Seasonal Musings 2017

[plang926]

Good morning,

I have a couple of questions; one of them for sure is on topic, one of them partially on topic, and I don't remember the third one so I'll try to find the appropriate thread when I remember.

The first question: I am comparing the Jahbulon with the gclapper monthly strategy and the only difference is the investment in the I fund for two of the months (April and July) in the gclapper whereas Jahbulon is in the C fund for those months. The gclapper consistently shows better CAGR and PNR based on what is posted in here (on the 1st page). However, as noted in one of the comments, there were a couple of years rough for the I fund because if Italy and Greece. With the I fund relying largely on Europe and East Asia, I would have to wonder if the gclapper is the better route for the upcoming year or few years. I have not look in depth at the numbers but I'm hearing the Japan is struggling. Right now it is dropping even more because of Korea threats but my understanding is that Japan was struggling anyway. Europe, however, is not looking pretty either. Because of several socio-political issues going on in Europe, I am wondering how well the European economy as a whole is going to hold up. With this in mind, I am almost led back to the Jahbulon as the better approach. Anyone have any thoughts on European stability (in general), Japan's struggles (especially, but not limited to, in light of issues with Kim Jong Psychopath), the influence on the I fund and therefore preference over Jahbulon or Gclapper?

Question 2: I am also debating on the daily seasonal strategy a little bit (edging toward this one right now). I didn't see anything on the TSP website on it but, is there a limit to how many IFT's that can be done in a month? Or, is there a charge after a certain number of IFT's?

Thanks!

[Jones44]

Question 2: I am also debating on the daily seasonal strategy a little bit (edging toward this one right now). I didn't see anything on the TSP website on it but, is there a limit to how many IFT's that can be done in a month? Or, is there a charge after a certain number of IFT's?

Thanks!

You can make two IFT's a month and a third trade only to G.

[cashworth]

plang I think its possible to decide on a yearly basis whether to use the I fund or not. Make April and July "option" months

or do a 50/50 split...

[evilanne]

There is no charge for any IFT. All of the seasonal strategies go 100% to designated fund.

The first 2 IFTs in a month can go into any fund. After the 1st 2 IFTs, as long as you are not 100% in the G Fund, you could actually make an IFT every day as long as you increase the percentage in the G Fund.

[mmmmmbeer]

I see the second question was already answered so I'll speak a little to the 1st.

Of course the I fund is mich more volitile because of the current upheaval in terrorist activity in Europe, along with the Brexit, and countries bankruptcy problems, but thats only part of it. The I fund itself has a very narrow scope in the foreign markets for half of its value and the rest is foreign currencies.

This narrow scope makes it much more vulnerable to mood swings that go along with terror and economic events. There is a measure thats either still in development or being put into place to change the makeup of the I fund to greatly diversify its scope into a greater number of businesses and markets, which will hopefully stabilize the fund to be a bit more reliable.

It's for that reason Aitrus and others are very leary of the I fund imho.

[plang926]

Thanks for the info guys!

[Aitrus]

plang926, mmmbeer is mostly right with regards to my opinion of the I Fund.

It's very limited in scope, and the countries it's mostly invested in are either experimenting with their currency (Eurozone countries), or the economy has been hurting for many years (Japan). I also understand the American economy much more thoroughly than I do foreign markets. Foreign markets are also more subject to manipulation, takeover, or direct control by their respective governments. Given all those uncertainties, I don't like the I Fund. Also, the I Fund has a Since 1988 CAGR of around 4%, so that alone tells me that it's not a great performer. A few individual months, yes, but not as a whole index across the year.

Yes, gclapper's Mix does perform better by about 1% per year because it uses the I Fund for two months. However, I am satisfied with the performance of Jahbulon's Mix so I don't mind exchanging the 1% for sleeping well at night. Sleeping well knowing that I'm averaging 16+% or losing sleep and getting 17+% is an easy choice for me.

[TomCollins]

Great stuff.

[부산釜山]

Agree.

[Aitrus]

For September 2017
Last chance to move: Thursday, 31 August before noon EST
For this coming September, the individual Funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.41%
Last 20 years: 0.32%
Last 10 years: 0.21%
Last 5 years: 0.16%

September is historically a so-so month for the G Fund. The 2016 return was 0.13%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.74%, PNR 83%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.69%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.27%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.25%, PNR 60%

September is the one of the best months of the year for the F Fund. It has the best PNR of the year, and the CAGR is pretty good.

The best years were 2003 (2.68%), 1998 (2.36%) and 1988 (2.07%). The worst years were 1994 (-1.47%), 2008 (-1.31%) and 2005 (-1.03%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.27%, PNR 52%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.62%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.10%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.35%, PNR 60%

September is a bad month for the C Fund. Not the worst, but definitely in the top three of the worst months of the year.

The best years were 2010 (8.92%), 1998 (6.33%) and 1996 (5.60%). The worst years were 2002 (-10.87%), 2008 (-8.94%) and 2001 (-8.05%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.14%, PNR 62%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.56%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.37%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.21%, PNR 60%

The S Fund is no good in September. The PNRs are better than even, but the S Fund has had some real doozies over the years to overcome those PNRs. Better to leave this one alone.

The best years were 2010 (11.47%), 1998 (7.22%) and 1997 (6.93%). The worst years were 2001 (-12.50%), 2011 (-10.73%) and 2008 (-10.32%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.82%, PNR 59%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.94%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.37%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.45%, PNR 60%

Just like the other stock Funds, the I Fund is not the place to be in September, according to the data.

The best years were 2010 (9.81%), 2013 (7.41%), and 1991 (5.49%). The worst years were 1990 (-14.08%), 2008 (-12.31%), and 2002 (-10.75%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for September 2017.

TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund. (This is the formula I follow with my money, the best mix that doesn’t use the I Fund.)
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Remain in the F Fund
tmj100’s Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the the G Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

[Midway]

Great info as always. Thanks!

[evilanne]

Thank you Aitrus! Any idea what is going on with the F Fund? AGG was up .15% but F Fund increase was much lower today 0.0757% Usually F, C & S are much closer to indexes.

[12ozCurls]

Great stuff, thanks.

[Aitrus]

Thank you Aitrus! Any idea what is going on with the F Fund? AGG was up .15% but F Fund increase was much lower today 0.0757% Usually F, C & S are much closer to indexes.

Not sure the reason for the difference yesterday, nor do I have anything on which to base a conjecture.

[Dow100k]

As others have said before...many thanks.