TSP Center

Welcome to my FantasyTSP Account topic...

So, now is one of those times where I'm going to deviate just a bit from my Enhanced system for my personal account. In part since the lunar component hasn't been working well lately, and in part since I just have such strong feelings that there will be a bit more downside next week....not much, but down to the 2230's would be perfect. So officially my system moves to the S fund tomorrow, but for my personal account I'll stay with the basic monthly system and hang out in F for a few more days. We'll see how that works, usually not very well.

Never mind, I'm sticking with the system and going to S today.

Could you start a personal fantasy tsp account on this site? This site doesn't track the professional fantasy accounts, except for maybe on a monthly basis and I don't think it's current. I just like to compare myself to you "pros".

You can see his fantasyTSP now but you don't see the detail. I'll be interested to see if it will actually update on a monthly basis...that functionality doesn't appear to be working but it does show 30 day return.
http://tspcenter.com/summary.php?u=19397 TSPTiming
http://tspcenter.com/summary.php?u=6921 Relevant's TSP appears to be all G fund based on returns
http://tspcenter.com/summary.php?u=9157 BBBInvest

The list of "Professional TSP Advisory Returns" that show 0% for all actually links to TSP fantasy if you click on their names

TSPKing intends to update the "professional" advisory services returns on a monthly basis (that's what he told me, but we all understand he's a busy guy so we'll see). I also update my returns periodically in the little banner at the top of the main page on my website. My "enhanced" system isn't off to a great start this year after being in F for the first two weeks, but at least the seasonal strength in January for the F fund is playing out after a long slide for bonds, so I did a bit better than the G fund. My system has some catching up to do now though and it won't be until Spring/Summer that it can get back ahead of the buy-and-holder's. My hunch is that Dow 20K finally happens next week, and S&P 2300 as well. We'll see. If the overseas markets are up Monday then the U.S. will have some catching up to do Tuesday.

I thought this analogy from Tom McClellen today is interesting. Let's all hope this continues!

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/stock_market_still_following_path_of_4_years_ago/

For those interested in seasonal timing, there's some interesting information posted at this fairly new website:
https://seasonax.com/news

I'm interested to see if this post-election year seasonality plays out with another weak February:
http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wa ... ction.html

The reaction to tomorrow's jobs report may determine if that seasonality plays out or not.

I follow several stocks on Nasdaq.com. MU, in the last 5 trading days, followed his pattern on three days and sank in the afternoon the other two. So his pattern is not foolproof.

But there may be another pattern on top of his pattern that would predict which days to trade in the morning and which days to trade in the afternoon. I'll have to follow the Nasdaq charts to see.

Now I looked at the 5 day chart for CHK. That does seem to follow his afternoon pattern. SLV does not.

No, of course that pattern won't work all the time, probably not even near 50% of the time if you try it with individual stocks (I think it would work much better with index ETFs, to buy them around 2 pm eastern time in the long run could work better than buying at just any random time). It's just the pattern over the last six months that on average stocks have followed. I wouldn't be surprised if over the next six months it looks very different, but it would be interesting to see if it changes.

This is one of the articles on that site that I found eye-opening, that over half the S&Ps gains occur in the 24 hours leading up to FOMC announcements...that's astounding:
https://seasonax.com/news/seasonal-insights

So be in the market the Tuesday before FOMC announcement. Have you looked on SentimenTRader to see if they have a chart about what happens to the S&P the days after the FOMC announcement?

Also an update: using the idea that the afternoon is the time to trade, I have altered my sell order on a thousand shares of AMD to wait for the anticipated price rise this afternoon.

cron,

1,000 share of AMD? What's your buy signal? The fundamentals are screaming overpriced. Earnings suck. Unless you're playing the options game for a move in either direction, it seems like a speculative move?

Cron,

Did you sell the AMD shares? My Elliott Waves eye says it looks like most of Friday was a consolidation and I expect another pop higher for AMD on Monday.

As for FOMC patterns, this is interesting:
http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/events/capital ... un2014.pdf
I have no idea if that pattern is continuing since 2014 but from the charts starting on page 38 it looks like you'd want to be in stocks for the week leading up to the FOMC announcement, then out for a week, then back in...repeat as necessary LOL (and that would require more IFTs than the TSP allows but could be used outside of the TSP). For the most recent announcement on 2/1, it doesn't look like that will work out and I think we'll see more upside for at least another week....then around mid-month the typical post-election year February weakness could start playing out into month-end. That guess is also partly based on the current wave patterns (I think a wave 5 up is underway to above 2300) plus this guru that I find entertaining to read, and sometimes quite accurate:
http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter-arch ... /29012017/
I like how he put the 2016 and 2017 election year and post-election year charts together in that article. From a wave 4 low around 2/28, a big 5-wave rally just as shown on the post-election year chart, from about 3/1 all the way to 8/1, would also fit with Jim Puplava's latest guess that we could see a peak in early summer, thanks to the Fed getting too aggressive. I've been listening to him for about 15 years now as part of my Saturday routine when I have time...
http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/b ... 0204-2.mp3

I did not sell by 4 cents. And I missed the after hour market where it popped based upon, I believe, one of the Fast Money talking heads recommending it as a buy. So Monday should be interesting.

skie, I love to buy and sell a thousand shares of stock a day. Don't you? The stock's chart indicates when to buy and when to sell although I did hold MU for several days before selling.

Timing do you have a suggestion for sell price?

Cron...pulling back and just using a daily chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMD&p= ... 7487754427
Just a guess, but it looks like the jump from 10.22 to 12.66 was the wave 3 of 3, the middle of the rally that started on 1/18. I'd need to wait to see where the next wave peaks on Monday or Tuesday, then where the following wave 4 bottoms...then at that point you can take the initial rise from 9.42 to 10.25, or 83 cents, and add that to the next wave 4 low for your target price (assuming wave 5 equals wave 1)...often wave 5's don't equal wave 1's though, maybe only a Fibonacci 0.618 times wave 1, so that's what I'd use for a conservative target (0.618 x 83 cents = 51 cents, so add that to the next low next week). So it's too soon to calculate, but it looks like it's setting up to peak at the same time as the overall market mid-month, then pull back for a couple weeks perhaps. Another way to roughly guess the top....if the last rally from 10.22 to 12.66 was wave 3 of 3, then I'd take the middle of that...11.44 as the center-point of the overall 5-wave rally...and since it started at 9.42 back on 1/18/17...that's 2.02 from the low point to the middle-point....so add another 2.02 to 11.44 to get to the top and you get a target of 13.46. That could be optimistic though....bottom line, I don't really know, I just think it has further to run....I ended my day trading days last year when I got ridiculously lucky with a series of QQQ options trades that finally wiped out years with of short-term losses. I'm now eligible to retire (but plan to go to the end of 2018 due to my situation with the Windfall Elimination Provision, I need to work that long to get 30 years of "substantial earnings" and avoid a permanent cut to my social security), so I figured that was a good time to stop that craziness and settle into my retirement investing plan of just following my system, plus holding a chunky portfolio of dividend paying stocks...and I have to admit, I still can't resist a bit of risky trading and I'm currently holding a few gold/silver miners I bought near the lows (FNV, PVG and FSM), plus some JNUG in both my IRA and trading account. I watch that JNUG daily since you can get wiped out so quickly with 3x ETFs, but I'm with Erik Hadik and other gurus including the late Terry Laundry and think the metals will run to record highs by 2020 or 2021, so (if so) there's lots of money to be made in that sector as inflation slowly heats up.

Going back to MrMaxd's post, I'll try to update my returns on my website weekly on the banner at the top of the page. As of today the basic TSP system is up 1.30% and the Enhanced and Bull/Bear systems are up 1.49%. Not a great start to the year compared to many, but the summer is typically where the system shines. We'll see. I do track my own personal TSP on that "other" TSP website, where I go by the name "Tsunami" and have been posting since 2009.

Lastly, I see that BR549 took away my "reputation" points LOL, apparently he's the class bully here.

Super Bowl Sunday...guess I'll have to root for Atlanta since they beat my 'Hawks.