Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

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Cpayne09
Posts: 46
Joined: Mon May 05, 2014 1:51 pm

Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by Cpayne09 »

At least we're not all in the G fund permanently anymore. As long as you're doing something then it's a win in my book :)

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maui21ice
Posts: 242
Joined: Thu Dec 05, 2013 8:45 pm

Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by maui21ice »

Jumped into the F-fund about halfway through the F-move in August. I'll go S-fund on August 23rd to line up with the top strategy. :)

Jalpunk
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Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:07 am

Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by Jalpunk »

I've been reading this forum the last week or 2 and am going to jump on to the seasonal strategy. I am currently split among the C, S and I funds (don't ask why). I have already done 1 IFT this month, so should I just wait until the 23rd to transfer 100% to the S fund, or do it today 3 days early to cut the C and I losses that look to be continuing (and hopefully buy low in the S fund). I understand if people are apprehensive on giving this kind of advice, but since I am a newbie I am curious on peoples thoughts. Thanks!

Travis1984
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Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:24 pm

Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by Travis1984 »

Jalpunk wrote:I've been reading this forum the last week or 2 and am going to jump on to the seasonal strategy. I am currently split among the C, S and I funds (don't ask why). I have already done 1 IFT this month, so should I just wait until the 23rd to transfer 100% to the S fund, or do it today 3 days early to cut the C and I losses that look to be continuing (and hopefully buy low in the S fund). I understand if people are apprehensive on giving this kind of advice, but since I am a newbie I am curious on peoples thoughts. Thanks!


I am not a financial advisor.

But I've been telling my buddies who are about to jump in to wait until the 23rd. Calculated risk for sure. But who knows, the bounce back might be pretty good a few days early. Good luck with your decision.
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."

Yoda

Jalpunk
Posts: 31
Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:07 am

Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by Jalpunk »

Travis1984 wrote:
Jalpunk wrote:I've been reading this forum the last week or 2 and am going to jump on to the seasonal strategy. I am currently split among the C, S and I funds (don't ask why). I have already done 1 IFT this month, so should I just wait until the 23rd to transfer 100% to the S fund, or do it today 3 days early to cut the C and I losses that look to be continuing (and hopefully buy low in the S fund). I understand if people are apprehensive on giving this kind of advice, but since I am a newbie I am curious on peoples thoughts. Thanks!


I am not a financial advisor.

But I've been telling my buddies who are about to jump in to wait until the 23rd. Calculated risk for sure. But who knows, the bounce back might be pretty good a few days early. Good luck with your decision.


Thanks for the input Travis1984. I decided to stay put until the 23rd.

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maui21ice
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Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by maui21ice »

I still had both of my IFT's so I used it to go F last week, and it paid off yesterday with down days big time. Hoping the F can cruise a bit more before the jump to stocks.

Jalpunk, don't hesitate to ask questions here. Newbie or vet, we are willing to help and want to see each other thrive into retirement. :)

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evilanne
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Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by evilanne »

In 2015, the market took a dive on ~August 24th, I think it was due to oil, China etc. S Fund was hit much harder than the S&P 500; I remember it well (large percentage in Stock Funds and no IFTs) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... _500_Index
Each year can be different so it doesn't hurt to take a look at the charts, trends etc when using seasonal--monthly seasonal were all in F Fund and were spared the dip in 2015; the leading daily mix had big gain in 2015, the 17th trading day was the 25th after the drop. In 2013 & 2016 the same mix had a loss for the month. Ideally you want to make sure you make your move when the fund you are moving into is at or near the bottom or low point. But you are currently in the market so it depends on what your outlook is for each of the funds, how much you have in each and how many IFTs you have remaining. Many folks say you don't lose anything until you sell at a loss. One of the most interesting trades I saw with Brexit was someone that went 100% from S Fund to I Fund the day after when everything tanked. Only you can decide what is right for your situation.

Any seasonal strategy should increase your chances of being in the right fund at the right time but there are no guarantees. A lot depends on your risk tolerance and your trust in whatever system you decide to follow. Good luck in whatever you decide to do.

cashworth
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Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by cashworth »

Well said evilanne.
I just had this discussion with a coworker. I love the seasonal information (both monthly and daily), but find it hard to follow it without considering technicals and trends.
Will you seasonal folks go 100% equities even when things are trending negative? Will you put your nest egg into a fund that's just crossed under its 200 day moving average?
I am by no way saying right or wrong, and I definitely agree that the seasonal data sets are about the coolest TSP info I've found. Just thinking out loud.

Timber82
Posts: 166
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 2:39 pm

Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by Timber82 »

cashworth wrote:Well said evilanne.
I just had this discussion with a coworker. I love the seasonal information (both monthly and daily), but find it hard to follow it without considering technicals and trends.
Will you seasonal folks go 100% equities even when things are trending negative? Will you put your nest egg into a fund that's just crossed under its 200 day moving average?
I am by no way saying right or wrong, and I definitely agree that the seasonal data sets are about the coolest TSP info I've found. Just thinking out loud.


While opportunities have not presented itself since I have been in the TSP, in my personal account, once a holding crosses under the 200day MA I actually use that as a bullish signal and begin closely monitoring that holding and will often set a trailing buy order (similar to trailing stop but for buying) and slowly work some of my money into that holding. The idea here being that It will usually bounce back, may take some time, but it will. It should be noted I would never advocate this idea with individual stocks, I only deal with indexes personally. I tried to play the individual game and did awful every time (except a huge gain on JCP a few years back that actually paid for my whole wedding), of course I kept looking to get rich quick, I am now making a decent wage and live within/below my means which enables me to Dollar cost average my way to wealth but it will take a long time! Sure I get that FOMO (Fear of Missing out) when I hear headlines like "Children's Place surges 18% after fantastic earnings beat" but with my luck were I already in PLCE, lol it would of tanked.

Of course all of this is me talking to you while I am sitting pretty at 10.5% PIP, if you talk to me while I am at -10% or more PIP (hopefully never) the tune I am singing may be a bit different.

GoRedSox
Posts: 38
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:32 pm

Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by GoRedSox »

I am reluctant to follow the daily and move on the 23rd with all of the turnover at the WH, waning trust in POTUS ability to deliver, and escalated tensions around the world.

cashworth
Posts: 122
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:18 am

Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by cashworth »

Good point Timber82.
A share price under the 200 day MA would most likely be a bargain purchase as long as you have time on your side.
But, daily seasonals aren't long term, they will be back in the F in a few weeks.
Only time will tell!!

Timber82
Posts: 166
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 2:39 pm

Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by Timber82 »

yes they are not long term B+H, the way I envision myself doing this is to keep allocating whatever % of my portfolio is following the seasonal then keep the other part allocated to the "Bargain".

Ex. Jan 1st I am in Fund X per seasonal and Fund Y crosses under the 200MA, I begin monitoring Y more heavily perhaps wait for another slide a 1 or 2% before making a move. Now remember I would ease into the position, maybe 10-15% at a time and by Feb 31st I am sitting at 40Y 60X. March 1 seasonal shifts to 100% Z fund, so my IFT would be 40Y 60Z. Make sense?

Again since this opportunity ahs not yet presented itself I have not really figured how I would do it in the TSP or if I would at all, but in my personal account after I had a profit of some percentage I would slowly exit the position and return it to cash.

adm_m
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:54 am

Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by adm_m »

How's everyone feeling today on the S Fund move?
Daily Strategy #10716

Travis1984
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:24 pm

Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by Travis1984 »

adm_m wrote:How's everyone feeling today on the S Fund move?


You're a day early!
"Fear of loss is the path to the Dark Side."

Yoda

adm_m
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:54 am

Re: Tryin' to understand 7653 Seasonal strategy

Post by adm_m »

Travis1984 wrote:
adm_m wrote:How's everyone feeling today on the S Fund move?


You're a day early!



I mean tomorrow's move! Sorry, I miss worded that.
Daily Strategy #10716

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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