Strength and Mood

General TSP Discussion.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Tuesday August 15, 2017
F fund showing down-trend, over the past 4 trading days. The stock funds have generally worked their way up, in the same period of time.
All of that is just reflections of the short story.
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Mood has been on the down-track since July 25, (the C fund since Aug 7). That’s the big story.
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"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Wednesday August 16, 2017
The stock funds are trying to dig themselves out of trouble, while the F fund ~ meanders.
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"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Thursday August 17, 2017
Both Strength and Mood are pushing the F fund. But how do you get there is the question? No IFTs, not wanting to sell low, is there a bounce before more trouble? What did Thomas Paine say? I think it was something like this “THESE are the times that try men's sanity”. Image Image
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Friday August 18, 2017
Increased concerns for the stock funds, while bonds are making moderate gains.
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"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Aitrus
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Aitrus »

Tomanyiron wrote:What did Thomas Paine say? I think it was something like this “THESE are the times that try men's sanity”.


You're close. "THESE are the times that try men's souls."

It's the opening line of an inspirational pamphlet published by Paine in 1776 and read before the Continental Army on 23 December 1776, a couple of days before the Battle of Trenton. That was the battle right after Washington crossed the Delaware.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

fzyjZyjmj
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by fzyjZyjmj »

could you please post the graphs for next week?

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evilanne
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by evilanne »

LOL No Crystal Balls Here :lol:

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

fzyjZyjmj wrote:could you please post the graphs for next week?

Someone that has an in-depth knowledge of Chaos Theory might be able to do that.

"Chaos theory has been applied to many different things, from predicting weather patterns to the stock market. Simply put, chaos theory is an attempt to see and understand the underlying order of complex systems that may appear to be without order at first glance.

Complex chaotic systems are vulnerable to minor changes (butterfly effect applies) causing a big perturbation in the system pushing it far away from its equilibrium. Therefore we are usually able to predict behavior of such systems (such as the state of atmosphere and the weather) with a small error over a short period of time, until the minor errors accumulate and the system of feedback loops moves the system in a different direction than the prediction models."
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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evilanne
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by evilanne »

Chaos Theory is interesting but way beyond my capability. Here is Forecasting website that is interesting https://www.forecasts.org/stpoor.htm but I haven't found anything that really mirrors the other TSP funds and it is on a monthly basis.

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Aitrus
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Aitrus »

Everything I know about Chaos Theory I learned from reading Jurassic Park and watching the movie.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

Octjan2
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Octjan2 »

Still staying in the S fund and keeping my faith in tax reform and some of the other Trump agenda getting passed. It's hard to imagine the Republican house and Senate letting this opportunity pass before the 2018 election. I don't worry about declines as much as missing out on big gains. The market has always returned to highs, but sometimes we can't get back the gains we miss. I think once the market gets convinced tax reform is probable again, we will see a 2-3% one day gain in the small caps. It is then that everybody will be chasing the gains.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Monday August 21, 2017
Strength about the same as two previous days. Mood came up to zero. A boring day, better spent standing outside gazing straight up at the sky. (((If you’re having problems reading this, you must have been wearing the wrong eclipse glasses 8-) yesterday.))) :shock: :cry:
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"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

Updated EOD Tuesday August 22, 2017
Dinah Washington said it, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmBxVfQTuvI
“What a difference a day makes”. The Mood line came within a hair of crossing above the price line. Typically this kind of action means something. However I have never seen what a full-fledged bull trap looks like on these charts.
Image Image
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

ron.logan
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by ron.logan »

"Typically this kind of action means something."

Please share what it means to you, define 'something'. thanks

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Strength and Mood

Post by Tomanyiron »

ron.logan wrote:"Typically this kind of action means something."

Please share what it means to you, define 'something'. thanks

Ron the cycles can be a mystery sometimes, but from my experience stocks moving up in a big way yesterday. And combining that with two previous days of rising strength. “Typically” suggest a change from down-trend to up. But as I said, sometimes there are “bull traps”, not often but sometimes.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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