Seasonal Calculator Launch
Moderator: Aitrus
Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
Man, you guys think too hard.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"
Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
mjedlin66 wrote:Man, you guys think too hard.
You opened Pandora's box with the potential of this thing.
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Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
Thinking too much... I'm reminded of that old sage, Quick Draw McGraw... "I'll do all the thinnin' around here Baba Looey!" Not relevant to the subject, but that's my random thought for the day.
Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
Following #6861 right now, which luckily happens to coincide with the previous one I was following for the month. So yesterday was the IFT to the "I" fund for the next few days. Boom! This morning we're up more one hour than we have been the entire month this far in the G+F.
Obviously it's not going to work out like that all the time... but when it does... it's pretty sweeet!
Obviously it's not going to work out like that all the time... but when it does... it's pretty sweeet!
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
mmmmmbeer, agreed. It's pretty early in the year to tell if it's coincidence or not, but I have to say, the daily seasonal has been great so far. It seems like the IFT's and their subsequent performance have been accurate; almost to the day.
Hopefully I'm not overthinking this. Am I overthinking this? I hope I'm not overthinking this...
Hopefully I'm not overthinking this. Am I overthinking this? I hope I'm not overthinking this...
Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
nrialto wrote:mmmmmbeer, agreed. It's pretty early in the year to tell if it's coincidence or not, but I have to say, the daily seasonal has been great so far. It seems like the IFT's and their subsequent performance have been accurate; almost to the day.
Hopefully I'm not overthinking this. Am I overthinking this? I hope I'm not overthinking this...
I don't think you are bro... . All's I know is I started today with a .41 month of June and ended today with sumphin like 1.23% .
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
For those of you who are worried about outlier years, this is the plan:
In version 2.0, the leaderboard will have more data columns. One will be Standard Deviation. In addition to more data, you will be able to sort and filter the data. For instance, you will be able to sort the data by highest average with a maximum standard deviation of +/- 20%. You can change this filter to any value. You can remove above +/-15%, +/-16%, whatever. That will remove strategies with highly irregular outliers. You will also be able to sort it by Standard Deviation or sort it by compound, etc.
There will also be 5 new "Time in G, F, C, S, I" columns. So if you want a strategy list sorted by highest average limited to a standard deviation of 20% AND doesn't use the I fund at all, you can generate that list.
The caveat is you have to wait several months for version 2.0.
In version 2.0, the leaderboard will have more data columns. One will be Standard Deviation. In addition to more data, you will be able to sort and filter the data. For instance, you will be able to sort the data by highest average with a maximum standard deviation of +/- 20%. You can change this filter to any value. You can remove above +/-15%, +/-16%, whatever. That will remove strategies with highly irregular outliers. You will also be able to sort it by Standard Deviation or sort it by compound, etc.
There will also be 5 new "Time in G, F, C, S, I" columns. So if you want a strategy list sorted by highest average limited to a standard deviation of 20% AND doesn't use the I fund at all, you can generate that list.
The caveat is you have to wait several months for version 2.0.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"
Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
mjedlin66 wrote:For those of you who are worried about outlier years, this is the plan:
In version 2.0, the leaderboard will have more data columns. One will be Standard Deviation. In addition to more data, you will be able to sort and filter the data. For instance, you will be able to sort the data by highest average with a maximum standard deviation of +/- 20%. You can change this filter to any value. You can remove above +/-15%, +/-16%, whatever. That will remove strategies with highly irregular outliers. You will also be able to sort it by Standard Deviation or sort it by compound, etc.
There will also be 5 new "Time in G, F, C, S, I" columns. So if you want a strategy list sorted by highest average limited to a standard deviation of 20% AND doesn't use the I fund at all, you can generate that list.
The caveat is you have to wait several months for version 2.0.
You're like a drug dealer mjedlin66!! "First taste is free."
Always leave em wanting more.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
mmmmmbeer wrote:nrialto wrote:mmmmmbeer, agreed. It's pretty early in the year to tell if it's coincidence or not, but I have to say, the daily seasonal has been great so far. It seems like the IFT's and their subsequent performance have been accurate; almost to the day.
Hopefully I'm not overthinking this. Am I overthinking this? I hope I'm not overthinking this...
I don't think you are bro... . All's I know is I started today with a .41 month of June and ended today with sumphin like 1.23% .
The EFA strikes again.. ticker showed .89%... looks like the "I" was only .47%.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
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Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
mmmmmbeer wrote:The EFA strikes again.. ticker showed .89%... looks like the "I" was only .47%.
I hope it goes both ways since EFA's down about the same today.
Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
SurelyJame wrote:mmmmmbeer wrote:The EFA strikes again.. ticker showed .89%... looks like the "I" was only .47%.
I hope it goes both ways since EFA's down about the same today.
A beating.. we're taking a beating today! Oh well there's always tomorrow!
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
mmmmmbeer wrote:SurelyJame wrote:mmmmmbeer wrote:The EFA strikes again.. ticker showed .89%... looks like the "I" was only .47%.
I hope it goes both ways since EFA's down about the same today.
A beating.. we're taking a beating today! Oh well there's always tomorrow!
The beatings will continue until the market improves!
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
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Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
Support the site by purchasing a membership at TSPCalc! https://tspcalc.com
Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
SurelyJame wrote:mmmmmbeer wrote:The EFA strikes again.. ticker showed .89%... looks like the "I" was only .47%.
I hope it goes both ways since EFA's down about the same today.
Haha it worked!! EFA -.99% today vs. "I" fund at -.27% is all!!!
Whuuuhouuuu!!
Sooo... obviously the EFA is not even a close match to guess with.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.
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Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
mjedlin66 wrote:For those of you who are worried about outlier years, this is the plan:
In version 2.0, the leaderboard will have more data columns. One will be Standard Deviation. In addition to more data, you will be able to sort and filter the data. For instance, you will be able to sort the data by highest average with a maximum standard deviation of +/- 20%. You can change this filter to any value. You can remove above +/-15%, +/-16%, whatever. That will remove strategies with highly irregular outliers. You will also be able to sort it by Standard Deviation or sort it by compound, etc.
There will also be 5 new "Time in G, F, C, S, I" columns. So if you want a strategy list sorted by highest average limited to a standard deviation of 20% AND doesn't use the I fund at all, you can generate that list.
The caveat is you have to wait several months for version 2.0.
Sounds great! Thank you!
Re: Seasonal Calculator Launch
Here's one I created that's the top of the leader board now. I spent a day messing in Excel to come up with the mix. 36.53% average return. 6,498.04% compound.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=7573 ... lin66-7563
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=7573 ... lin66-7563
Fund Prices2024-04-18
Fund | Price | Day | YTD |
G | $18.19 | 0.01% | 1.27% |
F | $18.62 | -0.30% | -3.14% |
C | $78.45 | -0.21% | 5.50% |
S | $76.12 | -0.20% | -1.27% |
I | $40.67 | 0.02% | 1.21% |
L2065 | $15.58 | -0.13% | 3.04% |
L2060 | $15.58 | -0.13% | 3.04% |
L2055 | $15.58 | -0.13% | 3.04% |
L2050 | $31.35 | -0.13% | 2.44% |
L2045 | $14.32 | -0.12% | 2.35% |
L2040 | $52.37 | -0.11% | 2.29% |
L2035 | $13.85 | -0.10% | 2.21% |
L2030 | $46.21 | -0.09% | 2.15% |
L2025 | $12.93 | -0.05% | 1.72% |
Linc | $25.28 | -0.04% | 1.51% |