2019 Push, Pull & Strength

[MLDavis]

Thanks Tomanyiron. Really enjoy your perspective on the funds and the push and pull analysis. I run some technical analysis locally with all five funds. Nice to compare the two.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Friday January 11
The stock funds sure look like the crest of a wave. The Push now has 6 days the same result, 6.34, (I’m getting tired of looking at that number). However, I understand the calmness of the indicator. The Pull is still climbing. Stock futures are down, and if today has significant negative volume with lower EOD prices, the bullish meter will trigger a sell. It might be "adios la bolsa de valores amigos" for a while.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Monday January 14
Yes the stock funds gave back some, but with run-of-the-mill volume. And an unassuming bond performance.
PUSH: Still Flat
PULL: Still Climbing
STRENGTH: Relaxation
IMPLICATIONS: Hold Stocks with slight lean toward C fund.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Tuesday January 15
The stock fund prices did some yo-yoing the first two days of the week. That translated into a flat look in Strength.
However the Push and Pull indicators ignored all that. And surprisingly the Push came up 0.02.

PUSH: Went from Flat to Slightly Up.
PULL: Still Climbing
STRENGTH: Short-term Paltry Looking
IMPLICATIONS: Still Holding Stocks with Transfer to C fund.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Wednesday January 16
The market bottomed (short or long-term, yet to be decided) in late December and has been climbing ever since. Price wise, the S has shown the most upside leadership.
So smooth sailing now? Not necessarily, there may be more work to do before saying that. My version of Strength gives a paused expectation.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Thursday January 17
OK, I will ask it before someone else does, “Tomany, what does all these multicolored lines mean?”

PUSH: (The bold purple line) Represents (maybe I should say my interpretation of) the intermediate trend. It’s turn-up and moderate climbing supports the Pull’s findings.

PULL: (The bold dark pink line) represents a shorter trend. It shows the dip ending a Christmas, and then an uninterrupted climb.

STRENGTH: The three stock funds embedded just below 10, shows stability with the fund's prices.

IMPLICATIONS (as I interpret): If you are in stocks, hold on, don’t get scared. But be really and be thinking about some defensive moves. I.E, G fund is always safe, F fund if you think a true down-trend is in the works. C fund, good for the transition that occurs at tops, a “straddling the fence” allocation.
If not in stocks should I get in? I really don’t know. But I lean toward waiting, because I like jumping in when those lines are low, and then starting up.

Why do I do this? Honestly, it’s great if this helps everyone, but mainly I do it for myself (no not my ego). Because writing it down, presenting it to the world, forces me to be studious, non fickle, and honest to my strategy.

[Billionair]

As always, you're the best Tom .

Good day for the C and the S! China agreed to purchase more goods to lower the trade imbalance! We got atleast 3% more I think before a sell.

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/dow-r ... s-14838270

[12squared]

Updated EOD, Thursday January 17
OK, I will ask it before someone else does, “Tomany, what does all these multicolored lines mean?”

STRENGTH: The three stock funds embedded just below 10, shows stability with the fund's prices.

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Tomanyiron,

Comparison of your graph with percent changes from 12/6/18 to 1/17/19 presents a different view of Fund action.
http://tspcenter.com/tspReturns.php

What are the units of the vertical axis?

12²

[Tomanyiron]

My Strength numbers come from the fund’s stochastic oscillations, a (0-100) measurement. It is not price alone, it includes the speed of price movements or what is commonly called momentum.

Edit: And to further explain this chart’s Strength measurements, I would say it’s more like a saturation thing. Take the example of a washcloth, it will absorb water to a point. After that it may start drying out, but not if continually held under the water tap. That near complete saturation measurement can be portrayed as the market being overbought (in the short-term). But does not necessarily mean an automatic drying out.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Friday January 18
There are lots of questions as to whether the current rally is the start of a new bull market, or only a bear market rally? If you look at long range charts, they favor the bear market scenario.
However the intermediate trend (PUSH) went from down to flat to gradual improvement. Even if we knew the answer to the long-term question, it wouldn’t have much to do with the most profitable IFTs per month.

[Tomanyiron]

Updated EOD, Tuesday January 22
PUSH: (The bold purple line) Intermediate trend, put in slightly higher number.
PULL: (The bold dark pink line) Short trend dropped a little.
STRENGTH: The three stock funds have come down, after staying flat for the past 5 trading days. The F fund has a “U” upturn look to it.
IMPLICATIONS (as I interpret): Go defensive if today’s before noon prices don’t stand out. G fund is always safe, F fund if you got an IFT.

[Billionair]

Having a rather difficult decision to stay in S and roll these dice, or go to G. Market opened high on earnings, yet sifted lower by chow. Shutdown may be resolved tomorrow + China talks on the 30th, but many days lie in between.

Choices....going to go with my gut and stick with my G move.

[Tomanyiron]

Choices....going to go with my gut and stick with my G move.

I was encouraged for a while, but this selloff is telling me there's likely to be more downside to come. G for me also.

[Billionair]

Yeah, if any lessons learned in October, was to stop the bleeding and not ride out the storm. Buy low, sell high. Go to G and await the next buy signal. I do miss your Pull with numbers, but the chart for bull and sell signals were effective today. I think the sell signal is coming on strong, I just want today to end up in the green.

[michigande]

Agreed, I'm outta here. Depending on how today shakes out I'll be up around 3% for the month, which I was expecting to sit in G all month anyway.