The daily seasonal strategy

[Longstreet]

Jdunn,

That is the impression that I have been getting as well. However, it looks like some are coming up with new strategies on MJ's website that are getting even better returns than the daily seasonal strategy he developed.

For now I'm trying out the daily seasonal strategy but also keeping an eye on Jahbulon's mix and a few of the other monthly seasonals Aitrus does such an awesome job of tracking.

As an aside: MJ & Aitrus, thanks for all of the great work you guys have put into this! I know past performance is no guarantee but here is to hoping these strategies have the potential to give us all a nice nest egg and then some for retirement.

[evilanne]

I'm new to this website and have already found some great information. I'm new to the idea of seasonal mixes. I'm always trying to learn more about TSP and improving my returns.

The original post on this thread shows a total return of 339.51% from 2008-2016 which far exceeds glaccper's M3 Mix totals over the same period of 170.48%.

Are we at a solid consensus that the daily seasonal strategy can nearly double the return performance of the seasonal strategy mixes?

I don't think you are going to get a consensus for anything here The returns on the daily strategy are impressive but you have to remember what all investment prospectus state, something to the effects that past performance does not guarantee future results. The stock market is risky...so select your strategy based on your own risk tolerance. The difference between MJ's method and the other seasonal mixes is more frequent IFTs which may increase the risk either positive or negative, higher potential returns or losses.

[mjedlin66]

There was an error in the 1st post. The October IFT should be S on the 7th day, not S on the 8th. I fixed it as well as the 2017 dates in the original post.

[USA]

People really need to stop overthinking this.

[Ohura]

Nicely done.

[mmmmmbeer]

Does anyone have a spreadsheet I can stick the numbers in 2017 YTD?

[StormVet]

People really need to stop overthinking this.

Funny, and true.

[LuckyLarry]

I'm new to this website and have already found some great information. I'm new to the idea of seasonal mixes. I'm always trying to learn more about TSP and improving my returns.

The original post on this thread shows a total return of 339.51% from 2008-2016 which far exceeds glaccper's M3 Mix totals over the same period of 170.48%.

Are we at a solid consensus that the daily seasonal strategy can nearly double the return performance of the seasonal strategy mixes?

I don't think you are going to get a consensus for anything here The returns on the daily strategy are impressive but you have to remember what all investment prospectus state, something to the effects that past performance does not guarantee future results. The stock market is risky...so select your strategy based on your own risk tolerance. The difference between MJ's method and the other seasonal mixes is more frequent IFTs which may increase the risk either positive or negative, higher potential returns or losses.

Agree.

[mmmmmbeer]

Ok... so I'm trying to find rates of return for 2017 year to date.

I'm getting that the IFT change date is the date we need to enter in the IFT before noon eastern.

So... I made up a calendar to guide myself on the "trading days" and I'm color coding the IFT dates into the calendar.

I'm assuming the ROR for the day the IFT needs to be counted from the previous fund before the change because the change won't take effect until the next trading day?

Love that it took me only a couple months in to go...... AAWWWWW DAAAAMMMIT... and now I'm going back to recalculate as I'm a day off here or there with ROR.

[BigBrenda]

Ok... so I'm trying to find rates of return for 2017 year to date.

I'm getting that the IFT change date is the date we need to enter in the IFT before noon eastern.

So... I made up a calendar to guide myself on the "trading days" and I'm color coding the IFT dates into the calendar.

I'm assuming the ROR for the day the IFT needs to be counted from the previous fund before the change because the change won't take effect until the next trading day?

Love that it took me only a couple months in to go...... AAWWWWW DAAAAMMMIT... and now I'm going back to recalculate as I'm a day off here or there with ROR.

LOL.

[mjedlin66]

2017 YTD is 10.5%.

[mmmmmbeer]

2017 YTD is 10.5%.

My rates of return aren't perfect as I've got to recheck them all a few times and my little girl and her sleep over buddy are hogging the computer but dude.. If they are remotely correct, this stupid daily season mix is already at somewhere around 11% return from Jan 3 - May 26!!

That's it.. I'm switching...

Great work on this man.

[mmmmmbeer]

2017 YTD is 10.5%.

I'm betting yours is closer than mine...

Where do you find a single days rate of return, say the I Find for Jan 3 alone for instance?


I had used Google ticker EGG, DWSomethingCF, SP500, etc instead of the TSP centers chart.. which of course I found right before getting kicked off in the name of sleepover sing along!:[

[mjedlin66]

Pull share prices straight from the source:
https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/Fun ... index.html

Then calculate the day over day change.

The current developer version of the seasonal calculator does all of this for you. It updates the share price database automatically every day, and then calculates all of the daily change percentages, and spits out the 2017 YTD of whatever calculation you have input.

The top-100 leaderboard is done too. It will show you the top 100 calculations for whatever year range you have input into the calculator.

This is a massive website update. Beside the leaderboard and the 2017 YTD, I had to completely restructure the database and a lot of the scripting. Then I had to write new scripts so that old links to the calculator (which are based on the old database structure and old scripts) will still work. I need to do some more testing and tweak the code as necessary to avoid errors. It will be published probably tomorrow night.

[mmmmmbeer]

This is a massive website update. Beside the leaderboard and the 2017 YTD, I had to completely restructure the database and a lot of the scripting. Then I had to write new scripts so that old links to the calculator (which are based on the old database structure and old scripts) will still work. I need to do some more testing and tweak the code as necessary to avoid errors. It will be published probably tomorrow night.

This last part you may as well have written it in Cantonese. I may have forgotten to mention I'm an 1811 series? Soooo... let's slow down with all the big words.