What are the Odds?

[Tomanyiron]

A new year, so where do we start?
What follows will be my day to day assessment, using two methods. The first is an ongoing tally of the allocations of the top 20 of the 360-day leaders. The second is a risk meter, I’m using to illustrate the risk each day. The higher the number the pointer points to the higher the risk.

The first one is easy, anyone can look at the leader board by date range. I’m just providing a graphic form to observe the top 20, including a short past history of the top 20 compared to the actual market action. From my observations, they are mostly seasonal investors. Some trend followers, “Lagging Indicators”. But you can’t argue with their allocations much, because they wouldn’t be on the top 20 list if their systems weren’t working.

Update: EOD Thu 12/31/15
Allocations of the Top 20 Players out of 360-day Leaders. The actual C and S fund price movements (dotted lines at the top) are just for comparison, the numbers mean nothing. The Alloc numbers (solid lines) do represent how many of the top 20 are in each fund.



The second one, the “Risk Meter” is basted on my observations and calculations. I shouldn’t have to say, the “my” makes this subjective, not any true science. I will try to keep it completely unbiased, but I’m human and as they say “beauty is in the eye of the beholder”..

I have 18 charts and indicator combinations I study at the end of each day. I take one at a time, study it, and decide if looks bullish of bearish, basted on past patterns. Some may be neutral, with nothing I see as positive or negative. The idea is to use a combination of signals, not too small a list, but not to large too manage. I once had a hundred of these chart/indicators. It was “Too Much Information”. It took too long to go through all of them. For a while I had one or two, for the signals. That turned-out to be a little too much hit and miss for my taste. The 18 I have now are working out okay. I see nothing that needs improving. A real good dependable leading indicator would be great, you know of one?
NOTE: this was calculated EOD Dec 31, This morning's pre-markets played no part in it. This is strictly an EOD market price and indicator driven system.
[url=http://i.imgur.com/PcxVsay.png]

[crondanet5]

Tommy was your G Fund IFT effective Thursday night market close or are you hit with today's selloff?

[Tomanyiron]

Cron, Yes I input in time to be in the G for today, same as my TSPGov, "real money". I guess we have wait and see if that 3-day list of IFTs get processed correctly.

[Tomanyiron]

Update: EOD Mon 1/4/16
Allocations of the Top 20 Players out of 360 Day Leaders
The actual C and S fund price movements (dotted lines at the top) are just for comparison, the numbers mean nothing. The Alloc numbers (solid lines) do represent how many of the top 20 are in each fund.

[crondanet5]

Since the IFTs did not go through on this web site is this chart incorrectly showing the top 20 allocations?

[Tomanyiron]

Good question, do we even know who the top 20 are today? I know who they were EOD Dec 30, 2015, and I looked up and down that long list of IFTs. I found the ones that moved, and adjusted the list. The bottom third may have lost their place in the 20, but this will probably be close. The best we can do until we get some updates.

[Tomanyiron]

Update: EOD Tue 1/5/16
Allocations of the Top 20 Players out of 360 Day Leaders
The actual C and S fund price movements (dotted lines at the top) are for comparison, the numbers mean nothing. The Alloc numbers (solid lines) do represent how many of the top 20 are in each fund.

[crondanet5]

Don't hold your breath waiting for the update. And that means all your hard worked data is skewed portraying the wrong players. Do you stay with the correct players from before the 4 Jan market drop or do you use the list of players as calculated Monday night? It makes your study difficult for you and will raise questions from the newbies as they try to analyze your list of players.

[Tomanyiron]

Cron, I know it is flawed some, but I hope everyone knows that this is not meant to be “The Best Signaling System Ever”. It is more in the area of FYI.

The Top 20, when they “screw up”, loose their ranking. Wiser more observant players move up, (watch BradTheDad get rewarded after the close). And I am flabbergasted by how many remained in stocks leading into today’s loses. Did they not get the memos, snafu and I sent out the other day?

This is not a substitute for a personal “watch list”. We know there will be flaws with anything we use, how is seasonality working?

[MLDavis]

Hi Tommy! Still trying to grasp the risk meter and where and what you are gathering the data for the meter. Love the concept!

[Tomanyiron]

Hi Tommy! Still trying to grasp the risk meter and where and what you are gathering the data for the meter. Love the concept!

I have 18 charts and indicator combinations I study at the end of each day. I take one at a time, study it, and decide if looks bullish of bearish, basted on past patterns. Some may be neutral. The idea is to use a combination of signals, not too small a list, but not to large too manage. I once had a hundred of these chart/indicators. It was “Too Much Information”. It took too long to go through all of them. For a while I had one or two, for the signals. That turned-out to be a little too much hit and miss for my taste. The 18 I have now are working out okay. I see nothing that needs improving. A real good dependable leading indicator would be great, you know of one?

[MLDavis]

Make sense. Guess you have your own factors from the 18 charts and combinations to come up with your risk index.

[RGEN]

Tomany,
Seasonality is working about as well as it did last year.

[Tomanyiron]

Make sense. Guess you have your own factors from the 18 charts and combinations to come up with your risk index.

Here is one of the 18, see the sell signals? This one is in the overbought category.

[Scoobsshac]

Tomany,

Can you please post the link to the chart above. Thanks.