repinda808's FantasyTSP Account

[Aitrus]

This mix is virtually identical to gclapper's M3 Mix. The only difference is that you use the S Fund in Mar instead of the C Fund. I did a quick run of the numbers. At the Since 1988 and Last 20 Years timeframes, the difference in CAGR is below 0.25%. For Last 10 and Last 5, the difference is around 0.5%. gclapper's Mix has only one negative year: 2008. Yours is negative for 2008 and for 1996 (-0.46%). gclapper had 0.06% that year.

I would say the difference between the two is negligible. They are both very good performing mixes that use the I Fund.

[repinda808]

Aitrus,

Thank you for your response. I really appreciate it. Once again, thank you for sharing your information with everyone. Mahalo!

[repinda808]

Today's action was a positive sign for my pending buy back into S. If tomorrow's market is the same, I'll look to execute my 2nd IFT this month either tomorrow or Friday. Depends on whether traffic allows me to get to a computer in time...

[repinda808]

Just executed the IFT to 100% S Fund. Prepared to stay until April's move to I.

[repinda808]

Hoping the I Fund keeps most of its gains over the next 26 hours. Seasonal says C Fund for May, and that's where I'll be.

Just want to point out to anyone reading this something that Aitrus states up front in his Seasonal Musings thread:

Cons:

- If you commit to the strategy, you must follow through with it and ride the emotions that come with rough times. I made the mistake of not doing so in Feb 2014 – the market took a short dive in late Jan / early Feb while I was in the S Fund. I got scared and ran to the F Fund for the duration of Feb because the F Fund is the second-best Fund for that month. While that Feb ’14 was positive for the F fund (0.62%), the S Fund came back strong later in the month and had a return of 5.43%. This mistake on my part made a big difference in my ’14 real-world return. I further compounded the problem when I went looking for an indicator to keep me from losing again – a “stop my losses” trigger of sorts. That indicator ended up failing me because I didn’t fully understand it until I did a lot of digging and research. Before I could finish my learning, the indicator caused even more losses for me in Oct 2014, after which I finally figured out why the indicator didn’t work the way I thought it did. I’ve learned my lesson: follow the data, trust the numbers. The Law of Averages works.

Point being that a lot of people were questioning whether the I Fund, or any of the equities, was worth staying in this past month. Looking to market indicators and trend analysis, or whatever, to "prove" that something's wrong with Seasonal investing. If anyone had lost heart and jumped ship prior to this past week, they would have been sitting in F or G, watching everyone else see huge gains. Watching what the markets did this week just made me think on what Aitrus said.

Once again, a huge thanks to Aitrus for all the great information. Time to move into the C Fund for May. Good luck to everyone!

[Tomanyiron]

...Point being that a lot of people were questioning whether the I Fund, or any of the equities, was worth staying in this past month. Looking to market indicators and trend analysis, or whatever, to "prove" that something's wrong with Seasonal investing...

I resemble that remark.
Yes repinda you are correct, and I'm not too proud to say I was wrong. Well 1/2 wrong. I did see the second half of the month as a good opportunity. I did a little posting on it, but never made an IFT. My system is set for too long-term.
I think I got these numbers right.
From April 1 - 18
C Fund -0.78%
S Fund -1.09%
I Fund -0.87%

From April 18 - today
C Fund +1.95%
S Fund +3.22%
I Fund +3.72%
I was in a bearish position based on some long-looking predictors. and the markets suddenly turn. I failed to act. The research said a good 2 weeks, but I avoided the signal. It was hard to execute that buy signal. Then some denial and avoidance set in.

I have not gave-up on market timing. However I have learned the hard way, that’s it's vital to stay objective. I think I might switch to a shorter term system, by looking at what is actually going on in the market. And not what I have laid-out in my mine as what is coming.

By the way I do see Aitrus as a valuable asset. However "different strokes for different folks". The patterns I provide are my personal beliefs of performance probabilities. Don’t rely on what I post. I see the market in different ways, and may interpret information in different ways. It’s a difficult task, half is research (the easy half, I think), and the other half is mental discipline.

[repinda808]

Tomanyiron,

It wasn't just you, although you are one of the "market indicator" guys I was thinking of. Just that I read a lot of people worrying over losing less than 1% over 3 weeks of trading. Instead of being prepared to ride out the month and let the "Law of Averages" work itself out, it seemed people were trying to find a reason for a quick exit.

What I meant by my post was to remind everyone to trust the system that they are using. Most of us are still in this for the long haul and I've seen the numbers. Seasonal has a good track record of beating "Buy and Hold", which is exactly what I've been trying to find.

While your method is very different from this, I respect the work you do, even if I'm not a total believer. Your posts cause me and others to think about our systems, good or bad. And that's a good thing. Keep doing what you're doing and I hope you the best.

[repinda808]

I Fund +2.62% for April 2017, more than doubling every other fund, except the L2050 (+1.34%). Thanks once again to Aitrus for all your research and work on the seasonality of the TSP offerings. Here's hoping that C Fund has a good month this May. Good luck to everyone!

[repinda808]

Won't be able to access TSP for awhile, so going to IFT early this month. However, going to take a chance on the "I train" instead of moving to F for Jun. With this year being such a good year for the I fund, I think going in 1 month early to this fund may not be a bad move. Only time will tell. Good luck to everyone!

[TheProfit]

Good luck to you as well.

[Chamorrita]

Good luck repinda808

[repinda808]

The I fund had a decent run in July, but I may have eroded some of my gains by forgetting to submit my IFT on time. Heading to F, albeit 3 days late, like the rest of the seasonals.

[repinda808]

Following the seasonal approach with the following mix, F.S.S.I.C.F.I.F.F.C.C.S, I've been able to beat buy and hold for both C and S funds so far this year. However, the daily seasonal returns are just too incredible to pass up. Therefore, I will continue with seasonal investing, switching over to the daily approach. I'm setup to follow 7653 at the moment, but interested in seeing if there's an even better return out there.

I will execute an IFT to S fund sometime tomorrow to ensure I'm in the right fund at the close on the 23rd. As always, I will make the same move in my real TSP that's here on the fantasy TSP. Thanks to Aitrus and mjedlin for all the great work and good luck to everyone!

[mmmmmbeer]

Following the seasonal approach with the following mix, F.S.S.I.C.F.I.F.F.C.C.S, I've been able to beat buy and hold for both C and S funds so far this year. However, the daily seasonal returns are just too incredible to pass up. Therefore, I will continue with seasonal investing, switching over to the daily approach. I'm setup to follow 7653 at the moment, but interested in seeing if there's an even better return out there.

I will execute an IFT to S fund sometime tomorrow to ensure I'm in the right fund at the close on the 23rd. As always, I will make the same move in my real TSP that's here on the fantasy TSP. Thanks to Aitrus and mjedlin for all the great work and good luck to everyone!

Take a look at:

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=7980&years=04-17

Not as high an average as the leader, but much more stable with only a 16.67% standard deviation from the 35% average. Makes it less apt to super high and low fluctuations. Plus... it's only in the CSI funds (exposed) for 58% of the time.

[evilanne]

Using max stddev of 20 and CSI of 60, 8497 & 7474 are also close options with slightly better performance.