July - The Next IFT

[Five-O]

C according to the seasonal plan.

People really need to stop overthinking this.

[JrEwing]

With ya 5-0

[TampaTed]

Going with the seasonal tide to C.

[Foghorn2]

Since 2001 (when it was created), the I Fund has returned a .09% better average return than the C Fund for July. I have read that some seasonals avoid the I Fund altogether, but, in doing so, they are not going off a mathematical formula (which is fine). If you are basing your seasonal on recent averages, the I fund is the choice.

I believe that is why the top daily calculators split the month of July down the middle. One thing I noticed, is that the top calculators stay in the I fund until TD1 of Aug. If you look at the average daily returns for TD21, TD22 (Jul) and TD1 (Aug), the average daily I fund return is: $-0.01, $0.00, and $0.00 (this also accounts for data from 2003, which tspcalc does not use).

Deduction: those TDs are a crap shoot for the I Fund, and if anything, lean negative based on the historical numbers. A late return to the G Fund may be appropriate, with an IFT on TD 20 (Jul), if you follow daily seasonal.

Best of luck.

[CDZ]

I'm new to all this have no idea what I'm doing but I'm in my mid 20's and plan on working for the next 39 years. I was reading some forums and some material on here. On July 17th I moved 20% of my allocations to the I Fund while leaving the other 80% in Life cycle 2050. Like I said I don't know what I'm doing but was satisfied on the returns I got in just two days. I'm a very conservative person financially. For this reason I plan on leaving at least roughly 50% in the lifecycle fund as I increase my allocations else where. Is it an ignorant idea to maintain half if not a majority of my TSP in the lifecycle fund? I am following this seasonal strategy. http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=24&years=12-16. If anyone has a better one please let me know. Thanks

[evilanne]

CDZ,
What do you plan to do if there is a significant market correction? Can you withstand a 30% loss?
Select the L Funds from inception and look at how the L2040 did in 2008 @
https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/Fun ... turns.html I don't like the L Funds because it only gives a false sense of security if you are risk adverse. The L2050 currently has 84% invested in C, S & I funds It is similar to buy & hold with dollar cost averaging of amount actually invested in the fund. There isn't necessarily one single strategy that is correct and all involve risk, but you should be invested for the long term. I recommend you learn about what each funds represent and the different investment options & strategies. You can always try following on of the leaders but you should understand what you are doing and why you are doing it.

[CDZ]

Thank you for your reply. Right now I am following the link I posted in my comment above. I will see now that goes and adjust accordingly in about a year. Hopefully I will have "learned to walk" by then. That is the reason I have a majority of it still in lifecycle. If you have some good reading material on understanding this real life game will you post below? On August 1st I will IFT the amount in the I fund to the F fund.... I have no idea what I'm doing

[evilanne]

You are young...If you mess up, it will be a learning experience and you have plenty of time to figure it out of make it up. Suggest you read Aitrus's Seasonal Musing the first few pages.

Recommended Reading Lists:

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474 & http://www.tspallocation.com/tspresources/#reading