Seasonal Musings 2017

[GoWest]

Great info as always. Thanks.

[felix]

And be sure to look into the daily thread as well. Those boys have been killing it!

I've been looking into this myself. Very interesting indeed.

[cruisin]

Thanks for the great work and sharing.

[cswift01]

Thanks, guys. Much appreciated.

Book update: I'm on the final round of revisions and updates. I expect to be done by the end of the month. Then comes the publishing decision - whether to e-publish myself, or to go with a company that has good editing, cover/layout designers on staff, and better promotion chops than I.

The first means that I get the book out now, but to a limited audience. The second means a better end product, but will probably take a while.

Dear Aitrus,

This depends on what you want. If you e-publish then things go much quicker (and cheaper) for you, if you do both (which I'm assuming would be the 2nd choice) then you would lose royalties, etc. Do you plan to build upon this book or will you be writing a series? If you go the series route, then i would definitely suggest the 2nd choice. If not, then it's entirely dependent on your interests.

Either way, I'm sure that it'll be satisfying.

Best,

Me

[cruisin]

Really great info. Thank to everyone.

[karlabug]

Recently I started to watch the information on "TSP Seasonal Calculator". I have been very pleased with the information! THANK YOU!!!! However, I do have a question regarding moving between funds. We are only allowed 2 fund moves per month. In the TSP Seasonal Calculator it shows for the month of September 2017 3 fund moves. Are we able to do three moves? Maybe I am overthinking this. It would not be the first time that I confuse myself!!:D

[maui21ice]

In the TSP Seasonal Calculator it shows for the month of September 2017 3 fund moves. Are we able to do three moves? Maybe I am overthinking this. It would not be the first time that I confuse myself!!:D

If your 3rd move for the month is back to the G-fund, then it is allowed. The G-fund move is like a free 3rd move back when you've already used up your first 2 between the C,S,I, and F along with L-Fund moves. So G for your 3rd is like a freebie.

[repinda808]

Recently I started to watch the information on "TSP Seasonal Calculator". I have been very pleased with the information! THANK YOU!!!! However, I do have a question regarding moving between funds. We are only allowed 2 fund moves per month. In the TSP Seasonal Calculator it shows for the month of September 2017 3 fund moves. Are we able to do three moves? Maybe I am overthinking this. It would not be the first time that I confuse myself!!:D

To confuse you even more, any move after your 2 IFTs in the month to the G fund is allowed. There was once a thread that showed how you could basically do an IFT to the G fund every day of the month after your 1st 2 moves were done.

[moonbeam]

More great info. Thanks to all.

[bad70nova]

Come on F fund we need a positive day, still up in the seasonal, but losing ground. Keep telling myself stick to the plan don't move so sticking to it I am sure it will be positive for the Oct move.

[Octjan2]

For those of you concerned about the F fund because of the possibility of interest rates rising over the coming years, the daily strategy #13501 is exactly the same as the #7980 except it goes to the G fund instead of the F fund. It has a mean return of 33.56%, not much lower than the 35.90% of the 7980.

[bassinger]

Stick with your plan.

[moonbeam]

Good advice.

[Aitrus]

For October 2017
Last chance to move: Friday, 29 September before noon EST
For this coming October, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.41%
Last 20 years: 0.32%
Last 10 years: 0.21%
Last 5 years: 0.16%

October is historically a so-so month for the G Fund. The 2016 return was 0.13%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.45%, PNR 72%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.21%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.07%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.26%, PNR 80%

October is a decent month for the F Fund. Not stellar, but not terrible either.

The best years were 1989 (2.45%), 1996 (2.21%) and 2001 (2.12%). The worst years were 2008 (-2.4%), 1992 (-1.3%) and 2003 (-1.0%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.52%, PNR 66%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.8%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.67%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 2.29%, PNR 60%

Despite containing the worst single-month return for all of the C Fund’s history, october is close to meeting the “good” standard for the C Fund. It has good CAGR over the long term, but the PNR could be better.

The best years were 2011 (10.93%), 2002 (8.77%) and 2015 (8.45%). The worst years were 2008 (-16.83%), 1997 (-3.38%) and 1989 (-2.33%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.37%, PNR 59%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.82%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.17%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.44%, PNR 60%

The S Fund isn’t so hot in October. October holds the all-time worst return for the S Fund. This sector of the market really starts hitting its stride in November.

The best years were 2011 (14.09%), 2003 (7.65%) and 1998 (5.68%). The worst years were 2008 (-20.99%), 2000 (-8.17%) and 2009 (-5.51%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.28%, PNR 62%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.05%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.02%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.68%, PNR 60%

The I Fund doesn’t do too poorly in October. It’s not the best month by a long shot, but it’s not consistently negative either. The numbers say that it wins out in the long run, but he C Fund is a better bet if you want to be exposed to stocks in October.

The best years were 1990 (15.4%), 1998 (10.28%), and 2011 (9.48%). The worst years were 2008 (-20.59%), 1997 (-7.81%), and 1992 (-5.4%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for October 2017.

TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund. (This is the formula I follow with my money, the best Mix that doesn’t use the I Fund.)
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the C Fund
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the C Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the C Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Move the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

[Aitrus]

Seasonal Strategy Results for September 2017
Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.17%, 1.72% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Sep Since 1988 CAGR = 0.40%
Sep 20 year CAGR = 0.30%
Sep 10 year CAGR = 0.19%
Sep 5 year CAGR = 0.17%

September is normally an ok month for the G Fund. This year was about normal compared to the 5 and 10 year averages, but still significantly behind the long-term average. The G Fund is now ahead of 2016’s YTD return by 0.39%. 2016’s return was 0.13%

F Fund: -0.48%, 3.36% YTD
Sep Since 1988 CAGR = 0.70%, PNR 80%
Sep 20 year CAGR = 0.59%, PNR 75%
Sep 10 year CAGR = 0.14%, PNR 60%
Sep 5 year CAGR = 0.13%, PNR 40%

This month the F Fund had a below average return. This is only the 6th negative September since 1988 for the F Fund. September remains a good bet for the F Fund. 2016’s return was -0.04%.

C Fund: 2.06%, 14.23% YTD
Sep Since 1988 CAGR = -0.19%, PNR 53%
Sep 20 year CAGR = -0.78%, PNR 55%
Sep 10 year CAGR = -0.07%, PNR 60%
Sep 5 year CAGR = 0.25%, PNR 60%

September is historically a pretty bad month of the year for the C Fund, but it managed an above average return this year. This year’s positive return doesn’t do very much to diminish that trend. 2016’s return was 0.02%.

Thus far in the year the C Fund has had nothing but positive months, a trend which started in Nov 16. Only one other year had all positive months from Jan through Sep. This was:

1995: 29.61% by the end of September, 37.39% for the year, run ended in Oct (-0.36% - the only negative month that year)

S Fund: 4.26%, 12.77% YTD
Sep Since 1988 CAGR = 0.00%, PNR 63%
Sep 20 year CAGR = -0.69%, PNR 55%
Sep 10 year CAGR = -0.25%, PNR 60%
Sep 5 year CAGR = -0.13%, PNR 60%

The S Fund had a very good return this month, which is much higher than average for this time of the year. This year’s return was the 7th highest since 1988. 2016’s return was 0.90%.

I Fund: 2.52%, 20.30% YTD
Sep Since 1988 CAGR = -0.71%, PNR 60%
Sep 20 year CAGR = -1.08%, PNR 60%
Sep 10 year CAGR = -0.64%, PNR 60%
Sep 5 year CAGR = 0.37%, PNR 60%

The I Fund historically does badly in September. This year’s return was respectably above average. 2016’s return was 1.24%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Sep (-0.48%), 3.79% YTD
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: F Fund in Sep (-0.48%), 7.85% YTD (This is the one I follow with my personal TSP account)
gclapper’s M3 Mix: F Fund in Sep (-0.48%), 10.44% YTD
tmj100’s Mix: F Fund in Sep (-0.48%), 10.95% YTD
Boltman's Mix: F Fund in Sep (-0.48%), 4.5% YTD
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in Sep (0.17%), 8.17% YTD
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Sep (0.17%), 1.72% YTD

All of the main Mixes were in the F Fund this month, so everybody took a hit. Now begins the sprint to the finish line, with each Mix taking a different approach to the last 3 months of the year. It’ll be interesting to see who can breach, and stay above, the double-digit mark for this year.

TSPCenter: F-C-S
Jahbulon’s: C-C-S
gclapper’s: C-C-S
tmj100’s: C-S-S
Boltman’s: C-S-I
Sell in May: C-C-C
G all Year: G-G-S