Can’t Sit in the G Forever

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crondanet5
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by crondanet5 »

Next week could be a downer. Options expiration.

michigande
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by michigande »

XAMOTOMAX wrote:Well looks like there's the double top. Now will it drop more and find new support around 1340 (DWCPF) or 2730 (SP500)? Going to be uncomfortable letting it get to that point if it does drop more and it's generally bad form to evaluate formations that aren't yet complete but that's what I'm doing and I'm staying put in S. If it doesn't drop that far and heads upward again, no problem. If it breaks support at those levels and I have to eat some losses, so be it.
X,

How does today's decline fit in to your analysis, dip before the big buying happens... fingers crossed? You sure nailed it on support at 1340 for the DWCPF the other day, impressed!

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by Tomanyiron »

XAMOTOMAX wrote:I'm watching an inverse head and shoulders taking shape in both C and S ...
Kind of scary in a way.
Image
But symbolizes something good in the stock market
Image
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

XAMOTOMAX
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by XAMOTOMAX »

We're really at the crossroads today. Yesterday's drop still keeps the inverse h/s in play for both C and S but it definitely tests my conviction lol. That's probably the point though as it's common for a drop to take place immediately before a rally to shake loose any iffy investors. Volume wasn't very high yesterday. Futures are up this am. If they were down again I'd be very concerned but truthfully we have a long way to go upward before the reversal is confirmed. Right now it's speculatory in a sketchy market so definitely not a play for the risk averse (which I generally am lol). But a little slope in a h/s is pretty common and I'm still in S waiting for all of this to play out. I think there's a Santa rally coming but that it will be the last hoorah for this bull market but I'm definitely a little spooked that it's not going to materialize and I'll be standing here holding the hot potato.
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XAMOTOMAX
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by XAMOTOMAX »

Thanks for the graphic Tomany.

*just saw the shape of the bat.... Very well played!
Last edited by XAMOTOMAX on Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

wingchaser
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by wingchaser »

Alignin' with Xamo's Inverse-Speak, if Insider's & Institutional Investor's are SELLING on the rumor only to later BUY on the news, it sure would help to know what the rumor was...

I'm thinking that Trade Talks are not goin' well @ all, coupled with one of the worst Oil Bear Markets in the last 30 year's & I'll coin a phrase from one of my favorite line's from a Jack Nicholson movie,

"I'm dyin' here!!!" (As Good as It Gets; 1997).

[rcozby] is the 2nd Heavy Hitter to seek refuge in the G Fund & the interesting thing behind his move is that he doesn't have a return option...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by Tomanyiron »

I’m watching today’s action, S&P, Sm Caps, and bonds. Keeping an eye on ratio charts ($DWCPF:$SPX) and EFA compared to Dollar, the ratio of the two. Everything is looking good, but I don’t like the $VIX, not going down.

What does the gut say? Because “It is 90% mental -- the other half is charts”.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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rcozby
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by rcozby »

wingchaser wrote: [rcozby] is the 2nd Heavy Hitter to seek refuge in the G Fund & the interesting thing behind his move is that he doesn't have a return option...
Cron made me do it. :mrgreen:

Actually, some truth to that. Not options expiry so much as Thursday's deadline for hedge funds to put in their year-end sell orders. The hedges got overtrimmed this year so looking for signs of capitulation, which yesterday seemed to be.

Tough call to bail so early in the month, but I'm on vacation next two weeks and wanted to ensure I had something to be thankful for when I got back. :wink:

XAMOTOMAX
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by XAMOTOMAX »

wingchaser wrote:..... Oil......
Getting pummeled today and killing the rally. It looks $50 bound or lower.

wingchaser
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by wingchaser »

rcozby wrote:
wingchaser wrote: [rcozby] is the 2nd Heavy Hitter to seek refuge in the G Fund & the interesting thing behind his move is that he doesn't have a return option...
Cron made me do it. :mrgreen:

Actually, some truth to that. Not options expiry so much as Thursday's deadline for hedge funds to put in their year-end sell orders. The hedges got overtrimmed this year so looking for signs of capitulation, which yesterday seemed to be.

Tough call to bail so early in the month, but I'm on vacation next two weeks and wanted to ensure I had something to be thankful for when I got back. :wink:

Have a great Vacation, rcozby!!!

My favorite (this time of year) is to walk the Beaches, along the Eastern Seaboard. Unlike the stock market, I tend to have things my own way & @ discounted Beachfront prices...

Local Getaway: Bengie's Drive-In in Baltimore, MD is still open

http://www.bengies.com/NowShowing.php

You can pretty much pick your own vantage point (should the mood suit you). They also supply car heater's if it gets too chilly...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!
Last edited by wingchaser on Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by Tomanyiron »

:?: :? I hate there is more time after the noon cutoff than there is before :evil:
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

wingchaser
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by wingchaser »

Whatever we owe this uptick (^DWCPF) to, I'll take it...

Now, if only the next 14,400 seconds (~ four (4) dreaded "Tomany" hrs.) cooperates...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by Tomanyiron »

crondanet5 wrote:Next week could be a downer. Options expiration.
#5, When will our options get better, and stop expiring ? :(
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

crondanet5
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by crondanet5 »

#5 ALIVE! Loved that movie. Stephanie...…. nice software. Maybe next month options will go better. Seems like a lot of bloodletting going on. Hopefully things will stabilize soon.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Can’t Sit in the G Forever

Post by Tomanyiron »

We've going through a really bad stretch – you saw the sickening decline Wednesday after the session got off to what looked like a decent start.
Every day the market starts up, I’ve been sitting here hoping for it to continue to rally.Image

But an actual, bona fide rally has been elusive. It’s a Muhammad Ali market right now: It's run by the bears, and they not only knock stocks down, they can choose the round in which they do it.
They knew what we were watching for in buy signals, and they set us up. They do it while laughing and singing “All your base are belong to us.”

You get to thinking you can predict the next rally, you think you know when it’s due. You develop a strategy that gives the confidence to commit. But convictions are wrong! Friedrich Nietzsche quote, “Convictions are more dangerous enemies of truth than lies.” So let me give you the facts about predicting rallies. You can get some right, but you will always get some wrong. So every IFT can be a winner or it can be a lesson.

Updated chart from OP
Image
http://schrts.co/PFpejy
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

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