Seasonal Musings 2017

[hilgard50]

I am new to this site where can i see the overview of Seasonal Musings and the different methods with their recommendations in each month?

Thanks

[galveston1]

You're in the right place. Just go back to page 1.

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13214

[evilanne]

Start at page 1 and read the 1st few pages.

[Daegu]

A long read, but well worth it.

[Vanguard]

Seasonal is coming back around for June. Good luck everyone.

[Aitrus]

For July 2017
Last chance to move: Friday, 30 Jun before noon EST
For this coming July, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.43%
Last 20 years: 0.35%
Last 10 years: 0.24%
Last 5 years: 0.16%

June is historically the best month of the year for the G Fund. The 2016 return was 0.13%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.76%, PNR 76%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.67%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.77%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.54%, PNR 80%

July is arguably the second best month of the year for the F Fund. The 2016 return was 0.64%.

The best years were 1997 (2.69%), 2001 (2.22%) and 1989 (2.06%). The worst years were 2003 (-2.51%), 2005 (-0.84%) and 1988 (-0.49%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.11%, PNR 52%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.7%, PNR 50%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.89%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.16%, PNR 80%

July is positive roughly half the time for the C Fund, but the positive years outweigh the negative years in terms of CAGR by quite a bit. The longest stretch of negative July returns was 1998 – 2002, and roughly half of all negative returns were smaller than -1% losses. Of the 15 positive years, 12 of them were 2.1% or better. Having a slightly better than 50/50 shot of having a month return over 1% CAGR over the long term makes July a toss-up month that each investor must carefully consider. In the long run you come out ahead if you take the bet, but you have to weather the ups and downs. The 2016 return was 3.69%.

The best years were in 1989 (8.83%), 1997 (7.94%) and 2009 (7.58%). The worst years were 2002 (-7.7%), 1996 (-4.39%) and 2004 (-3.24%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.17%, PNR 45%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.28%, PNR 35%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.32%, PNR 40%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.35%, PNR 40%

The S Fund isn’t so hot in July. There’s some good years, but the bad years outweigh them enough to make the S Fund not very attractive in July. The 2016 return was 5.4%

The best years were 2009 (8.66%), 2010 (7.0%) and 1997 / 2013 (tied at 6.88%). The worst years were 2002 (-9.93%), 1996 (-7.51%) and 1998 (-5.66%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.33%, PNR 66%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.68%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.27%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.17%, PNR 80%

The I Fund has better CAGR and PNR than the C Fund in July, and is the best performer of all the Funds in July. It’s because of this reason that some of the Mixes use the I Fund in July, and others use C. The more conservative ones use F. The 2016 return was 5.07%.

The best years were 1989 (12.45%), 2010 (10.78%), and 2009 (9.74%). The worst years were 2002 (-9.99%), 2000 (-4.29%), and 2004 (-3.76%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for July 2017.

TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund. (This is the formula I follow with my money, the best mix that doesn’t use the I Fund.)
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the I Fund
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the C Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the I Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the the G Fund.
G All Year, S In Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

[OkieTSPer]

Thanks for the update.

[mmmmmbeer]

Always good Aitrus.

[tmj100]

Just a heads up to anyone following the tmj100 account. I have not been adjusting the account to follow much of any pattern for about 9 months as I was sidelined with life events. The Timboslice pattern that this is named after has been an outstanding pattern to follow, however, it may not be what the tmj100 account will be doing in the future as I will be using the account for experimental patterns. I real life I am following 6 strategies at the same time. Each one has a different inspiration and source of key factors. The new Daily Seasonal patterns look very interesting to me, but I am not sure I am disciplined enough to ensure I make the moves on the required days. I may use it for turn of the month trigger points.

Hopefully, at some point in the future I will be able to contribute some multi year strategies that are fleshed out enough that there can be solid confidence in them and not just wild book guesses on my part.

To all the great folks that contribute their time and knowledge on this site -- I thank you all.

[Aitrus]

Hey everybody. I regret that this post on the results from June is so overdue. I have been absolutely slammed at work and at home this month, and some things had to be put on the back burner for a bit. This was one of them.

In return, my wife is very happy and satisfied with the remodeled bathrooms (both of them, down to the studs and back out again) and the repurposed closet. My Guard unit is glad I showed up for drill sober and shaved. And my boss seems to be happy that I am ably handling everything thrown at me right as the new building commander is watching everything like a hawk. Not to mention the recent TSPCenter.com shenanigans, which are more of a minor annoyance than anything, really. Hopefully, the worst of this summer's busywork is behind me, and I can get back to the regular updates.

Seasonal Strategy Results for June 2017

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.19%, 1.17% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Jun Since 1988 CAGR = 0.41%
Jun 20 year CAGR = 0.31%
Jun 10 year CAGR = 0.22%
Jun 5 year CAGR = 0.17%

June is normally a so-so month for the G Fund. This year’s return was a little above average, but not by much. The G Fund is now ahead of 2016’s annual YTD return by 0.24% 2016’s June return was 0.15%

F Fund: -0.09%, 2.48% YTD
Jun Since 1988 CAGR = 0.61%, PNR 67%
Jun 20 year CAGR = 0.28%, PNR 60%
Jun 10 year CAGR = 0.10%, PNR 50%
Jun 5 year CAGR = -0.16%, PNR 40%

This month’s return was below average. 2016’s return was 1.80%.

C Fund: 0.62%, 9.35% YTD
Jun Since 1988 CAGR = -0.26%, PNR 57%
Jun 20 year CAGR = -0.42%, PNR 60%
Jun 10 year CAGR = -1.19%, PNR 50%
Jun 5 year CAGR = -0.07%, PNR 60%

June is normally a bad month for the C Fund, but this year’s return was positive. 2016’s return was 0.62%.

Thus far in the year the C Fund has had nothing but positive months, a trend which started in Nov 16. Other years that have had all positive months from Jan through June were:

1995: 17.4% by the end of May, 37.39% for the year, run ended in Oct (-0.36% - the only negative month that year)
1996: 9.65% by the end of May, 22.85% for the year, run ended in Jul (-4.39%)

What this tells me is that, historically speaking, there’s a very good chance the C Fund isn’t on a bubble and will finish the year well into the green. We might have a drop in the next few months, but it would have to be a pretty big one to erase all the gains for the year thus far, plus overcome any gains to be made during the normally strong Oct – Dec months.

S Fund: 2.33%, 7.41% YTD
Jun Since 1988 CAGR = 0.37%, PNR 57%
Jun 20 year CAGR = 0.46%, PNR 60%
Jun 10 year CAGR = -0.87%, PNR 40%
Jun 5 year CAGR = 0.97%, PNR 40%

The S Fund did surprisingly well in June this year. June is normally an uninspiring month for mid and small caps. 2016’s return was -0.13%.

I Fund: -0.18%, 14.09% YTD
Jun Since 1988 CAGR = -0.72%, PNR 43%
Jun 20 year CAGR = -0.33%, PNR 50%
Jun 10 year CAGR = -1.38%, PNR 20%
Jun 5 year CAGR = -1.63%, PNR 20%

The I Fund has been having a great year so far, but June put at least a speed bump in the way to slow things down a little. June is normally a pretty bad month, and this year was no exception. 2016’s return was -3.33%

Currently Tracked Seasonal StrategiesTSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Jun (-0.09%), 2.91% YTD
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: F Fund in Jun (-0.09%), 5.24% YTD (This is the one I follow with my personal TSP account)
gclapper’s M3 Mix: F Fund in Jun (-0.09%), 6.89% YTD
tjm100’s Mix: F Fund in Jun (-0.09%), 8.26% YTD
Boltman's Mix: F Fund in Jun (-0.09%), 1.14% YTD
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in Jun (0.19%), 7.57% YTD
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Jun (0.19%), 1.17% YTD

Everybody took a small hit due to being in the F Fund in June. Sell in May and G all year were snickering as they zoomed by everybody’s June returns with their snail’s pace of 0.19%. tmj100’s Mix still leads the pack.

[Aitrus]

For August 2017
Last chance to move: Monday, 31 July before noon EST
For this coming August, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.42%
Last 20 years: 0.33%
Last 10 years: 0.22%
Last 5 years: 0.16%

August is historically a so-so month for the G Fund. The 2016 return was 0.13%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.66%, PNR 69%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.79%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.64%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.10%, PNR 40%

August is one of the F Fund’s better months. Not a top performer, but respectable. The last few years haven’t been kind, but from 2004 – 2012 we saw no negative returns at all. The F Fund has had 3 negative years in the last 5 years, and that’s happened only once before in the late ‘90s. We’re due for a solid positive August return.

The best years were 1991 (2.12%), 2004 (1.88%) and 1993 (1.72%). The worst years were 1989 (-1.48%), 1990 (-1.42%) and 1997 (-0.86%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.82%, PNR 59%
Last 20 years: CAGR -1.2%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.65%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.57%, PNR 60%

August is arguably the worst month of the year for the C Fund. June is a close second, but the CAGRs are much worse over the long term in August while the PNRs are about the same across all the timeframes.

The best years were 2000 (6.19%), 1994 (4.11%) and 2014 (4.01%). The worst years were 1998 (-14.74%), 1990 (-8.65%) and 2001 (-6.27%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.14%, PNR 62%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.62%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.65%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.08%, PNR 60%

The S Fund has it bad in August, just not as bad as the C Fund. If you’re betting the odds, there’s better places to be than stocks in August.

The best years were 2000 (11.16%), 2014 (4.98%) and 1994 (4.77%). The worst years were 1998 (-19.38%), 1990 (-10.05%) and 2011 (-8.12%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -1.62%, PNR 45%
Last 20 years: CAGR -1.62%, PNR 45%
Last 10 years: CAGR -1.85%, PNR 30%
Last 5 years: CAGR -1.15%, PNR 40%

August is without question the worst month of the year for the I Fund. Nothing more need be said.

The best years were 1992 (6.09%), 1993 (5.27%), and 2009 (4.87%). The worst years were 1998 (-12.51%), 1990 (-9.84%), and 2011 (-9.03%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for June 2017.

TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund. (This is the formula I follow with my money, the best mix that doesn’t use the I Fund.)
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the F Fund
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the the G Fund.
G All Year, S In Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

[Midway]

Aitrus,
Have you looked at how the individual funds have behaved over the years per month. For instance, the F-fund has a CAGR of .66 for August in your latest post, but back in 2014 it was .70 . I was just wondering if this was a consistent decline or it has stayed within a certain range.
This is related to a previous thread that hinted of a timing shift of the markets. Instead of sell in May, will we eventually be selling in June and staying away? Kinda kills the rhyme though.

[mmmmmbeer]

Aitrus,
Have you looked at how the individual funds have behaved over the years per month. For instance, the F-fund has a CAGR of .66 for August in your latest post, but back in 2014 it was .70 . I was just wondering if this was a consistent decline or it has stayed within a certain range.
This is related to a previous thread that hinted of a timing shift of the markets. Instead of sell in May, will we eventually be selling in June and staying away? Kinda kills the rhyme though.

If you ask him really nicely... he has the Excel workbooks that have all the funds and the seasonals back to 1988, CAGR's and the like for them all. It's pretty danged impressive. I had him send it to me, and man I look at that thing with the core fund returns all the time. I have my tracker for how I've done in there as well.

[Midway]

I was hoping to get him to do it because I'm really lazy. I also have zero experience with Excel. Oh well, gotta learn somewhere! Aitrus, pm on the way.

[Aitrus]

Seasonal Strategy Results for July 2017

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.19%, 1.36% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Jul Since 1988 CAGR = 0.43%
Jul 20 year CAGR = 0.33%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 0.21%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 0.18%

July is normally the best month of the year for the G Fund. The G Fund is now ahead of 2016’s YTD return by 0.3%. 2016’s July return was 0.13%

F Fund: 0.43%, 2.92% YTD
Jul Since 1988 CAGR = 0.75%, PNR 77%
Jul 20 year CAGR = 0.56%, PNR 75%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 0.74%, PNR 80%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 0.35%, PNR 80%

This month the F Fund had a positive, but slightly below average, return. July is usually a really good month for the F Fund, but the past 5 years haven’t been kind as all of those years have been below the long-term average return. 2016’s return was 0.64%.

C Fund: 2.05%, 11.59% YTD
Jul Since 1988 CAGR = 1.14%, PNR 53%
Jul 20 year CAGR = 0.42%, PNR 50%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 2.42%, PNR 70%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 2.29%, PNR 80%

July is a toss-up month for the C Fund. The long-term PNR is around the 50% mark, but the average CAGR is good. This means that the up years are high enough to make up for the down years, and then some.

Thus far in the year the C Fund has had nothing but positive months, a trend which started in Nov 16. Only one other years had all positive months from Jan through July were:

1995: 21.92% by the end of July, 37.39% for the year, run ended in Oct (-0.36% - the only negative month that year)

S Fund: 1.11%, 8.61% YTD
Jul Since 1988 CAGR = 0.20%, PNR 47%
Jul 20 year CAGR = -0.56%, PNR 35%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 1.91%, PNR 50%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 1.7%, PNR 60%

July isn’t known to be a strong month for the S Fund, but this year was above average. The PNRs are pretty low, and the positive years barely make up for the negative ones in the long run. 2016’s return was 5.4%.

I Fund: 2.88%, 17.38% YTD
Jul Since 1988 CAGR = 1.39%, PNR 67%
Jul 20 year CAGR = 0.75%, PNR 60%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 2.81%, PNR 70%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 2.64%, PNR 80%

The I Fund is historically the best performer in July, and this year was no different. This month’s return was comfortably above average. 2016’s return was 5.07%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Jul (0.43%), 3.35% YTD
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in Jul (2.05%), 7.39% YTD (This is the one I follow with my personal TSP account)
gclapper’s M3 Mix: I Fund in Jul (2.88%), 9.97% YTD
tmj100’s Mix: C Fund in Jul (2.05%), 10.48% YTD
Boltman's Mix: I Fund in Jul (2.88%), 4.06% YTD
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in Jul (0.19%), 7.78% YTD
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Jul (0.19%), 1.36% YTD

All the Mixes experienced gains this July, some more than others. One has broached the double-digit mark, and hopes to stay above it for the rest of the year. Another is close, and two others have a realistic chance of reaching at least 10% by the end of the year. If historical trends remain constant, then somewhere above 10% is likely for the Jahby’s, gclapper’s, tmj100’s and Sell in May Mixes. With a little luck, all of these Mixes will reach at least 12%, which is what many followers of Seasonal Strategies have as an annual goal for their TSP accounts.