Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Discuss your individual FantasyTSP account allocations, returns, and strategies.

Moderator: Aitrus

alligatorm
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by alligatorm »

nrialto wrote:After missing two "up" days in a row, I generally consider myself as having "missed the boat." Although moving averages for some funds are promising, I don't have much confidence in a continued upside. Rather, I expect more up and down movement within a narrow trading range.

At this point, I'm going to wait for a substantial dip; one that is larger than the roughly 1% down days we've seen recently. The question is, when? I had some reservations about being in G during the last FOMC meeting, but I will most assuredly be in G on Election Day.


nrialto - Why do you say you "will assuredly be in the G fund *on* Election Day"? I always thought the market didn't like uncertainty - which I would assume would be the time LEADING UP TO the election. And then would rally on finally knowing what the outcome (after election day) is.... Isn't that what just happened with the FOMC meeting? The market floundered pre-FOMC announcement and then bolted skyward after the decision was made?
The polls are showing Clinton ahead and generally when the stock market is doing well ahead of an election doesn't the incumbent party usually win? Seems to me that you would want to most assuredly be in the *C/S* on Election Day? right?

nrialto
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Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by nrialto »

Alligatorm, i should've clarified. I didn't mean I would be IFT'ing to G on Election Day. I meant that I would be in G when Election Day arrived; beginning a month before or a day before, I'm not sure yet.

To me, the polls look too close to call. Much like Brexit, I'm basing my guess of the winner not on the polls, but on sentiment on the street. History shows that if it looks like a party other than the incumbent's is going to win, stocks tend to drop.

In regards to returns around election/FOMC, I don't think being risk averse is all that bad. You may miss out on a jump, but there's nothing wrong with waiting a few days after the event to see which way the river is flowing.

There's a potential to make a good gain being in the core funds on Election Day, but to me, the downside risk is too great. I think the market has been looking for a reason to tank all year (to get back to "fair value"), and the election (or the December fed meeting) might just be the catalyst for it.

Additionally, you may want to keep an eye on Monday night's debate. If it looks like Trump has won the night, you can reasonably expect a market drop the next day (because Clinton has a reputation for going along with Wall Street, while Trump brings uncertainty to the markets).

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by nrialto »

Immediately post-debate, futures are up +.50.

It looks like Wall Street thinks Hillary won the debate. After Trump called Yellen "political" for her decision not to raise rates until after the election, they definitely don't want him to win.

Any opinions on who won and how it may affect the market?

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evilanne
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Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by evilanne »

nrialto wrote:Immediately post-debate, futures are up +.50.

It looks like Wall Street thinks Hillary won the debate. After Trump called Yellen "political" for her decision not to raise rates until after the election, they definitely don't want him to win.

Any opinions on who won and how it may affect the market?

The debate didn't change anything IMO--I don't like either. I think most people's with strong belief in either candidate will remain the same and they will think that their candidate "won". Hillary came across better than Trump and comments re: Yellen didn't help Trump. Some of his statements show a lack of knowledge. I'm disappointed that debates were limited to the 2 major parties. Debate would have been much more interesting if they had included the Libertarian and Green Party Candidates. I think the market will bounce up some with percieved Hillary win and no immediate rate hike, but there are so many issues that could impact market +/- that I don't know that you could make any valid prediction based solely on the debate.


alligatorm
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Joined: Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by alligatorm »

I think it boils down to the whole "certainty" vs "uncertainty" issue - the market doesn't like uncertainty - we had two down days leading up to the debate...All the talking heads on the financial channels were worried Trump would make a strong showing.
Now, this morning, every news report is saying Hillary "won" last night...
I'm glad I didn't run to the G fund yesterday (I was very close to making that IFT!) I bet the market will be up today....

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Aitrus
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Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Aitrus »

I agree, alligatorm. The market likes certainty.

I think Hillary won, but it was 7 to 5. He had some good moments as well, but she edged him out because of his style and the openings he let slip past him.

And I agree with evilanne. Most of the electorate has already made up their minds one way or the other, and not many are happy about the choices. If ever an election year needed other options, I think this one would be it.
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Scarfinger
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Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Scarfinger »

Image

Just was retracing me TSP moves and trying to remember why I did what I did. I guess this is why I have heard that you should keep a journal.

My "S" entry on 9/22/2016 was partly because I didn't want to miss a move up. Also my indicator had turned green, but I should have waited for conformation (a breakout above my resistance line). I viewed the gap up as positive, trade with the open window they say. But, the window soon closed. Also the moving averages were still positive. And, I had wrote down a rule that I should trade with the (+) MA which I did not follow earlier in the year that lost me some positive gains.

I stayed in because I figured Hillary would win and the "Bloomberg" types were all saying that HRC is what the market wanted.

It is so hard to make a plan and stick to it... Discipline.

10% skill and 90% blind luck, I am up 15% for the year.

I considered jumping to "G" because we are at resistance and I will be away from a computer for about 1 week. You should wait for some conformation before making any moves. If we get a breakout above the green line it could be good. Others are calling for a more drastic decline if there is a short lived break out upwards.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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Scarfinger
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Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Scarfinger »

"I" Based on this:
Image

Also Timbo and some others transferring to "I"
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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Scarfinger
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Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Scarfinger »

Moving to "G" fund because...

1. I am not sure what the "I" fund response will be with a rate hike
2. I have 2 inter-fund moves available
3. RSI and RSI Stochastics are at overbought areas
4. Recent closings above the Bollinger Bands suggest a pull back

Reasons to stay in the "I" fund:
1. Currently trending up
2. MACD is still bullish
3. May only be a short pull back, and end up missing the next leg up. "Trend is your friend"
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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Scarfinger
Posts: 810
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Scarfinger »

Going 60% "C" and 40% "S"

Trend is your friend
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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Scarfinger
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Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Scarfinger »

Moving to "G" 12/30/2016

"F" looks like the fund to be in for January.

Image

Nothing is guaranteed... but it looks like C/S funds are headed down.

positives for C: at 20 day moving averages, holding at recent support levels, fast stoch may get a bounce back up. Mainly sideways movement, technicals have not broken down completely.

negatives: low volume, MACD, Slow stoch, RSI turning downward.

Image

Image

I am no expert. I just dabble a little bit in this stuff. Good luck.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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Scarfinger
Posts: 810
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Scarfinger »

Transferring to "F" a day early. Going on vacation.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

RollsRoyce
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:10 pm

Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by RollsRoyce »

Good luck and happy travels.

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Scarfinger
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Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Scarfinger's FantasyTSP Account

Post by Scarfinger »

Getting back on track with the Daily. Transfer to "G"
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".