2018 Strength and Market Pull

[Octjan2]

Thanks Tomany. Sure seems quiet on the boards.

It seems to get quiet around here when the market struggles to find direction. When things are going well, you see threads like "S Fund on Fire!" but for now, many are scratching their heads trying to figure out what's going on. Most daily strategies aren't living up to past average performance. Even strategy 32187 with a SD of 0.72 and a CAGR of 28.2 is at a loss of -3.75 for the year as of COB 3/16. I think we have a president that can say/do something that can change the market day-to-day.

https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=34356&years=04-18
I have loosely been following 17842 with all the moves at the wrong time. Out of curiosity I created a Strat (above) that made all the opposite moves of 17842 so far this year. It is about a 15% swing to the positive. 17842 is down about 5% and this one is up over 10%. About $45,000 swing if you have 300k in the account.

[evilanne]

So it is "opposite year" for TSPCalc! or is it like following Crondanet5 rather than Tomanyiron?

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD Friday March 16, 2018

Chart 1: Can’t say for sure yet, but looks like a top in Strength came last week.
Chart 2: Stock Pull is not doing much. And with having this many near flat days, makes a continued up-trend dubious.

[Tomanyiron]

So it is "opposite year" for TSPCalc! or is it like following Crondanet5 rather than Tomanyiron?

I’m marching to my own drummer now. And Cron is having hard time thinking straight with all the marching and drumming going on.

[Chulke]

Thanks Tomany. Sure seems quiet on the boards.

It seems to get quiet around here when the market struggles to find direction. When things are going well, you see threads like "S Fund on Fire!" but for now, many are scratching their heads trying to figure out what's going on. Most daily strategies aren't living up to past average performance. Even strategy 32187 with a SD of 0.72 and a CAGR of 28.2 is at a loss of -3.75 for the year as of COB 3/16. I think we have a president that can say/do something that can change the market day-to-day.

https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=34356&years=04-18
I have loosely been following 17842 with all the moves at the wrong time. Out of curiosity I created a Strat (above) that made all the opposite moves of 17842 so far this year. It is about a 15% swing to the positive. 17842 is down about 5% and this one is up over 10%. About $45,000 swing if you have 300k in the account.

This strategy is interesting...10% for this year so far?! I will have to keep my eye on this one...the question is how to choose a strategy with so many out there? I mean, picking a winner for a given year...the odds are astronomical I'm sure...but I will be sure to keep my eyes on this one since this year has been a disaster for me so far...


Cheers!

[crondanet5]

Tommie! I'm surprised at you. You make an IFT, 3 days later so do I. Works for me. Just wish you had moved 3 days earlier.

[Tomanyiron]

Tommie! I'm surprised at you. You make an IFT, 3 days later so do I. Works for me. Just wish you had moved 3 days earlier.

3 Days from now I will tell you why I did that.

[crondanet5]

Looks like your IFT is working today. So is mine.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD Monday March 19, 2018

Chart 1: Strength is down for the stock funds, bonds are flat for now.
Chart 2: Stock Pull has turned down. That along with the previous 3 flat days, makes me think the trend will be down for a while. Question is, will the bond fund seize the advantage or continue to F-iddle around?

[Octjan2]

I’d forget the F fund for now. If you are looking to avoid stocks just stick with G this year. Not saying the F fund won’t come back a little this year but the risk/gain isn’t worth it right now.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD Tuesday March 20, 2018

Chart 1: Strength was up some for US stocks, Bonds and I fund down.
Chart 2: Stock Pull was down another day, even with the bump in S fund price.

[evilanne]

G-F-G....Fed Play?

[Tomanyiron]

G-F-G....Fed Play?

Yes I'm making too many wrong mistakes lately. First of the year I was making more right mistakes.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD Wednesday March 21, 2018

Chart 1: A mixed bag of Strength in Wednesday’s final results.
Chart 2: The Pull factor is not too enthusiastic about stocks now. Down another day contradicting S fund price.

[bamablue]

The Thursday picture; Volatility is the name, downward is the game...

Tech stocks are taking a beating with Facebook leading the decline (down 8.5% since Monday). Ouch.

Stocks are getting a beatdown because of the tariff's that will be announced later today. This is a new round of tariff's concerning China and theft(s) of intellectual property. This should have already been baked in... maybe the interest rate hike has some investors spooked and selling for a buy-back in April?

1:15pm ET update: Geronimo!