Le Sigh

General TSP Discussion.

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Carmen909
Posts: 109
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:16 am

Le Sigh

Post by Carmen909 »

All the gains I've had since the start of the year are gone. My TSP was doing great up until mid-March and now it's wiped out. I'm staying the course, it's just frustrating. I've only been contributing 5% plus matching for 2 years so I don't have a lot invested yet and my gains have only been small. It's still disappointing to see what little gains were there diminished and my account balance moving backward!

Buckeyedog
Posts: 108
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2013 2:42 pm

Re: Le Sigh

Post by Buckeyedog »

Hey man, don't sweat this stuff at all. You are at such an early point in all this. In my opinion, you actually WANT a down market. Over time you will buy more shares at lower prices that way. I know the small picture can be frustrating, but long term.......this is just dust. Good luck and hang in there.

Carmen909
Posts: 109
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:16 am

Re: Le Sigh

Post by Carmen909 »

Buckeyedog wrote:Hey man, don't sweat this stuff at all. You are at such an early point in all this. In my opinion, you actually WANT a down market. Over time you will buy more shares at lower prices that way. I know the small picture can be frustrating, but long term.......this is just dust. Good luck and hang in there.


Thanks for the pep talk!! Needed to hear that :)

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evilanne
Posts: 2067
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: Le Sigh

Post by evilanne »

Carmen909,

Suggest to find a strategy/stick with it and increase your contribution rate (10% or more).
Atrius posts the performance results of various seasonal strategies at the end of each month viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13214&start=90 Some do better than others.
Your current allocation of 50% S & C if you used it all year would be 3.73% see http://tspcenter.com/summary.php?uname=Iammarket
C Fund all year is currently at 5.4% for those following Sell in May w/C Fund but also see http://www.tspallocation.com


lmunson
Posts: 42
Joined: Sat Apr 04, 2009 3:43 am

Re: Le Sigh

Post by lmunson »

Just remember when the share price declines and you are still buying you are getting a discount and you haven't lost anything until you sell. I had the same feeling during the '08 recession. Although I hated seeing my account value cut in half, I didn't move to the G or F fund because the losses would have been too great. I just kept buying, telling myself that stocks have gone on sale!

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marine234
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 1:01 pm

Re: Le Sigh

Post by marine234 »

I learned the hard way last year not to jump every time the market did. I watched as the S fund dropped and pulled out to the G losing $6,000.00 in the process, then had to wait two weeks after it bottomed to get back in. I made my money back but figured I could have made about $20,000.00 more if I had just stayed put. I still did o.k., but not near what I could have. I did a few small jumps this year, but now plan on staying put in the S, C, and I for awhile and ride out the storm if it comes. I have 6 years left and history shows that the funds Always go up higher each year (for the most part), you just have to grin and bear it, although it's tuff sometimes.

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mjedlin66
Site Admin
Posts: 1569
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:51 pm

Re: Le Sigh

Post by mjedlin66 »

Just focus on contributing more. The stock market has averaged 8% in the long run. In 4 years as a federal employee, I have managed to build a 68k TSP balance. If you and I get the same returns for the next 30 years, one of us will earn more. The most important thing you can do is find ways to invest more of your paycheck. Maybe increase by 1% each month until you feel balanced. If you do not actively manage your budget, the you may be surprised how much you can squeeze out of it without feeling a difference. Also, perhaps actively managing your budget (if you don't already) is worth looking into. Check out mint.com or YNAB.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

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cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: Le Sigh

Post by cswift01 »

marine234 wrote:I learned the hard way last year not to jump every time the market did. I watched as the S fund dropped and pulled out to the G losing $6,000.00 in the process, then had to wait two weeks after it bottomed to get back in. I made my money back but figured I could have made about $20,000.00 more if I had just stayed put. I still did o.k., but not near what I could have. I did a few small jumps this year, but now plan on staying put in the S, C, and I for awhile and ride out the storm if it comes. I have 6 years left and history shows that the funds Always go up higher each year (for the most part), you just have to grin and bear it, although it's tuff sometimes.


I'm also into all of the equities, although I suspect that I have another 30 years ahead of me. Still, for the most part, removing emotion can pay.

Me

TobiBoy
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:02 am

Re: Le Sigh

Post by TobiBoy »

Carmen909 wrote:All the gains I've had since the start of the year are gone. My TSP was doing great up until mid-March and now it's wiped out. I'm staying the course, it's just frustrating. I've only been contributing 5% plus matching for 2 years so I don't have a lot invested yet and my gains have only been small. It's still disappointing to see what little gains were there diminished and my account balance moving backward!

TobiBoy
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:02 am

Re: Le Sigh

Post by TobiBoy »

Just stay the coarse. You will only lose if you do an IFT.

wisepierre
Posts: 93
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2016 11:55 pm

Re: Le Sigh

Post by wisepierre »

Remember you are in it for the long haul. TSP money is, with some exceptions, locked away until 59.5 -- you are in this for decades, not a few months, not a few years. You are looking at the small picture when you need to think big picture. The more you sock away now, the better. The worse markets are now, as everyone else said, the cheaper stocks are to purchase! I recommend checking your investments once a week, once a month, once a quarter (unless doing seasonal strategies). Focus on saving, and living in the now.

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Le Sigh

Post by Tomanyiron »

I remember someone that stayed mostly in G. But when the market started down, they started buying 1% or 2% at a time. When the market started back up, they reversed the process. As I remember they did pretty good. A contrarian to normal Fear/Greed.

Oh, also you can watch for "contrarian crondanet5" to make a move, then do the opposite. Or do the opposite of that, I can't remember which system pays the most money. But then I believed that "5" at the end of his name means do it 5 days later.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

crondanet5
Posts: 4330
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: Le Sigh

Post by crondanet5 »

I actually thought your F Fund IFT was a good idea. Not sure for how much longer, but at the time it made good contrarian sense.

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Le Sigh

Post by Tomanyiron »

crondanet5 wrote:I actually thought your F Fund IFT was a good idea. Not sure for how much longer, but at the time it made good contrarian sense.


Yea, there maybe some "Turn-Of-The-Month" effect on stocks, starting tomorrow or maybe later this week. That will pull money from the bond fund. I'm looking for your move out of the G fund for my contrarian+5 move.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/186641 ... nth-effect
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

Post Reply

Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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