. S has been much better than C over the past few years, but I'm not sure that will last since we are near the top of this nice elevator ride. One would think though that this rally since 09 should peak just as high as the rallies in 1999-2000 and the 2007 peak as long as the economy keeps improving. So since there is still potential to go up, I am not about to put my money in the G now and be in a situation where I'm helpless with no more IFT's for the month. We need to keep this rally going!!

JayJ
Posts: 300
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 6:47 am

Re: Hello All

Post by JayJ »

Welcome hugehail. As a storm chaser you should have a pretty high risk tolerance :-). I would say that the stock index funds are more like rollercoaster than elevator - they go up slowly and down fast. Also, you can't get trapped IN the market, you can always get out - i.e. IFT to the G Fund, no matter how many IFTs per month you take to do it. It is only getting in that is limited to 2 IFTs per month. But you are right in the sense that you can get trapped out of the market if you use up your 2 unrestricted IFTs at the early part of the month. My feeling is that daily world and dometic events influence but don't control the markets (the index funds we are limited to). Some people on this site do real well with that, but I think that the markets daily fluctuations are caused by the 1% making day profits through arbitrage. I think that it is futile to try to profit over daily fluctuations with the TSP, it is too slow for that. Pay more attention to week to month long trends. Or if you are young, 6 month to year long trends. To do that I think you have to lose your aversion to trendlines and moving averages. I won't tell you who to vote for, but I would point out that the stock markets and the economy always do better under democratic presidents (for whatever reason). Good luck to you.

hugehail
Posts: 602
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2012 10:05 pm

Re: Hello All

Post by hugehail »

JayJ wrote:Welcome hugehail. As a storm chaser you should have a pretty high risk tolerance :-). I would say that the stock index funds are more like rollercoaster than elevator - they go up slowly and down fast. Also, you can't get trapped IN the market, you can always get out - i.e. IFT to the G Fund, no matter how many IFTs per month you take to do it. It is only getting in that is limited to 2 IFTs per month. But you are right in the sense that you can get trapped out of the market if you use up your 2 unrestricted IFTs at the early part of the month. My feeling is that daily world and dometic events influence but don't control the markets (the index funds we are limited to). Some people on this site do real well with that, but I think that the markets daily fluctuations are caused by the 1% making day profits through arbitrage. I think that it is futile to try to profit over daily fluctuations with the TSP, it is too slow for that. Pay more attention to week to month long trends. Or if you are young, 6 month to year long trends. To do that I think you have to lose your aversion to trendlines and moving averages. I won't tell you who to vote for, but I would point out that the stock markets and the economy always do better under democratic presidents (for whatever reason). Good luck to you.


I learned something. I thought you could move to G 1 last time after you used the 2nd IFT to go to higher risk. I didnt know you could keep moving more and more to G after that. I would like confirmation of this!! That would change my strategy if true.

crondanet5
Posts: 4330
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: Hello All

Post by crondanet5 »

It is true. The question is when-- and should-- you commence making G Fund IFTs. Too early and you lose wealth. Too late and the house takes it.

You face the problem though of always looking at the horizon as opposed to what the weather is doing right now in your garden. I am trying to grasp the concept of Spring as it emerges North and the impact the warming temperatures have on the life cycle of plants, fungi, and insects as Spring moves ever Northward. We have our challenges.

While you attempt to invest in the market with hard realities you are confronted by algorhythmic trading programs and people who live close to rumors that affect the outcome of your trades with no clear way for you to understand what happened. We have some members who are working on cyclical pattern trading and they are encouraged by the results of their studies. But I think you still need to listen to your own inner voice to make the final determination where to put your hard earned dollars.

As for your political direction I find the Republican Party to be in complete disarray as they were when McCain took the nomination with the idea we can live without government and without any funding for the common good. Don't they study history? Haven't we already been there? Shouldn't Kentucky, a Paul state, embrace the no government idea and close up the Social Security offices, the federal judgeships, the military installations? I think that would be a perfect test bed to see how well these Republican ideas would work if implemented nationwide. Wouldn't that be wonderful for the Republican Party and the people of Kentucky?

hugehail
Posts: 602
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2012 10:05 pm

Re: Hello All

Post by hugehail »

crondanet5 wrote:It is true. The question is when-- and should-- you commence making G Fund IFTs. Too early and you lose wealth. Too late and the house takes it.

You face the problem though of always looking at the horizon as opposed to what the weather is doing right now in your garden. I am trying to grasp the concept of Spring as it emerges North and the impact the warming temperatures have on the life cycle of plants, fungi, and insects as Spring moves ever Northward. We have our challenges.

While you attempt to invest in the market with hard realities you are confronted by algorhythmic trading programs and people who live close to rumors that affect the outcome of your trades with no clear way for you to understand what happened. We have some members who are working on cyclical pattern trading and they are encouraged by the results of their studies. But I think you still need to listen to your own inner voice to make the final determination where to put your hard earned dollars.

As for your political direction I find the Republican Party to be in complete disarray as they were when McCain took the nomination with the idea we can live without government and without any funding for the common good. Don't they study history? Haven't we already been there? Shouldn't Kentucky, a Paul state, embrace the no government idea and close up the Social Security offices, the federal judgeships, the military installations? I think that would be a perfect test bed to see how well these Republican ideas would work if implemented nationwide. Wouldn't that be wonderful for the Republican Party and the people of Kentucky?


Well, I just think that Obama presidency = increasing dependency on uncle sam, less personal responsibility, and the evolution of our society to a welfare state. I do not want the US to be an entitlement society like much of Europe has become. But its already happening. People want everything free. Go to some poor areas and look around. Teenagers are walking around with their pants hanging to their knees, just doing nothing. There is no motivation since they get it free from the guubment. Thats said, I dont like the religiosity of the conservative right.

crondanet5
Posts: 4330
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: Hello All

Post by crondanet5 »

Maybe we lean on uncle a bit more with Obama, but is it not the Republicans who seek to cut your benefits, pay, and pension? Why vote for that crowd?

I believe it was on the Bill Moyers show I heard the theme that those who go to Congress intending to drain the bathtub soon find it warm and inviting. And as I look at the Republican candidates there is none there representing the best the Republican Party has in the way of intelligence and statesmanship, rather, old men and those who lost re-election. They scatter seeds of anger and mistrust, all the while assuring us they are best fit to rule. And Obama comes out on the lawn at just the right moment, utters the proper scold to them when their utterings interfere with international posturings and they have no response. Fascinating. Not trying to diss the Republicans, just trying to present the picture as I see it. I mean, I read Ayn Rand a while back and I saw the fallacies it presented, can others not uncover its flaws? At what point, at what level of unfunding, do we lose our present day level of living? Is that what we want? Are we doomed to decay like Rome, like England? Do you know there are Americans who actually covet their English awards because they never qualified for awards from America? Again, fascinating. I once met a woman who had a beautiful cat. When it was suggested she show the cat to receive ribbons, she replied that if she wanted her cat to have ribbons she would make them herself. Always found that point of view interesting. It is not necessarily what others think of us that is important, but what we think of ourselves that is important. How important is the financial footing of America's future to you? Should your dollars go into taxes to repave roads, advance education, and defend our borders or should it be spent on another 6-pack?

hugehail
Posts: 602
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2012 10:05 pm

Re: Hello All

Post by hugehail »

crondanet5 wrote:Maybe we lean on uncle a bit more with Obama, but is it not the Republicans who seek to cut your benefits, pay, and pension? Why vote for that crowd?

I believe it was on the Bill Moyers show I heard the theme that those who go to Congress intending to drain the bathtub soon find it warm and inviting. And as I look at the Republican candidates there is none there representing the best the Republican Party has in the way of intelligence and statesmanship, rather, old men and those who lost re-election. They scatter seeds of anger and mistrust, all the while assuring us they are best fit to rule. And Obama comes out on the lawn at just the right moment, utters the proper scold to them when their utterings interfere with international posturings and they have no response. Fascinating. Not trying to diss the Republicans, just trying to present the picture as I see it. I mean, I read Ayn Rand a while back and I saw the fallacies it presented, can others not uncover its flaws? At what point, at what level of unfunding, do we lose our present day level of living? Is that what we want? Are we doomed to decay like Rome, like England? Do you know there are Americans who actually covet their English awards because they never qualified for awards from America? Again, fascinating. I once met a woman who had a beautiful cat. When it was suggested she show the cat to receive ribbons, she replied that if she wanted her cat to have ribbons she would make them herself. Always found that point of view interesting. It is not necessarily what others think of us that is important, but what we think of ourselves that is important. How important is the financial footing of America's future to you? Should your dollars go into taxes to repave roads, advance education, and defend our borders or should it be spent on another 6-pack?


I worked the night shift and im exhausted. However, that last line you wrote made me laugh.
And of course there is some truth to it. I'm trying to decide whether to put 20 more percent in lower risk bonds before I go to bed. Will we really not rally to 2007 levels?? I was hoping so.

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inla$vega$
Posts: 94
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:06 pm

Re: Hello All

Post by inla$vega$ »

Hugehail -
You said you are still 70% in S and C but considering putting more in F as opposed to G. It looks like G & F have the same YTD return so stick with G for now. Since there are so many strategies and advisors out there; it is impossible to pick the right one. These guys are like "weather forecasters" that are mostly right or when wrong have explainations the following day on what happened. The TSP Center is a great site for getting info and communicating with others that are wandering through the casino looking for the winning game. I'm with you on the disturbing expansion of the federal government and increasing debt. For all the smart people in this TSP Center community it's amazing there is still support for the exorbitant spending and planned tax increases this administration espouses. Fed spending is at 25% GDP and it should be no more than 18% to maintain and promote the free enterprise system that our investments depend on. We don't want the European style socialism that eventually leads to financial and social upheavals, e.g., Greece, et.al. Did you here the Chinese proverb "they thought they were to big to fail."

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flight23
Posts: 1342
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:47 am

Re: Hello All

Post by flight23 »

"Low risk bonds" are a terrible investment at this time in my opinion. Rates will be rising for the next few years so bonds will drop in price, unless the economy tanks again.
@GlobalCollapse on Twitter
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hugehail
Posts: 602
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2012 10:05 pm

Re: Hello All

Post by hugehail »

inla$vega$ wrote:Hugehail -
You said you are still 70% in S and C but considering putting more in F as opposed to G. It looks like G & F have the same YTD return so stick with G for now. Since there are so many strategies and advisors out there; it is impossible to pick the right one. These guys are like "weather forecasters" that are mostly right or when wrong have explainations the following day on what happened. The TSP Center is a great site for getting info and communicating with others that are wandering through the casino looking for the winning game. I'm with you on the disturbing expansion of the federal government and increasing debt. For all the smart people in this TSP Center community it's amazing there is still support for the exorbitant spending and planned tax increases this administration espouses. Fed spending is at 25% GDP and it should be no more than 18% to maintain and promote the free enterprise system that our investments depend on. We don't want the European style socialism that eventually leads to financial and social upheavals, e.g., Greece, et.al. Did you here the Chinese proverb "they thought they were to big to fail."


Well I already made my transfer, 20F, 30F, 40S and 10C. I did very well the past 3 years, taking out when i needed to and putting back in when warranted (except I put back in a little
too early in late 08). So Ive made good money. And I really dont want to sacrafice much of it.
In the past, when I had 50% in the G, I didnt lose much when the market tanked. If I was behind the curve for the past few years, I might be more bullish right now. Also, ive noticed that the F has done well the past few years compared to the G and I missed out on that unfortunately. Perhaps this is just a shortlived trend of the F being not as good. As for politics, most young people are just naive when it comes to politics. They dont live in the real world yet. People tend to get more conservative when they get older and married. Lets hope so or else this country is really effed.

hugehail
Posts: 602
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2012 10:05 pm

Re: Hello All

Post by hugehail »

flight23 wrote:"Low risk bonds" are a terrible investment at this time in my opinion. Rates will be rising for the next few years so bonds will drop in price, unless the economy tanks again.


Well, I made money hand over fist the past 3 years by getting out before the crash,
getting back in right before the crash ended and then making a few other good decisions.
I am not about to risk all my gains by being selfish. So ive opted to increase by lower risk investments to 50%, 40% in S and 10 in C. That way I will still make money if the markets go up and I wont lose all of my hard earned profits if the market goes back down.

crondanet5
Posts: 4330
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: Hello All

Post by crondanet5 »

hugehail are you familiar with market movements in a quadruple witching week?

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flight23
Posts: 1342
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:47 am

Re: Hello All

Post by flight23 »

Im not saying dont move into safe investments, Im saying 'safe' at this point is G, not F. F is in my opinion relatively high risk/reward at this point. Dont underestimate how much value it can lose when interest rates start to rise. Here is a calculator so you can play around with some numbers:

http://www.spreadsheetconverter.com/cal ... ulator.htm

For an idea of current corporate bond rates, see here: http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds/composite_bond_rates

As an example, a $1000 10 year bond with 3% interest rate would drop by about 8% in value if interest rates went up just 1% to 4%. Keep in mind the F fund is a mix of various bonds.

On the flipside, how much potential gain is there in F? Yields are at all time lows, with little to no room to move down further. This means the odds of bond value increases in the F fund are low and the majority of any F fund gains will be via return on capital (yield). Once again, with yields at all time lows I dont think you can expect to get a return of more than 4-5%, presuming interest rates remain low. If G gives 2-3% with zero risk that seems like a much better option to me.
@GlobalCollapse on Twitter
http://twitter.com/#!/GlobalCollapse

hugehail
Posts: 602
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2012 10:05 pm

Re: Hello All

Post by hugehail »

flight23 wrote:Im not saying dont move into safe investments, Im saying 'safe' at this point is G, not F. F is in my opinion relatively high risk/reward at this point. Dont underestimate how much value it can lose when interest rates start to rise. Here is a calculator so you can play around with some numbers:

http://www.spreadsheetconverter.com/cal ... ulator.htm

For an idea of current corporate bond rates, see here: http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds/composite_bond_rates

As an example, a $1000 10 year bond with 3% interest rate would drop by about 8% in value if interest rates went up just 1% to 4%. Keep in mind the F fund is a mix of various bonds.

On the flipside, how much potential gain is there in F? Yields are at all time lows, with little to no room to move down further. This means the odds of bond value increases in the F fund are low and the majority of any F fund gains will be via return on capital (yield). Once again, with yields at all time lows I dont think you can expect to get a return of more than 4-5%, presuming interest rates remain low. If G gives 2-3% with zero risk that seems like a much better option to me.


Hmm. I was looking at the F returns over the past couple years and the last few months and they were very good. I guess things have changed here very recently. But will it hold? Are interest rates really going to rise that much?

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Jahbulon
Posts: 3901
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:22 pm

Re: Hello All

Post by Jahbulon »

The rumor of the bond bubble busting is out there, but it was mentioned every other day in late 2009 and early 2010.

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".