Leave I-Fund Early?

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ksmoly04
Posts: 66
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:08 pm

Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by ksmoly04 »

Lots of interesting commentary regarding the 1st round Presidential Elections in France this Sunday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres- ... 2017-04-19

Admittedly, no one can predict the outcome... so is there any sense in seeking 'safer' harbors until Tues?
Daily Seasonal Since: August 23, 2017
Current Strategy: 16198 / 7.21σ

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evilanne
Posts: 2067
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Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by evilanne »

ksmoly04 wrote:Lots of interesting commentary regarding the 1st round Presidential Elections in France this Sunday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres- ... 2017-04-19

Admittedly, no one can predict the outcome... so is there any sense in seeking 'safer' harbors until Tues?


The forecasts for the market if LePen wins sounds eerily similar to the predictions for Trump prior to our election last year.

bad70nova
Posts: 245
Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:18 am

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by bad70nova »

I am going to hang in there was wishing for two good days in a row so I could jump ship to safety, but hate jumping while I'm down, but staying in till the end of the month could put me down more oh what to do.

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12squared
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Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by 12squared »

The CAC 40 is up 1.5% today - suggesting French optimism.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
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RKresearch
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:36 am

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by RKresearch »

Yesterday Cramer on Mad Money was all over lurking to see if there is a sell-off in Europe then POUNCING ON US EQUITIES. I'm not a trader and aware that TSP is not trading platform but the strategy does sound like fun.

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cswift01
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Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by cswift01 »

evilanne wrote:
ksmoly04 wrote:Lots of interesting commentary regarding the 1st round Presidential Elections in France this Sunday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres- ... 2017-04-19

Admittedly, no one can predict the outcome... so is there any sense in seeking 'safer' harbors until Tues?


The forecasts for the market if LePen wins sounds eerily similar to the predictions for Trump prior to our election last year.


Trump is a pragmatist. Le Pen is an demagogue/idealist and populist. While I think both are very dislike-able (my auto-correct put "disposable"), I think the comparisons are not necessarily equal.

Remember, however that the French are only a small part of the I-Fund, although if you include the Netherlands and Germany that you get a bigger chunk. Right now the UK and Japan are driving the numbers up. I think, however, one the proceedings of the Brexit go underway, that the I-Fund might be less trustworthy. We'll see though...

Me

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chummel
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Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2011 2:54 pm

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by chummel »

Does the attack yesterday increase the chance Le Pen will be elected and therefore affect an I Fund downward turn?
Craig

DSS

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by DSS »

cswift01 wrote:
Remember, however that the French are only a small part of the I-Fund, although if you include the Netherlands and Germany that you get a bigger chunk.

Me


Although, the implications of the French election really extend to perceived stability of the EU, rather than simply the French domestic markets.

bad70nova
Posts: 245
Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:18 am

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by bad70nova »

Just 1 more good day in the I fund, so I can jump ship not looking like today going to be the day.

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cswift01
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Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by cswift01 »

DSS wrote:
cswift01 wrote:
Remember, however that the French are only a small part of the I-Fund, although if you include the Netherlands and Germany that you get a bigger chunk.

Me


Although, the implications of the French election really extend to perceived stability of the EU, rather than simply the French domestic markets.


That's right, that's why i mentioned the uk and Japan. I do think that there will be great economic consequences to her election if that were to happen. The EU would be in jeopardy. Let's hope for Europe things go well.

Best

Me

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TSPsmart
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Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by TSPsmart »

European markets are drunk on European Central Bank liquidity. The ECB stepped up buying of corporate bonds with money created out of thin air this year.

Do you know what broke the US stock market out of it 2 year sideways pattern to send it to a new high in 2016? The "economically devastating" and unexpected British vote to leave the EU! Market started to tank and miraculously surged higher. It has been doing that a lot lately.

The global central banks (outside of the US) are on pace to inject 3 trillion dollars into financial markets so far in 2017. Forget the economy, forget corporate earnings, forget 1929 & 2000 market valuations, what are the central banks going to do next? That's what matters after any knee-jerk market reaction to the French vote.

nrialto
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:23 pm

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by nrialto »

The French election is Sunday, so it's too late to go get out of I fund this week. However, President Trump just announced that he would release his tax cut package next week... time to move to C or S?

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evilanne
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Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by evilanne »

TSPsmart wrote:European markets are drunk on European Central Bank liquidity. The ECB stepped up buying of corporate bonds with money created out of thin air this year.

Do you know what broke the US stock market out of it 2 year sideways pattern to send it to a new high in 2016? The "economically devastating" and unexpected British vote to leave the EU! Market started to tank and miraculously surged higher. It has been doing that a lot lately.

The global central banks (outside of the US) are on pace to inject 3 trillion dollars into financial markets so far in 2017. Forget the economy, forget corporate earnings, forget 1929 & 2000 market valuations, what are the central banks going to do next? That's what matters after any knee-jerk market reaction to the French vote.
Good Points! But how did Brexit break us out of the sideways trading pattern? Are you saying that this is when the EU started significant QE?
Article on EU QE: https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstal ... 230dbc4d82

I'm thinking that the outcome of the French election may be a good short term buying opportunity like Brexit, but a Frexit would have a bigger impact due to them using the Euro whereas Britain maintained their currency & never adopted the Euro.

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cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by cswift01 »

evilanne wrote:
TSPsmart wrote:European markets are drunk on European Central Bank liquidity. The ECB stepped up buying of corporate bonds with money created out of thin air this year.

Do you know what broke the US stock market out of it 2 year sideways pattern to send it to a new high in 2016? The "economically devastating" and unexpected British vote to leave the EU! Market started to tank and miraculously surged higher. It has been doing that a lot lately.

The global central banks (outside of the US) are on pace to inject 3 trillion dollars into financial markets so far in 2017. Forget the economy, forget corporate earnings, forget 1929 & 2000 market valuations, what are the central banks going to do next? That's what matters after any knee-jerk market reaction to the French vote.
Good Points! But how did Brexit break us out of the sideways trading pattern? Are you saying that this is when the EU started significant QE?
Article on EU QE: https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstal ... 230dbc4d82

I'm thinking that the outcome of the French election may be a good short term buying opportunity like Brexit, but a Frexit would have a bigger impact due to them using the Euro whereas Britain maintained their currency & never adopted the Euro.


Evilanne,

My thoughts exactly, although it depends on how long you have until retirement. I have 30 years, so I see this as a potential buying opportunity. I'm sure that Le Pen will be one of the 2, so the stock market will probably do worse in Europe next week, which is a great buying opportunity. I'm not sure if this will pull the I Fund down, but there will definitely be downward pressure.

Best,

Me

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cswift01
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Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Post by cswift01 »

For anyone that compares Le Pen to Trump, look at this article:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europe ... 2017-04-24

also look at how strong the Euro has gotten today. Brexit caused many hardships for the UK and this French election might not be much different.

Best,

Me

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