Bullish Signal

[Tomanyiron]

Lately I have thought it wise to stay out of the markets. I have observed from the sidelines, looking for a pullback that never came. Well maybe the pullback came and went and that was all we are going to get. I got a signal a few days ago, but I was struggling with the feeling we didn’t pullback enough. I missed out.

The trading strategy that I use involves several charts that require conditions and triggers. They never all agree, and end up giving me a percent. It is up to me to determine how high the percent should get before accepting the signal. The more conservative I feel, the larger the percent I require. The charts I have selected to pay the most attention to have come to me from long hours of studying. Ones that determine trends that can be capitalized on if timed right. I know I don't have the necessary credentials to be a lead speaker on this subject. So, I will just provide what I interpret from the charts. Yeah its looks like a turn-up is under way. And the chart below is the last one to add weight to the 100% S fund decision.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ITV ... =389948140

It is a chart of the S&P Small Cap IT Volume Momentum Oscillator (red line), with the S fund proxy $EMW (blue line) overlaid. The vertical green and red lines are what I consider buy and sell triggers, using the MACD and/or the Stochastic RSI.

[Lafrinere]

I wrote this to Tomanyirons, but really it applies to everyone that uses charts.

I like this chart Tomy, but it seems just a little bit late on the buy and also the sell signal. You know, like "shave a little off the top and a little off the bottom". I'm not sure I would use it to base my decisions on, but more of a confirmation chart than anything. Yes, you will probably do okay with it, but you will be a little late with every decision. The MACD crossover points are just too late to make the best gains and to catch the loss when it begins.

I look at charts also when making my decisions to buy and sell, but charts don't tell you everything. For the most part, charts look at history and show you only the past. When I look at a chart, I try to anticipate the next upside or downside swing. If you wait for it to begin before making changes, you have already fallen behind. Charts, along with market calendars, major market movers and national/international news, gives me a much bigger picture to base my market decisions and timing on.

I'm not sure of your age, but I see that your risk tolerance says "medium". If you are young enough and can stand some loss, it's best to risk a little more to make the biggest gains.

[rlinehan]

Thanks for sharing the communication, Lafrinere!

The issue you raised is important and seems especially pertinent at this website.

It is also well-known and further discussed elsewhere, such as:

http://theirrelevantinvestor.tumblr.com ... ategy-ever

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/05/ ... investors/

http://wealthyretirement.com/market-tim ... o-do-next/

Indeed, today’s Wall Street Journal carried a blog that described trying to do the above with TSP-like stock funds:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/05/ ... he-market/?

[Tomanyiron]

I like this chart Tomy, but it seems just a little bit late on the buy and also the sell signal.

Michael, I agree it can be late, and was very late this time. Many stock trading systems are late, some are too twitchy. I have gained some experience by practicing both. While this may not be beneficial for some investors. We all have to learn and use what lets us sleep at night. Spotting chart patterns with entry/exit points, is never going to be perfect. But the psychological side of things require something that gives you a level of confidence worth taking the risk.

I've spent some time reading blogs and news items. It is just not my "Cup of Soup".

[crondanet5]

Nice to hear from you Tommy. Now I'm wondering if it is time to exit.

[rlinehan]

Same thing occurred to me:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000379987

[Tomanyiron]

Nice to hear from you Tommy. Now I'm wondering if it is time to exit.

You never liked the I fund anyway. Tractor had to drag you along kicking and screaming.
Just be glad you were not in the L 2030 on Fri. TSP Share Prices for May 15, 2015, L 2030 -8.33%.

[Tomanyiron]

I'm not sure I would use it to base my decisions on, but more of a confirmation chart than anything.

That is what I used it for Michael, I had two buy triggers on May 6. But I was not in the "ready to take risk" state of mine. Many other things going on this Spring. I have a system I'm happy with, but how close I follow it depends on my risk appetite at the time. Everyone has a personal attitude to risk. It is something hard to measure and is changeable, what feels comfortable one day may not the next. I'm not a professional, so I have that option.
And just to be clear to everyone, I'm only thinking of my comfort zone when I make my IFT's.

There is a riskier version of me, 2manyirons at TSPTalk. Number 63 on the Tracker. That riskier version is doing okay this year, not so good last year.
http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user ... non_ps.php

[Lafrinere]

I know you do well and make good decisions Tomy, and that is why you are on "my watch list".

[crondanet5]

Michael, how is retirement treating you?

[Lafrinere]

Michael, how is retirement treating you?

Cron,
Actually, retirement has been really good. I haven't touched my TSP yet, but will soon to pay off a couple things. My stress levels have greatly reduced and my health has already improved a lot. I'm enjoying boating and fishing a lot more often and life is good.

It took the Fed way too long to get my retirement check straight, but all is good now.

[rlinehan]

Cool!

Congratulations!

Keep us posted on how your TSP withdrawals go. As you've doubtless read, many of us here worry about that "process."

And thanks, once again, for your comments in this thread: They were well formulated!

[crondanet5]

Michael did you roll your TSP Account out of the TSP?

[rlinehan]

See?

[skiehawk11]

Lafrinere, I must say I am slightly jealous of your retirement location. I was in Florida a week ago for vacation and realized that retiring there would be awesome plus the no income tax laws.