Safe as Kittens in the F

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

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fordest
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:48 pm

Re: Safe as Kittens in the F

Post by fordest »

Very relieved as well. And btw you can make your move now. I am heading over to do it as we speak.
100% in the daily system since August 2, 2017.
Following strategy (current pick) #88676. 2020 real life has been following #110838

mmmmmbeer
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 11:00 am

Re: Safe as Kittens in the F

Post by mmmmmbeer »

fordest wrote:Very relieved as well. And btw you can make your move now. I am heading over to do it as we speak.

Yup... did awhile ago.
Those who 'abjure' violence can do so only because others are committing violence on their behalf.

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evilanne
Posts: 2067
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: Safe as Kittens in the F

Post by evilanne »

Lots of moves to the I fund for tomorrow. I wonder how many dollars that equates to :?:

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TopComm
Posts: 78
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2010 7:02 pm

Re: Safe as Kittens in the F

Post by TopComm »

This sounds like a fun math question:
evilanne wrote:Lots of moves to the I fund for tomorrow. I wonder how many dollars that equates to :?:
Federal News Radio published an average balance chart in May 2016.

59% had less than $50,000
30% had $50,000-$249,000
8% had $250,000 - $499,000
2% had $500,000 - $749,000


If we take the weighted averages of the middle of each range and multiply it by the number I fund trades 81% of 90 trades (as of this writing): 72.9 trades into the I fund.
59% of 72.9 = 43 trades @ $25,000 average for $1,075,000
30% of 72.9 = 21.87 trades @ $150,000 average for $3,280,500
8% of 72.9 = 6.39 trades @ $374,000 average for $2,390,608
2% of 72.9 = 1.458 trades @ $624,000 average for $949,792
---
Assuming this normal distribution: $7,695,900

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Aitrus
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Re: Safe as Kittens in the F

Post by Aitrus »

Very cool, TopComm! I've got another one for you, inspired by a comment in another thread:

The Treasury Secretary stopped all investment in the G Fund on 12 Dec 17, so those with G Fund balances are instead receiving IOUs. How much longer could the government go before breaching the debt limit if there was no money at all invested in the G Fund by TSP members (and therefore no need to invest by the Treasury)?
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Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
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TopComm
Posts: 78
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2010 7:02 pm

Re: Safe as Kittens in the F

Post by TopComm »

Aitrus wrote:Very cool, TopComm! I've got another one for you, inspired by a comment in another thread:

The Treasury Secretary stopped all investment in the G Fund on 12 Dec 17, so those with G Fund balances are instead receiving IOUs. How much longer could the government go before breaching the debt limit if there was no money at all invested in the G Fund by TSP members (and therefore no need to invest by the Treasury)?
That is an awesome question! The bottom line up front is that the US Government would have a big problem on its hands.

As of November 30, 2017, there was $223 Billion in the G Fund. The current debt limit is $20.493 trillion.
The debt as of December 13, 2017 was $20.487 trillion. Basically we are $6 Billion away from the debt ceiling.
In the extraordinary measures letter referenced above, the treasury is creating about $57.7 billion in headroom.

If TSP members completely moved out of the G fund, that would create a net $160 Billion immediate demand for payment (exceeding the limit). Hence - BIG PROBLEM!

cashworth
Posts: 122
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:18 am

Re: Safe as Kittens in the F

Post by cashworth »

TopComm wrote:
Aitrus wrote:Very cool, TopComm! I've got another one for you, inspired by a comment in another thread:

The Treasury Secretary stopped all investment in the G Fund on 12 Dec 17, so those with G Fund balances are instead receiving IOUs. How much longer could the government go before breaching the debt limit if there was no money at all invested in the G Fund by TSP members (and therefore no need to invest by the Treasury)?
That is an awesome question! The bottom line up front is that the US Government would have a big problem on its hands.

As of November 30, 2017, there was $223 Billion in the G Fund. The current debt limit is $20.493 trillion.
The debt as of December 13, 2017 was $20.487 trillion. Basically we are $6 Billion away from the debt ceiling.
In the extraordinary measures letter referenced above, the treasury is creating about $57.7 billion in headroom.

If TSP members completely moved out of the G fund, that would create a net $160 Billion immediate demand for payment (exceeding the limit). Hence - BIG PROBLEM!
This makes my stomach turn a little...

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Aitrus
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Safe as Kittens in the F

Post by Aitrus »

Thanks, TopComm! That's some great research.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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