Seasonal Musings 2018

[OkieTSPer]

Thanks Aitrus.

[Aitrus]

Doh! It's been a busy two weeks. While I remembered to get my Upcoming Month post updated and made an IFT in my real world account accordingly, I forgot to update my Fantasy account. It's fixed now, but it skews my personal returns compared to the Strategy I actually follow.

[Aitrus]

Seasonal Strategy Results for September 2018

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.24%, 1.89% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Sep Total CAGR = 0.40%
Sep 20 year CAGR = 0.29%
Sep 10 year CAGR = 0.18%
Sep 5 year CAGR = 0.18%

This was a very good Sep for the G Fund. The last time September had a return this good was 2009. 2017’s return was 0.17%. Of note: The first 9 months of 2018 have all been 0.2% or better. The last time that happened was 2008. The last full year of 0.20% or better returns was 2008.

F Fund: -0.62%, -1.47% YTD
Sep Total CAGR = 0.66%, PNR 77%
Sep 20 year CAGR = 0.44%, PNR 70%
Sep 10 year CAGR = 0.21%, PNR 60%
Sep 5 year CAGR = -0.20%, PNR 20%

The F Fund has now had three negative Septembers in a row, something that has never happened. There have been a total of 7 negative September returns, 4 of which have occurred in the last 5 years. 2017’s return was -0.48%.

C Fund: 0.57%, 10.54% YTD
Sep Total CAGR = -0.17%, PNR 55%
Sep 20 year CAGR = -1.05%, PNR 55%
Sep 10 year CAGR = 0.93%, PNR 70%
Sep 5 year CAGR = -0.26%, PNR 60%

The C Fund had a minor positive return this September. The month still remains a poor choice, and certainly the bottom 3 months of the year for this Fund. 2017’s return was 2.06%.

S Fund: -1.76%, 10.85% YTD
Sep Total CAGR = -0.06%, PNR 61%
Sep 20 year CAGR = -1.12%, PNR 50%
Sep 10 year CAGR = 0.66%, PNR 60%
Sep 5 year CAGR = -1.36%, PNR 40%

This month was a little worse than expected for the S Fund. This month is already the worst performing of the year, and this result was no surprise. 2017’s return was 4.26%.

I Fund: 0.91%, -1.06% YTD
Sep Total CAGR = -0.66%, PNR 61%
Sep 20 year CAGR = -0.88%, PNR 70%
Sep 10 year CAGR = 0.76%, PNR 70%
Sep 5 year CAGR = -0.88%, PNR 60%

There was a positive result for the I Fund this month. The I Fund has so-so PNRs in September, but those returns aren’t enough to make up for the down years. 2017’s return was -2.52%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: F Fund in Sep (0.62%), -1.23% YTD, PIP 4.67%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: F Fund in Sep (0.62%), -0.85% YTD, PIP 5.06%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Sep (-0.62%), -0.77% YTD, PIP 2.83%
tmj100’s Mix: F Fund in Sep (-0.62%), 3.82% YTD, PIP 9.84%
Boltman's Mix: F Fund in Sep (-0.62%), 6.14% YTD, PIP 13.55%
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in Sep (0.24%), 0.83% YTD, PIP 7.53%
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Sep (0.24%), 2.13% YTD

All of the normally tracked Mixes were in the F Fund this month, so all had an equal amount of loss. Between Aug and Sep, everybody came out about even in terms of earnings or losses. Although we hoped for better, it’s not a bad result given the historical results for stocks at this time of year. Those in the G Fund came out ahead, securing 0.5% worth of returns due to the G Fund’s tendency to have halfway decent returns these days.

[Aitrus]

For November 2018
Last chance to move: Wednesday, 31 October before noon EST
For this coming November, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.38%
Last 20 years: 0.28%
Last 10 years: 0.19%
Last 5 years: 0.17%

November is a pretty bad month for the G Fund arguably the second worst of the year. The 2017 return was 0.19%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.36%, PNR 60%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.27%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.18%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.47%, PNR 20%

November is a pretty bad month for the F Fund, second worst of the year.

The best years were 2008 (3.30%), 1990 (2.15%) and 2007 (1.88%). The worst years were 2016 (-2.35%), 2001 (-1.37%) and 1988 (-1.09%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.61%, PNR 73%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.53%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.15%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.56%, PNR 100%

The C Fund does well in November. Not the best of the year, but it’s solidly one of the top 4 months for this Fund. The last negative year was 2011 with -0.21%. Since 1995 there have been four negative years: 2000, 2007, 2008 and 2011. Good odds, I’d say.

The best years were 2001 (7.62%), 1996 (7.54%) and 1990 (6.36%). The worst years were 2000 (-7.87%), 2008 (-7.18%) and 2007 (-4.20%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.46%, PNR 73%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.71%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.20%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 3.26%, PNR 100%

Like the C Fund, the S Fund does very well in November. And, like the C Fund, it has had only 4 negative years since 1995, however, those negatives were all worse.

The best years were 1999 (8.44%), 2016 (7.95%) and 2001 (7.54%). The worst years were 2000 (-17.03%), 2008 (-11.13%) and 2007 (-5.65%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.11%, PNR 60%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.62%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.94%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.11%, PNR 60%

The I Fund does badly in November. Unlike the other stock Funds, the I Fund just doesn’t sustain the upswing it often experiences during October.

The best years were 2004 (6.16%), 1988 (5.85%), and 1998 (5.00%). The worst years were 1993 (-8.86%), 2008 (-6.72%), and 1990 (-6.05%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for November 2018.

Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Remain in the C Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix Remain in the C Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the S Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the S Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

From here on out, the Mixes take a different approach to the end of the year. It’s these last three months that often determine who will win the annual race. Here is what the Mixes all do for October, November and December:

Jahby: C/S
gclapper: C/S
TSPCenter: C/S
tmj100: S/S
Boltman: S/I
Sell in May: C/C
G all Year: G/S

[OkieTSPer]

Thanks Aitrus

[Aitrus]

Seasonal Strategy Results for October 2018

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.26%, 2.38% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Oct Total CAGR = 0.40%
Oct 20 year CAGR = 0.29%
Oct 10 year CAGR = 0.19%
Oct 5 year CAGR = 0.19%

This was a very good Oct for the G Fund. The last time October had a return this good was 2009. 2017’s return was 0.19%. Of note: The first 10 months of 2018 have all been 0.2% or better. The last time that happened was 2008. The last full year of 0.20% or better returns was 2008.

F Fund: -0.78%, -2.26% YTD
Oct Total CAGR = 0.40%, PNR 71%
Oct 20 year CAGR = 0.13%, PNR 70%
Oct 10 year CAGR = 0.16%, PNR 80%
Oct 5 year CAGR = -0.10%, PNR 60%

This month was a setback for the F Fund, and was the fourth worst return since 1988. 2017’s return was 0.07%.

C Fund: -6.84%, 2.98% YTD
Oct Total CAGR = 1.26%, PNR 65%
Oct 20 year CAGR = 1.33%, PNR 65%
Oct 10 year CAGR = 1.89%, PNR 60%
Oct 5 year CAGR = 0.79%, PNR 60%

This was a very, very bad month for the C Fund. This month is the second worst on record, and is only overshadowed by the 2008 return of -16.83%. Despite all that, the CAGRs remain strong, with so-so PNRs. 2017’s return was 2.33%.

S Fund: -10.06%, -0.30% YTD
Oct Total CAGR = 0.05%, PNR 58%
Oct 20 year CAGR = 0.28%, PNR 65%
Oct 10 year CAGR = 0.99%, PNR 60%
Oct 5 year CAGR = -0.73%, PNR 60%

The S Fund gave back all of its 2018 gains in this past month. This was the second worst return for the S Fund in its history. 2017’s return was 1.41%.

I Fund: -7.94%, -8.92% YTD
Oct Total CAGR = 0.98%, PNR 61%
Oct 20 year CAGR = 0.63%, PNR 60%
Oct 10 year CAGR = 1.18%, PNR 60%
Oct 5 year CAGR = -0.52%, PNR 40%

Like the other stock Funds, the I Fund took a massive hit this month. And, like the others, this was the second worst return for this Fund since 1988. 2017’s return was -1.54%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in Oct (-6.84%), -7.98% YTD, PIP -4.71%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: C Fund in Oct (-6.84%), -7.63% YTD, PIP -4.35%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Oct (-0.78%), -1.54% YTD, PIP 1.96%
tmj100’s Mix: C Fund in Oct (-6.84%), -3.28% YTD, PIP -0.01%
Boltman's Mix: C Fund in Oct (-6.84%), -1.12% YTD, PIP 3.37%
Sell in May and Go Away: C Fund in Oct (-6.84%), -6.07% YTD, PIP -2.11%
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Oct (0.26%), 2.40% YTD

Everybody not in G took a hit this month, giving back all of the gains made thus far this year, or digging the hole deeper. The only Mix still in the positive is G All Year, which is a good example of the method behind the Mix as it strives to protect funds all year – we’ll just have to wait and see how it does in December. The only Funds in the positive are the G Fund and the C Fund

[Tomanyiron]

Seasonal Strategy Results for October 2018

... The only Funds in the positive are the G Fund and the C Fund

Aitrus what's your thoughts (or research if you have done any) on the C's resiliency this year? Is it because of, movement toward the defensive sector, things like consumer staples, utilities and healthcare? Because the sector rotation folks say, that's not encouraging signs.

A little bit non-seasonal questing, and I apologize. But some musing I'm having.

[Aitrus]

I think it has to do with the economy, partly due to Pres Trump's loosening of restrictions on businesses, and partly due to momentum from last year. Once businesses build up a head of steam they can really get rolling. The better companies tend to weather the storms that come along, and that's why they're at the top of the game and influence the S&P so much. In addition, tech was doing pretty well earlier this year, but has been underperforming for a few weeks in opposition to it's normal seasonal trends.

The weakness in techs, as well as all the shenanigans and uncertainty surrounding the election, contributed to the market drop last month. Several things are in the market's favor now, I think. The election is over, the market got the consolidation and breather it needed from a long run-up over the last couple of years, and the holiday shopping season is about to begin. I think the market will have a good run of gains ahead of it for a while.

All in all, it feels like the last few months have been like that floaty feeling you get when you go over the crest of a roller coaster, and the last couple of weeks in October have been when you're rushing toward the bottom and the G-forces really kick in. So far in November, the C and S Funds have made up a lot of ground on the next upward hill of the coaster ride.

[Aitrus]

For December 2018
Last chance to move: Friday, 30 November before noon EST
For this coming December, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.41%
Last 20 years: 0.31%
Last 10 years: 0.19%
Last 5 years: 0.19%

December is a decent month for the G Fund. Not stellar, but not the worst either. Sort of upper middle-ish territory. The 2017 return was 0.19%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.56%, PNR 70%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.38%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.19%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.00%, PNR 60%

December is a so-so month for the F Fund. Lower middle-ish territory.

The best years were 2008 (3.73%), 1991 (2.96%) and 2002 (2.08%). The worst years were 2009 (-1.55%), 2010 (-1.05%) and 1996 (-0.93%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.82%, PNR 83%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.56%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.53%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.75%, PNR 600%

The C Fund does very well in December, arguably the best month of the year.

The best years were 1991 (11.41%), 2010 (6.68%) and 1999 (5.90%). The worst years were 2002 (-5.85%), 1996 (-1.97%) and 2015 (-1.57%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 2.91%, PNR 87%
Last 20 years: CAGR 2.89%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.31%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.43%, PNR 800%

It’s no secret that I consider the S Fund in December to be the best bet all year. The PNRs are absolutely phenomenal, and the CAGRs are solid. The Santa Rally helps all the Stock Funds, but it pulls the S Fund upward the most.

The best years were 1999 (13.78%), 1991 (9.90%) and 1998 (8.46%). The worst years were 2002 (-4.32%), 2015 (-3.91%) and 2007 (-0.40%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 2.35%, PNR 80%
Last 20 years: CAGR 2.46%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.89%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.04%, PNR 60%

December is the second best month of the year for the I Fund.

The best years were 1999 (8.88%), 2010 (8.12%), and 2003 (7.68%). The worst years were 2014 (-4.13%), 2002 (-3.27%), and 2007 (-2.25%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for December 2018.

Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix Move to the S Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the S Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Remain in the S Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the I Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Move to the S Fund.

This final stretch sees most of the Mixes in the S Fund. Which one will come out on top, and will any of them beat the Funds themselves? One thing is for sure, we need a good Santa Rally to get them all into positive territory for the year.

[Aitrus]

Seasonal Strategy Results for November 2018

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.26%, 2.66% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Nov Total CAGR = 0.38%
Nov 20 year CAGR = 0.28%
Nov 10 year CAGR = 0.18%
Nov 5 year CAGR = 0.19%

This was a very good Oct for the G Fund. The last time October had a return this good was 2009. 2017’s return was 0.19%. Of note: The first 11 months of 2018 have all been 0.2% or better. The last time that happened was 2008. The last full year of 0.20% or better returns was 2008.

F Fund: 0.62%, -1.63% YTD
Nov Total CAGR = 0.36%, PNR 61%
Nov 20 year CAGR = 0.27%, PNR 55%
Nov 10 year CAGR = -0.08%, PNR 50%
Nov 5 year CAGR = -0.27%, PNR 40%

This month was good return for the F Fund. This month’s return is average when compared to longer historical results, but a lot higher when compared to shorter timescales. 2017’s return was -0.11%.

C Fund: 2.04%, 5.08% YTD
Nov Total CAGR = 1.63%, PNR 74%
Nov 20 year CAGR = 1.33%, PNR 80%
Nov 10 year CAGR = 2.11%, PNR 90%
Nov 5 year CAGR = 2.36%, PNR 100%

This was a very good month for the C Fund. October has seen a straight run of positive returns since 2012, and remains a solid month for the C Fund. 2017’s return was 3.07%.

S Fund: 1.92%, 1.61% YTD
Nov Total CAGR = 1.47%, PNR 74%
Nov 20 year CAGR = 1.50%, PNR 80%
Nov 10 year CAGR = 2.60%, PNR 90%
Nov 5 year CAGR = 3.14%, PNR 100%

Like the C Fund, this was a solid month for the S Fund. 2017’s return was 2.90%.

I Fund: -0.13%, -9.03% YTD
Nov Total CAGR = 0.10%, PNR 58%
Nov 20 year CAGR = 0.37%, PNR 60%
Nov 10 year CAGR = -0.26%, PNR 50%
Nov 5 year CAGR = -0.29%, PNR 60%

Contrary to the other stuck Funds, the I Fund had a negative month to add to its dismal annual return thus far. 2017’s return was 1.06%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in Nov (2.04%), -6.11% YTD, PIP -5.66%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: C Fund in Nov (2.04%), -5.75% YTD, PIP -5.31%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: C Fund in Nov (2.04%), 0.46% YTD, PIP 0.94%
tmj100’s Mix: S Fund in Nov (1.92%), -1.42% YTD, PIP -0.96%
Boltman's Mix: S Fund in Nov (1.92%), 0.78% YTD, PIP 2.39%
Sell in May and Go Away: C Fund in Nov (2.04%), -4.15% YTD, PIP -3.09%
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Nov (0.26%), 2.66% YTD

Everybody had good gains this month, enough to pull a couple of the Mixes into positive territory. A good December is needed if all the Mixes are to end up in the black.

[OkieTSPer]

Thanks Aitrus.

[Aitrus]

For January 2019
Last chance to move: Monday, 31 December before noon EST
For this coming January, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.41%
Last 20 years: 0.30%
Last 10 years: 0.20%
Last 5 years: 0.20%

January is an ok month for the G Fund. Not stellar, but not the worst either. The 2018 return was 0.20%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.60%, PNR 77%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.57%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.54%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.85%, PNR 80%

January is a pretty good month month for the F Fund. Solid PNRs and decent CAGRs.

The best years were 2015 (2.13%), 1995 (1.98%) and 1993 (1.88%). The worst years were 1990 (-1.38%), 1992 (-1.35%) and 2018 (-1.14%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.34%, PNR 58%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.46%, PNR 50%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.48%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.83%, PNR 40%

The C Fund does poorly in January. It’s the fourth worst month of the year for this index.

The best years were 1989 (7.14%), 1997 (6.22%) and 2018 (5.72%). The worst years were 2009 (-8.41%), 1990 (-6.59%) and 2008 (-5.98%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.64%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.06%, PNR 50%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.32%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR -1.49%, PNR 40%

The S Fund used to do decently well in January, but no longer. Now it’s a 50/50 kind of month, and that’s not good enough for inclusion into most of the Mixes.

The best years were 2012 (7.59%), 2013 (6.96%) and 2006 (6.70%). The worst years were 2016 (-8.72%), 1990 (-8.53%) and 2009 (-8.19%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.69%, PNR 48%
Last 20 years: CAGR -1.30%, PNR 45%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.70%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.20%, PNR 60%

This is an absolutely atrocious month for the I Fund. It’s not the worst month of the year – the competition for that distinction is pretty fierce – but it’s still something you wouldn’t want to touch with a 10-foot pole.

The best years were 1994 (8.33%), 2006 (6.14%), and 2012 (5.36%). The worst years were 2009 (-11.93%), 2008 (-8.52%), and 2000 (-6.44%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for January 2019.

Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix Move to the F Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Move to the G Fund.

This month starts off a new year with everybody at 0.00%. Who will weather the storms that the experts are forecasting for 2019? Which Mix will outperform the market the most – or will any of them manage to do it at all?

[OkieTSPer]

Thanks Aitrus.

[Aitrus]

Seasonal Strategy Results for December 2018 and End-Of-Year Round-Up

This entry will wrap up the results for 2018, including giving updated historical figures for various timeframes as they apply to the Fund or Mix in question. Please note that my figures may differ slightly (0.03% or less) from the TSP’s announced figures due to tracking error.

Note: A "good" month for F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.26%, 2.93% for the year, PNR remains 100%
Dec Since 1988: CAGR = 0.40%
Dec Last 20 years: CAGR = 0.30%
Dec Last 10 years: CAGR = 0.19%
Dec Last 5 years: CAGR = 0.20%

Total annual G Fund returns:
Since 1988: CAGR 4.94%
Last 20 years: CAGR 3.61%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.31%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.29%
2016 return: 2.31%

2018 was the best year for the G Fund since 2009, when it returned 3.00%. Between 2009 and 2018, the next highest return was 2010 with 2.81%. The G Fund continues its multi-year comeback, although it has a long way to go to reach the best-for-Fund high of 8.89% back in 1990.

F Fund: 1.84%, 0.18% for the year.
Dec Since 1988: CAGR = 0.60%, PNR 71%
Dec Last 20 years: CAGR = 0.46%, PNR 60%
Dec Last 10 years: CAGR = 0.01%, PNR 50%
Dec Last 5 years: CAGR = 0.48%, PNR 80%

Total annual F Fund returns:
Since 1988: CAGR 6.04%, PNR 90%
Last 20 years: CAGR 4.70%, PNR 90%
Last 10 years: CAGR 3.73%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.88%, PNR 100%
2017 return: 3.81%

The F Fund’s Dec return was a very good one that was high above average, the 5th best on record since 1988. That impressive return brought the Fund into positive territory, but only within a single day’s worth of trading, so it’s safe to say that it was basically a break-even year for the F Fund. The Federal Reserve raised rates a number of times in 2017, yet the F Fund still had a 3.81% return for the year. With the Federal Reserve projected to raise rates twice in 2019, it’s still anybody’s guess as to what the F Fund will do in the future. Remember, it represents the bond market, which means that it reflects what buyers are willing to pay for bonds, not what the bonds themselves are actually worth according to interest rates. It’s a small, but critical, difference to keep in mind.

C Fund: -9.03%, -4.41% for the year.
Dec Since 1988: CAGR = 1.45%, PNR 81%
Dec Last 20 years: CAGR = 0.80%, PNR 75%
Dec Last 10 years: CAGR = 0.46%, PNR 70%
Dec Last 5 years: CAGR = -1.63%, PNR 40%

Total annual C Fund returns:
Since 1988: CAGR 10.01%, PNR 81%
Last 20 years: CAGR 5.63%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 13.17%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 8.53%, PNR 800%
2017 return: 21.82%

This was the single worst December for the C Fund ever. This dragged the Fund into negative territory for the year. It ends a 9-year run of positive annual returns that began in 2009. Still, a run that long is not wiped out by one bad year. And this bad return wasn’t that bad, not compared to the last bad year of -37.00% in 2008. The last time a run of good years was ended by a minor bad year was in 1990, which had a return of -3.14%. After that, the next negative return was in 2000, a full decade later. Here’s to hoping that the same holds true for the coming decade.

S Fund: -10.70%, -9.26% for the year.
Dec Since 1988: CAGR = 2.44%, PNR 84%
Dec Last 20 years: CAGR = 1.89%, PNR 75%
Dec Last 10 years: CAGR = 0.70%, PNR 70%
Dec Last 5 years: CAGR = -2.38%, PNR 60%

Total annual S Fund returns:
Since 1988: CAGR 10.80%, PNR 71%
Last 20 years: CAGR 7.81%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR 13.67%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: 5.48%, PNR 60%
2017 return: 18.23%

This was a very, very bad month for the S Fund, the single worst on record. We have to go back to Sep 2011 to find a return that was worse (-10.73%). This dragged the S Fund deeply into the red for the year, and marks the worst year since 2008. From Oct – Dec 2018, the S Fund lost -18.84%, which is deep into correction territory. That said, I still view December as a very solid month for the S Fund.

On a side note, we now have an interesting correlation for this Fund. 4 of the 5 negative years for the S Fund since 1988 have all contributed to a negative year. This means that while not all negative years have a negative December, almost all negative Decembers end up being in a negative year. I don’t think it’s a meaningful statistic that can be traded on because by the time December rolls around the year is pretty much done, but it’s still an interesting tidbit.

I Fund: -4.82%, -13.41% YTD
Dec Since 1988: CAGR = 2.11%, PNR 77%
Dec Last 20 years: CAGR = 2.01%, PNR 70%
Dec Last 10 years: CAGR = 0.64%, PNR 60%
Dec Last 5 years: CAGR = -1.24%, PNR 40%

Total annual I Fund returns:
Since 1988: CAGR 4.72%, PNR 68%
Last 20 years: CAGR 3.50%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 6.48%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.88%, PNR 40%
2016 return: 25.43%

This December the I Fund had its worst return on record. This contributed to an already dismal year to make 2018 the worst one for the I Fund since 2008. As bad as this year was, however, of the 10 negative years on record, this is only the 7th worst one for the I Fund – there are 3 smaller negatives and six worse ones.

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: S Fund in Dec (-10.70%), -16.15% for the year
gclapper’s M3 Mix: S Fund in Dec (-10.70%), -15.83% for the year
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: S Fund in Dec (-10.70%), -10.29% for the year
tmj100’s Mix: S Fund in Dec (-10.70%), -11.97% for the year
Boltman's Mix: I Fund in Dec (-4.82%), -4.08% for the year
Sell in May and Go Away: C Fund in Dec (-9.03%), -12.81% for the year
G all year, S in Dec Mix: S Fund in Dec (-10.70%), -8.32% for the year

Boltman’s Mix is the winner among the regularly tracked Mixes this year and tied for third overall, but the best performer is a Mix that I track behind the scenes. That Mix is Skiehawk’s EMA Mix, with a -2.13% return and is the best Mix for two years in a row. Another Mix, Jahbulon’s SMA Enter took second, and Rothwell’s Mix tied with Boltman’s.

Now here’s the updated stats of how each Mix has performed over the long run, as well as this year’s results for the spin-offs that I also track behind the scenes and don’t include in my regular posts.

Seasonal Mix End-of-Year Round-up

Jahbulon’s Basic Mix: -16.15% for 2018
Since 1988: CAGR 15.42%, PNR 90%
Last 20 years: CAGR 12.06%, PNR 90%
Last 10 years: CAGR 15.84%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 9.67%, PNR 80%

Spin-offs:
Jahbulon’s Old Basic Mix (uses the S Fund in Jan instead of F): -12.35%
Jahbulon’s SMA Mix (same monthly rotation as Old Basic Mix, but uses a technical indicator): -5.40%
Jahbulon’s SMA Enter Only Mix (same rotation as Old Basic Mix, but uses the indicator differently): -3.38%
Jahbulon’s Old Mix with F in July (does just what the title says): -15.46%
Aitrus’ Homebrew V1 (uses G Fund in Jun, Aug and Sep instead of F Fund): -11.65%

Gclapper’s M3 Mix: -15.83% for 2018
Since 1988: CAGR 16.59%, PNR 94%
Last 20 years: CAGR 13.31%, PNR 90%
Last 10 years: CAGR 17.86%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 11.61%, PNR 80%

Spin-offs:
Rome26’s Mix (Uses C in July): -14.70%
Rothwell’s Mix (Uses S in Mar, May, Nov and C in Sep): -4.08%

TSP Center’s Default Setting: -10.29% for 2018
Since 1988: CAGR 13.08%, PNR 90%
Last 20 years: CAGR 10.66%, PNR 90%
Last 10 years: CAGR 10.19%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 4.92%, PNR 60%

Spin-offs: None

tmj100’s Mix: -11.97% for 2018
Since 1988: CAGR 15.60%, PNR 90%
Last 20 years: CAGR 12.50%, PNR 85%
Last 10 years: CAGR 18.49%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 13.66%, PNR 80%

Spin-offs: None

Boltman’s Mix: -4.08% for 2018
Since 1988: CAGR 13.91%, PNR 81%
Last 20 years: CAGR 12.55%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 16.43%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 9.64%, PNR 60%

Spin-offs: None

Sell in May and Go Away: -12.81% for 2018
Since 1988: CAGR 10.56%, PNR 87%
Last 20 years: CAGR 7.82%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 10.82%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 5.05%, PNR 80%

Spin-offs:
Aitrus’ Homebrew V2 (uses S and F Funds in the same pattern): -17.23%
Aitrus’ Homebrew V3 (uses S and G Funds in the same pattern): -16.80%
Aitrus’ Homebrew V4 (uses C and F Funds in the same pattern): -13.25%

G All Year, S in Dec: -8.32% for 2018
Since 1988: CAGR 7.07%, PNR 94%
Last 20 years: CAGR 5.25%, PNR 90%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.82%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.35%, PNR 60%

Spin-offs:
F All Year, S in Dec (just what the title says): -12.16%

Others Mixes I’m tracking behind the scenes that aren’t spin-offs from any of the above:

Skiehawk’s EMA Mix (C all year except F in Aug and Oct, uses a technical indicator): -2.13%
C&F (a Mix that uses only C and F when choosing which Fund to be in for the month): -12.07%
S&F (same as above, using only S and F): -9.08%
I&F (same as above, using only I and F): -9.86%

This year was a weird one, with normally strong seasons being weak and the normally weak seasons being strong. December 2018 ended things pretty harshly in the worst ending to a year the TSP has seen to date. It was a back-and-forth fight all year, with the Mixes slowly gaining ground back to even by the fall. Then the markets hit everybody with a couple of rabbit punches to the kidneys in October. We fought back a bit in November, and most Mixes were either in the positive or close to it. Then the markets gave us a no-nonsense beat-down with a barbed-wire covered Louisville Slugger in December. It was a savage ending to an uneasy year.

Out of all the Mixes, only a few beat their buy-and-hold Fund benchmarks for 2018. They were (in order of success):

Skiehawk’s EMA Mix (beat the C Fund by 2.28% and the S Fund by 7.13%)
Rothwell’s Mix (beat the C Fund by 0.33% and the S Fund by 5.18%)
Boltman’s Mix (beat the C Fund by 0.33% and the S Fund by 5.18%)
Jahbulon’s SMA Enter Only Mix (beat the C Fund by 1.03% and the S Fund by 5.88%)
Jahbulon’s SMA Mix (beat the S Fund by 3.86%)
S & F Only Mix (beat the S Fund by 0.18%)

The worst three performers for 2018 were (in order of suckage):

Aitrus’ Homebrew V2 at -17.23%
Aitrus’ Homebrew V3 at -16.80%
Jahbulon’s Basic Mix at -16.15%

This hurts, because I really, really like Jahbulon’s Basic Mix. Out of all the Mixes, it’s my favorite. Still, I take comfort in knowing that since I started this thread in 2014, anybody following Jahbulon’s Basic Mix would have had a total return of 53.12%. In addition, they would have outperformed buy-and-holding the C Fund by 8.44% and the S Fund by 22.94%. That’s not too shabby for somebody who never took an accounting or investment class in his life, I think.

Despite 2018’s setback, I am still convinced that the seasonal method is a viable strategy for an investor with limited monthly fund transfers to use. Long term, the track record is still solid with appropriately selected Funds.

Other notes for this year: in May forum member Rothwell came up with a good Mix that performed really well this year. The new Mix somewhat resembles gclapper’s Mix, and so it is listed and tracked as a spin-off for that one.

Also this year, the Fed raised interest rates several times, which likely affected F Fund returns to the downside, but helped the G Fund have its best year since 2009. The Fed is currently forecasted to raise rates twice more in 2019.

Finally, the TSP Board announced a couple of changes to the Funds. The first is the L Funds will be made more aggressive, the details of which I won’t cover here but is worth looking at if you use those Funds.

The other announcement was to change the index that the I Fund follows. Historically, the I Fund follows the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index. This index had very poor returns over the long run, and is likely one of the reasons for the change. The new index will be the MSCI ACWI ex USA Investable Market Index. This index captures large, mid and small cap representation across 22 developed markets and 24 emerging markets, and does not include any US companies. At present, it contains 6,149 companies, and covers approximately 99% of the global market outside the US. While this proposal was first made in Nov 2017, it hadn’t yet been approved by the TSP Board, but word on the street is that they approved it in late 2018 (I’m still looking for confirmation that this approval took place). If approved, the plan is to effect the change no later than mid 2019. For the budget hawks out there, it’s estimated to cost approximately $57 million to do the changeover.

The major 2019 project for me (in relation to TSP, anyway) is to do a historical comparison of this new index and incorporate it into all the Mixes that use the I Fund. It will be interesting for me because I haven’t taken on a historical top-to-bottom creation of a Fund since 2014, and I wonder if the result will be a better I Fund or a worse one. We’ll see as time goes on.

…and that wraps it up for 2018. Stay tuned for a new thread: “Seasonal Musings 2019”. It’ll have the same format, and the first few posts will be a little different from this year’s in that I will change up some of the details to reflect up-to-date numbers.

Thanks for reading, commenting, suggesting new ideas, and all the support. I’m looking forward to keeping this thing going as long as it stays fun, educational and profitable!

[Tomanyiron]

... The G Fund continues its multi-year comeback, although it has a long way to go to reach the best-for-Fund high of 8.89% back in 1990...

Wow, wouldn’t that be something, to sit in the G all year long and earn 8.89%.
Of course there’s a Catch-22, the inflation rate was huge back then.
https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-inflatio ... st-3306093
Thanks Aitrus