Oh, to be #41041!

[Sad Al]

I am fascinated by the possibilities and creative number crunching you can do with the TSPCALC.COM website. Note that this is an unsolicited endorsement: if you join by May 20 you get a 25% discount for the first year ($15 instead of $20).

If you focus solely on 2018 and sort, you can see that the top 100 strategies are up by 17%+ for the year, with the highest performance recorded by strategy #41041, at 40% gains for the year! Bravo! Of course, that is only a fantasy, and no one here at TSPCENTER.COM is actually following that strategy, but the possibility is mind blowing. I haven't fully vetted any of those 100 leaders for this year, and it could be that their past performance really sucked. It also could be that their performance over the next seven months will negate those gains.

[fordest]

#41041 was actually created for this thread:

http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.p ... 730#p71730

Somebody is following that Strategy. His name is Mr. Perfect. But he won't be following it for long. He will continue to make new strategies as time goes on. However, if you do keep an eye on that strategy, it may do well if things get back on track or it may flop if things continue as they are for the most popular daily strategies..... because the remainder of the year beyond the end of May follows #7980.

[Sad Al]

Mr. Perfect is a fascinating character! I remember reading about him, but I neglected to remember his strategy is #41041. That explains a lot! That leaves 99 other strategies that are not Mr. Perfect (but could be related by blood LOL), that are outperforming all TSP Center users. That's pretty impressive!

[fordest]

Yes I would say that at least a few of them are related to Mr. Perfect. (i.e. past iterations.) You can scroll through the thread to figure out which ones if you really wanted.

It's all a lot of fun... So is playing with TSPCalc... now if only I could get my strategy to play along correctly.

[Chindsey]

Check out # 41103. I created it a few days ago. High mean, relatively low standard deviation, minimal exposure to stocks, only 10 negative months since the beginning of 2004, and a strong year-to-date performance. I'm not yet sure if/when I'll have the guts to jump in and follow it.

[fordest]

Looks like a great strategy for somebody with low risk tolerance. Very nice.

[mjedlin66]

Here's a quick sample of attempting to find Mr. Perfect for 2017 using the Seasonal Builder.

This tool doesn't currently include 2018 data. Not sure when that will be added.

[fordest]

looks fascinating. Can't wait to try it out.

[nrialto]

Chindsey,

Looking at some of the numbers, I think I may start to follow # 41103. For example, I compared my current strategy 17842 with 41103 from 2010 to current. 41103 only had 3 negative months in the last 8 years; 17842, on the hand had 20.

I may not gain as much as some more risky strategies, but only having exposure to stocks 34% of the time will (hopefully) keep my hair from falling out from worry!

Thanks for putting this strategy together.

[Chindsey]

nrialto,

You’re very welcome. I've decided to follow the strategy, which calls for a move to the S fund before 12:00 p.m. EST tomorrow. The only decision I have left to make is whether to move 100% of the balance or some smaller percentage (e.g., 70% or 75%).

[nrialto]

Just curious; does anyone know if any new strategies have been created on tspcalc since the last post that are "better" than #41103? (Less negative months, higher returns, etc.)

[Chindsey]

Yes. I’ve created a number of them. My current favorites are # 43165 (with F) and # 43184 (no F).

[nrialto]

Chindsey, #43167 looks good! Thank you!