Final 2016 Advisory Services Performance

[Roguejim]

Just saw this at TSP Strategy.

We now have TSP Pilot's 2016 returns. 
We'll give TSP Investing to Aug.  If they don't update by then, we'll eliminate them.

Final 2016 Advisory Services Performance
 
TSP Wealth...............................12.9% (free)
TSP Millionaire..........................10.3% ($132/yr)
TSP Advisor................................8.2% ($120/yr)
Rev Shark.................................. 7.8% ($199/yr) 
TSP Max.....................................6.8% ($100/yr)  
TSP Folio....................................6.7% ($149/yr)
Coolhand ...................................5.6% ($227/yr)
TSP Pilot ....................................5.4% ($150/yr)
TSP Coach.................................3.9% ($60/yr) 
TSP Key.....................................2.9% ($99/yr)
Intrepid Timer............................. 2.7% ($300/yr) 

TSP Strategy...............................7.5% (free)

Awaiting Final Performance

TSP Investing……………………1.4% ($144/yr) thru Oct

[ArrieS]

I would like to remind people to check performance over a long period of time, not a single set period.

Case in point, TSP Wealth that has the highest return for last year. If you go to his website, it tracks his performance since 2005 and the total return for that time is 88.36%.

The S&P total return (dividends reinvested) for the same time period is 137.70% for buy and hold.

[Roguejim]

I would like to remind people to check performance over a long period of time, not a single set period.

Case in point, TSP Wealth that has the highest return for last year. If you go to his website, it tracks his performance since 2005 and the total return for that time is 88.36%.

The S&P total return (dividends reinvested) for the same time period is 137.70% for buy and hold.

Thanks. I'd like to see the long term performance for all of the advisory services, and compare them to buy-and-hold. After reading The Boglehead's Guide to Investing, which encompasses a strict buy-and-hold strategy, I'm not sure who's telling the truth, and who's not.

[mmmmmbeer]

So I was trying to tell a co-worker about seasonal mix strategies, but he was having none of it and was very dismissive. He went on to tell me this company he pays to tell him monthly what splits he should be putting his money in. He mentioned his hefty 10.3% ror for last year. Then he tried to convince me to jump in his way and the options to pay them monthly or yearly. I didn't say much, because Jubulons as at 21% last year for free.

After seeing this OP I now know it was the TSP millionaire he's paying for.

To each his own... but I don't understand why after seeing both he would still choose to pay someone for an inferior ROR.

[Roguejim]

Unless I'm missing something, the S&P 500 closed out 2016 @ 9.4% for the year. Only two of the advisory services listed above beat it. Have I got that right? A buy and hold strategy in the C Fund would have beaten all but two of the advisory services?

[Roguejim]

Unless I'm missing something, the S&P 500 closed out 2016 @ 9.4% for the year. Only two of the advisory services listed above beat it. Have I got that right? A buy and hold strategy in the C Fund would have beaten all but two of the advisory services?

EDIT: I've been corrected, i.e., the S&P 500 number for 2016 was closer to 12%.

[mjedlin66]

The daily seasonal returned 10.67% in 2016. Looks like my free strategy beat all but 1 of the advisors listed. Even then, I lost to the S fund.

But as ArrieS stated, you need to think longer than 1 year.

Compare my daily seasonal to Jahbulon's basic, C, S, and I for 2004-2017:

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=24&y ... ulon-C-S-I

Then also look at 2016 through 2017 YTD, in which Jahbulon has the definite lead, and I am tied with the highest core fund.

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=24&y ... ulon-C-S-I

[ArrieS]

The daily seasonal returned 10.67% in 2016. Looks like my free strategy beat all but 1 of the advisors listed. Even then, I lost to the S fund.

But as ArrieS stated, you need to think longer than 1 year.

Compare my daily seasonal to Jahbulon's basic, C, S, and I for 2004-2017:

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=24&y ... ulon-C-S-I

Then also look at 2016 through 2017 YTD, in which Jahbulon has the definite lead, and I am tied with the highest core fund.

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=24&y ... ulon-C-S-I

How do they compare to buy and hold?

[mjedlin66]

That's in there.

[Jted1785]

Thank you for that link, I was following Jahbulon but after looking at that calculator I want to follow one of the 35% mixes. Are you not going with one of the top percentage funds of 35%?

[mmmmmbeer]

Thank you for that link, I was following Jahbulon but after looking at that calculator I want to follow one of the 35% mixes. Are you not going with one of the top percentage funds of 35%?

Dude.. just click on one of them. The whole chart and ROR comes up.

[ArrieS]

That's in there.

I can't open the links. I'm in Afghanistan, so my internet is provided by the US Government and that site is blocked because it's uncategorized.

[Jted1785]

I think you misunderstood my question. What I'm asking is he following Jahbulon mix vs the top calculator fund when the calculator fund out performs Jahbulon by nearly 20%?

[evilanne]

Total Compound Return: 2016 & 2017 thru May http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=24&y ... ulon-C-S-I

MJ = 22.30 % Jab = 28.26 % C = 21.88 % S= 22.74 % I= 16.36 %

Total Compound Return: 2004 - 2017 thru May http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=24&y ... ulon-C-S-I

MJ=4,139.27% Jab=444.21% C=188.36% S=246.54% I=117.35%

[mjedlin66]

Thanks evilanne.