2018 Strength and Market Pull

[OkieTSPer]

Thanks Tomi.

[wingchaser]

Finally, a catalyst to turn this recent sell-off around (here's hopin' it's more than momentarily)...

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/11/busi ... -cuts.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!

[Tomanyiron]

Thanks Wing. I've been checking the stock futures, and it's not been looking good until last night. That must have been what changed things. S&P up a little, Mon 5:45AM EST.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Monday November 12, Pull lost some, and has that roll-over look.
PAST 7 Trading Days
11/02 4.11
11/05 4.86
11/06 5.56
11/07 6.26
11/08 6.66
11/09 6.80
11/12 6.68

And on the Strength chart, that Bearish Cross of stocks and bonds go worse.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Tuesday November 13, Pull came in with 2nd down-day. That’s a Pull System sell signal. This market needs to show me something before noon, or I’m outta here.
PAST 7 Trading Days
11/05 4.86
11/06 5.56
11/07 6.26
11/08 6.66
11/09 6.80
11/12 6.68
11/13 6.58


The I fund was strutting its stuff yesterday, and made userque happy. Moved him up to #7 on the YTD.
The two odd birds, F and I funds trying to kiss? I bet they'll act like they don't even know each other tomorrow.

[userque]

...The I fund was strutting its stuff yesterday, and made userque happy. Moved him up to #7 on the YTD...

Ha! Yeah...got a little happy

Thanks Oct, however a lot of folks will say “It proves nothing”. And I agree that there is insufficient history on the Pull, (backtesting). When I first started the Pull, I tried to do some manual backtesting, at the time I called it “Backlooking”. What if I used it in 08-09, that kind of looking back? I found that, some of the Momentum and Breath Oscillators, the Bullish Percent Indexes have not been around all that long.

Well the long story, short is I gave up, and with what little time I had, I put into the daily calculations and the presentations. If it worked better that Buy-n-Hold, great. If it worked better than some of the seasonal strategies, even better. Well the jury is still out, Got to have 3 or 4 years in a row.

If you're interested, I can see about building an Excel backtester for your pull system.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Wednesday November 14, Pull trend continues to weaken, with any intraday rally attempts not getting any traction.
PAST 7 Trading Days
11/06 5.56
11/07 6.26
11/08 6.66
11/09 6.80
11/12 6.68
11/13 6.58
11/05 6.32

[wingchaser]

Closin' off Session Highs are never strong indicators. A lot of us have lost over 50% of YTD gains during these recent downtrends. The market wants to go down & I wish I could simply let it...

Now, for the good news, 118 of us (out of 17,552 members) are still outperforming the market (>2.72%) & for that we need to remain grateful...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!

[wingchaser]

"Tomany" down days!!! This, however, could be the "traction" that we've all been lookin' for...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11- ... to+zero%29

both today & beyond!!! Here's hopin'...

Best Wishes (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Thursday November 15, On the chart the Pull looks like it turned flat. But it did come up slightly +0.01. Why so little with a +1% price bump? Well the down inertia has been strong, and the Pull does not turn on a dime. No buy signal that I can see (even if I could), the trend has not changed yet, kinda is in flux.
PAST 7 Trading Days
11/07 6.26
11/08 6.66
11/09 6.80
11/12 6.68
11/13 6.58
11/14 6.32
11/15 6.33


On the Strength chart, the good news is the S got energized. My opinion, when this thing is officially over, it will be Small Caps that led us out of the woods.

[crondanet5]

I see you are out of IFTs for November.

[Tomanyiron]

I see you are out of IFTs for November.

Black Friday may make me regret that. But, "You never know what worse luck your bad luck will saved you from." Well anyway, I wished I had made my exit one day later.
EDIT: Or two days before you did. OK I would take anything between that and mine.

[wingchaser]

a Tomany Yogi-ism: November risks are startin' to outweigh any rewards, for some time now...

Best Wishes (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!

[Tomanyiron]

a Tomany Yogi-ism: November risks are startin' to outweigh any rewards, for some time now...

Best Wishes (everyone) in all you chose to endeavor!!!

I know. It's like Chinese water torture. Relief , then bam , relief , then bam , , , , , , ...

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Friday November 16, Two up-days back-to-back is a buy signal for stock funds.
11/08 6.66
11/09 6.80
11/12 6.68
11/13 6.58
11/14 6.32
11/15 6.33
11/16 6.39

The Strength chart points to the S fund, to buy.