Returns by Day of the Month

[Tomanyiron]

Not wanting to hijack nrialto’s thread, and with information from rcozby and RGEN, I thought a new thread was needed to pursue this topic.

I plan to execute IFT to S on 23 June and will go back into hiding on 30 June. Seasonally, this particular week yields about a 1.5% gain....

EquityClock.com. They don't do DWCPF so I use Russell 2000 as an approximation.

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_ ... %5ERUT.PNG

I have a chart that shows the months with the better Turn-Of-the-Month (TOM) effect.

[/quote]

And I found this average of all months charts athttp://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/2015/ ... the-month/. (cron, this is chart's numbers 23,303 - 23,305).
The following chart plots the average daily returns for the 31 calendar days in a month for the S&P 500 index over the period 1950-2015. (NB. This is looking at calendar – not trading – days of the month.) For example, since 1950, the S&P 500 index has on average increased 0.22% on the 1st day of each month.



Observations
1. The first day of each month has the highest average daily return for the S&P 500 index. Followed by the last day of the month.
2. The worst average daily return has been on the 9th of the month
3. As can be seen in the chart, the periods of strongest daily returns occur in the first and last weeks of months.

[evilanne]

Interesting. Thanks Tomanyiron.

[crondanet5]

The second chart supports the need for more monthly IFTs to take advantage of the potential gains indicated by your chart. Stupid TSP Board.

[xforceguy]

Very interesting....thanks

[lotusgarde]

So are you doing IFT by noon on the 22nd or the 23rd?

[rcozby]

I was originally targeting the 23rd in anticipation of a win for Leave...hoping it would be a buy low opportunity. But with today's impact of the new poll numbers, I fear it might turn out to be a buy high. So I'm sitting still at present.