Fed Meeting/Brexit

[thumpinhar]

imo i'd say definitely cancel your IFT and wait a few days(weeks?) at the very least to let things settle before you make a transfer

Thanks that's what I was thinking. Wasn't sure if I accidentally stumbled onto a "good " time to buy or if I was about to loose my butt.

[heckrules]

Polls are one thing, but I prefer predictive markets.

http://predictwise.com/politics/uk-politics

Predictive markets have shown to be more reliable than polling. Since many of them involve money, people do work just as they do for the stock market to make money combined with the wisdom of the crowd.

Looks like Predictwise was Unwise on Brexit.........note how the chart flips AFTER the vote......

[MakeMe$$$$]

I'm kinda pissed at myself that I didn't just sell nearly everything yesterday. My gut said the market was being optimistic and that a remain vote was nearly priced in.

I expect that things will sort themselves out but it gonna take a while...perhaps a long while.

[Tomanyiron]

Polls are one thing, but I prefer predictive markets.

Polls are skewed toward political correctness. This is a modification of the Bradley effect. The Bradley effect posits that the inaccurate polls are skewed by the phenomenon of “social desirability bias”. People being polled were under pressure to provide an answer that was deemed to be more publicly acceptable. Cameron wanted to stay in the EU, and Obama pushed to stay in also. This sort of thing occurs in elections all the time. Sometimes the error percent is low, but it can be enough to change the outcome.

[nrialto]

Does anyone plan on buying in today? I'm always hesitant to buy on a Friday, considering you never know what futures are going to do over the weekend.

[evilanne]

Everyone take a deep breath. If you are in the market, it is not the end of the world. Trading based on fear/emotion generally will lose you more money. Any IFT you enter now will take place tonight after the markets have gone down & our markets have not even opened yet. You have about 3+ hours to analyze & make a decision whether or not to make an IFT. It may be a good buying opportunity or things could get worse...but nothing has really changed as of yet.

[heckrules]

I'm kinda pissed at myself that I didn't just sell nearly everything yesterday. My gut said the market was being optimistic and that a remain vote was nearly priced in.

I expect that things will sort themselves out but it gonna take a while...perhaps a long while.

I based not getting into I-fund last Friday on those who said Britain was going to remain in the EU.....I had the transfer all setup but didn't pull the trigger....missed out on a $15K bump.....but at least I'm not going to lose big when the market opens today.....

[nrialto]

Is anyone going to the core funds today with their real TSP? I'm tempted, but would hate to see them continue downward next week.

[evilanne]

Made IFT yesterday so only have one left. Although nothing has really changed yet, I am concerned with what impact the reaction could have so I'm cautious and will probably wait until next week.

[XAMOTOMAX]

Is anyone going to the core funds today with their real TSP? I'm tempted, but would hate to see them continue downward next week.

It's acting like a bottom....I'm waffling at the moment. 70 minutes to decide.

[nrialto]

News regarding the federal reserve this morning:

"The Federal Reserve on Friday said it was prepared to add dollar liquidity if needed in global financial markets, in an effort with its global partners to calm the storm unleashed in financial markets by the outcome of the Brexit referendum."

This makes me think stocks will be propped back up next week.

[MakeMe$$$$]

Is anyone going to the core funds today with their real TSP? I'm tempted, but would hate to see them continue downward next week.

Personally, since I'm "committed" I will just ride it out. The volatility makes it very difficult to figure what horse to jump on at this point.

Part of me thinks that this mornings dump is a reaction to "OH SHIT! They did it."

Even though I didn't listen to my gut and divest yesterday with profit, even I am not surprised by the outcome. On some of the news networks they are saying how the market was surprised...how in the hell could they be so totally surprised. This was going to be close and no one should have been surprised by it...in either direction.

[MakeMe$$$$]

News regarding the federal reserve this morning:

"The Federal Reserve on Friday said it was prepared to add dollar liquidity if needed in global financial markets, in an effort with its global partners to calm the storm unleashed in financial markets by the outcome of the Brexit referendum."

This makes me think stocks will be propped back up next week.

Predictable! Unless we see a rather strong, consistent global improvement I don't think there will be an interest rate hike this year which would help with the stocks. The problem is that this process will drag out for 2 (or more years*) so we will have to see how that plays in the long run.

* GB has 2 years to complete all exiting processes from the time they officially inform the EU of there plan to exit. That can be extended 1 year if ALL remaining EU members agree to an extension.

[XAMOTOMAX]

Pretty much EVERYONE had their mind made up that remaIN would win and that was priced into the market over the last week, especially in I fund. If they had voted to stay, I don't see how it could have gone up much more. This move really isn't that big and just gives back those speculative gains plus a little more for the overall uncertainty a Brexit creates. SP500 futures touched 1999 overnight and then bounced...If we did see a bottom already, I think we also saw most of the bounce. I'm staying put in G...more downside risk first of next week than upside potential from a possible bounce IMO.

[TopNotch]

At some point, bargain hunters will step in and snatch up undervalued stocks, and then we could see a bounce for the C and S funds. I plan to sit tight for the next few days and then reevaluate. I'm sitting on some cash in my non-TSP account and looking to buy more of my favorite stocks.