Strength and Mood

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD Friday September 22, 2017

All funds moved up in “Strength”, however the F fund moved up the most +35, (I +22, S +12, C +3).
How did that happen, with the I fund’s better gains of the day? Well the I fund had a bad day on Thursday (-0.61%), and the “Strength” calculations are derived from ongoing moving averages.

The C funds “Mood” does not look very bullish to me.

I have to say, the market seems to be taking its cue from mjedlin66’s Daily Seasonal Strategy. And when Matt makes an IFT, the market follows.
My question, is the Dog (Market) wagging the Tail (DSS), or is the Tail (DSS) wagging the Dog (Market)?

[evilanne]

S Fund definitely was stronger than C Fund last week.

[klee]

When C and Mood lines aren't close together, does that mean C will be bearish or going sideways?

[Tomanyiron]

When C and Mood lines aren't close together, does that mean C will be bearish or going sideways?

With the little bit of history with this indicator, right now I am only looking for divergences. Mood line making continued lower lows and lower highs at the same time that the C fund is moving sideways or up.
You can see three examples of that on the chart and what was the result.

1- Early to mid May, ended with that big drop on May 17.
2- Mid to late June another negative divergence formed and 6/27 & 6/29 were big lost days.
3- Last of July into August the Mood line predicted the weakness on 8/10 - 8/18. (This is the pattern that looks the most like what is happening now.)

So a very young and untested system predicts C fund (S&P 500) weakness soon.

[klee]

I do see a resemblance between the early part of Aug and present. So chances are there could soon be a big drop and if so, it won't stay down long so it seems.

[Tomanyiron]

... So chances are there could soon be a big drop and if so, it won't stay down long so it seems.

I hope you are not using this chart only for the last part of that statement? Because the system doesn't know yet, how deep the Mood line will drop, and for how long.

But I will say this, if there starts to be multiple higher highs and higher lows, then I would feel better about the two US stock funds.

Thanks for your interest, Can’t say 100% that this isn't some sort of merry chase I'm led on. But I continue to believe the endeavor has value.

[klee]

Oh no, I'm not, just my opinion the way C fund has been doing lately. I don't think there's a system out there that will really tell us what the market will do or we would all be rich. Your mood chart is quite intriguing. Thank you very much for your helpful and detailed explanation.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD Monday September 25, 2017

Observe the top of the Strength bars and the down-trend in the stock funds after Monday the 18th. The F fund didn't take advantage of stock weakness until two days later.
Mood made a sizeable gap down.

[crondanet5]

Tommie when are you going to IFT to S Fund so I can go to C Fund?

[Tomanyiron]

Tommie when are you going to IFT to S Fund so I can go to C Fund?

Good hearing from you, were did you go Mexico City? You had us all worried for a while.

As for an IFT to S, can’t say, maybe in a month. Can you wait that long?

[crondanet5]

I'm thinking a brief hiatus to C Fund to catch the return rise in Apple might work. Your S Fund IFT would have solidified it. So nervously treading forward in the S I am.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD Tuesday September 26, 2017

If anything shined, it was small caps. I fund hurting, F and C looking ambiguous.

[ron.logan]

I don't get it. How did the International fund shine when the I fund was down -.73 yesterday? The I fund has been down 2 days in a row but you show the I fund strength has increased. I guess I don't know how to read the chart. Is your chart predicting the I fund will go up today?

[evilanne]

Ron,

I think you are looking at the S Fund

[Tomanyiron]

I don't get it. How did the International fund shine when the I fund was down -.73 yesterday? The I fund has been down 2 days in a row but you show the I fund strength has increased. I guess I don't know how to read the chart. Is your chart predicting the I fund will go up today?

You are very right Ron. And I guess I don't know how to input correct +/- signs in the chart sometimes. I was in a rush this morning, and that is what happens, when not double checking. I fixed it, and sent you points.

Oh and PS, these charts are for additional info only, that may or may not help your decisions. Don't get too caught-up in the day-to-day.