Seasonal Musings 2017

[Capitalism]

It's too complicated for me. All I know is I love seeing those double digit earnings.

[MrSnrub]

For those interested, I figured out the PIP algorithm and explained it in this post.

[Qball]

For those interested, I figured out the PIP algorithm and explained it in this post.

Thanks for the link, but that waaaaaay above my intelligence level. LOL.

[KennyW]

LOL...same here.

[Aitrus]

For December 2017
Last chance to move: Thursday, 30 November before noon EST
For this coming December, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.42%
Last 20 years: 0.33%
Last 10 years: 0.21%
Last 5 years: 0.16%

December is historically one of the better months for the G Fund. Not the best month, but solidly in the top 3 or 4. The 2016 return was 0.20%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.56%, PNR 69%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.41%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.17%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.12%, PNR 40%

If November is the second worst month of the year, December is probably third worst month for the F Fund.

The best years were 2008 (3.73%), 1991 (2.96%) and 2002 (2.08%). The worst years were 2009 (-1.55%), 2010 (-1.05%) and 1996 (-0.93%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.85%, PNR 83%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.59%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.35%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.71%, PNR 60%

December is hands down the best month of the year for the C Fund. Negative only 5 years in total, two of them in the last decade (2014 / 2015). Overall, a good choice for this time of year.

The best years were 1991 (11.41%), 2010 (6.68%) and 1999 (5.90%). The worst years were 2002 (-5.85%), 1996 (-1.97%) and 2015 (-1.57%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 3.00%, PNR 86%
Last 20 years: CAGR 2.99%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.22%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.87%, PNR 80%

It’s no secret that I love the S Fund in December. Negative only 4 times since 1988, with two of those losses being -0.40% or smaller. It has an average CAGR that is better than what the G Fund gets all year long nowadays. The F Fund doesn’t have a PNR at any point in the year that is as good as the S Fund’s in December. It’s the most reliable thing outside the G Fund in terms of reliable returns. I consider it to be the safest bet all year long.

The best years were 1999 (13.78%), 1991 (9.90%) and 1998 (8.46%). The worst years were 2002 (-4.32%), 2015 (-3.91%) and 2007 (-0.40%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 2.38%, PNR 79%
Last 20 years: CAGR 2.41%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.49%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.51%, PNR 60%

The I Fund is close to on par with the C Fund in December. A little bit better CAGR, a little bit worse PNR. It’s the second best month of the year for this Fund.

The best years were 2004 (6.16%), 1988 (5.85%), and 1998 (5.0%). The worst years were 1993 (-8.86%), 2008 (-6.72%), and 1990 (-6.05%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for December 2017.

TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the S Fund.
Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the S Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the S Fund
tmj100’s Mix: Remain in the S Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the I Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Move to the S Fund.

[Midway]

I always love these summaries. They usually make me rethink my strategies (trust but verify). Should the "G all Year, S in Dec" go to S or G?

[Aitrus]

Thanks, Midway. Good catch.

[OkieTSPer]

Thanks for the update.

[DSS]

Appreciate the update. This is the only topic I subscribe to.

[Challeng71]

Great summary! Thank you.

[Aitrus]

Seasonal Strategy Results for November 2017

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund: 0.19%, 2.11% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Nov Since 1988 CAGR = 0.38%
Nov 20 year CAGR = 0.28%
Nov 10 year CAGR = 0.19%
Nov 5 year CAGR = 0.17%

November is normally one of the worst months for the G Fund. This year’s return was the highest since 2009’s return of 0.26%. 2016’s return was 0.16%

F Fund: -0.11%, 3.32% YTD
Nov Since 1988 CAGR = 0.36%, PNR 60%
Nov 20 year CAGR = 0.27%, PNR 55%
Nov 10 year CAGR = 0.18%, PNR 50%
Nov 5 year CAGR = -0.47%, PNR 20%

November is now fighting with March as the worst month of the year for the F Fund. Out of the last 5 years, 4 have had negative returns. 2016’s return was -2.35%.

C Fund: 3.07%, 20.48% YTD
Nov Since 1988 CAGR = 1.61%, PNR 73%
Nov 20 year CAGR = 1.53%, PNR 80%
Nov 10 year CAGR = 1.15%, PNR 80%
Nov 5 year CAGR = 2.56%, PNR 100%

This month was a good one for the C Fund. The return was significantly above both long term and short term averages. 2016’s return was 3.71%.

Thus far in the year the C Fund has had nothing but positive months, a trend which started in Nov 16. Except for the G Fund (which never has a down month), the C Fund now holds the record for most positive months in a row. The previous record was held by both the C and S Funds in 1995, which ran positive from Dec 1994 – Sep 1995. October that year saw a -0.36% return for the C Fund, and then the C Fund continued to be positive until Jun 1996. The S Fund had a -2.68% return in October, then it ran positive until May 1996.

Here’s to hoping that history repeats itself in this case.

S Fund: 2.90%, 17.67% YTD
Nov Since 1988 CAGR = 1.46%, PNR 73%
Nov 20 year CAGR = 1.71%, PNR 80%
Nov 10 year CAGR = 1.20%, PNR 70%
Nov 5 year CAGR = 3.26%, PNR 100%

November was a pretty respectable month for the S Fund. November remains the second best month of the year for this sector of the market. 2016’s return was 7.95%.

I Fund: 1.06%, 23.45% YTD
Nov Since 1988 CAGR = 0.11%, PNR 60%
Nov 20 year CAGR = 0.62%, PNR 65%
Nov 10 year CAGR = -0.94%, PNR 50%
Nov 5 year CAGR = -0.11%, PNR 60%

This year the I fund did above average in November. It doesn’t do much for the overall returns, but still, those in the I Fund enjoyed a bump to their returns. 2016’s return was -1.99%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: C Fund in Nov (3.07%), 7.05% YTD
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in Nov (3.07%), 13.75% YTD
gclapper’s M3 Mix: C Fund in Nov (3.07%), 16.48% YTD
tmj100’s Mix: S Fund in Nov (2.9%), 16.83% YTD
Boltman's Mix: S Fund in Nov (2.9%), 10.04% YTD
Sell in May and Go Away: C Fund in Nov (3.07%), 14.08% YTD
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Nov (0.19%), 2.11% YTD

Everybody had a good bump this month. How much depended on whether the Mix was in the C or S Fund. Now, all but two Mixes are in the ’17 Double Digit Club: TSPCenter.com’s Default and G All Year. If the S Fund has solid December as per historical norms it would put TSPCenter over the top, and would give those retirees following G All Year a nice bit of padding to hedge against inflation.

Here’s what each Mix is doing for December:
TSPCenter: S
Jahbulon’s: S
gclapper’s: S
tmj100’s: S
Boltman’s: I
Sell in May: C
G all Year: S

[OkieTSPer]

Thanks for the update.

[Scarfinger]

Thanks for the update. Much appreciated!

[Aitrus]

For January 2018
Last chance to move: Friday, 29 December before noon EST
For this coming January, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.42%
Last 20 years: 0.30%
Last 10 years: 0.20%
Last 5 years: 0.20%

January is a decent month for the G Fund. A bit on the high side of the bell curve for the G Fund’s typical range of performance. The 2017 return was 0.20%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.65%, PNR 80%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.70%, PNR 85%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.83%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.97%, PNR 80%

January is hands down the best month of the year for the F Fund. Not much more to be said.

The best years were 2015 (2.13%), 1995 (1.98%) and 1993 (1.88%). The worst years were 1990 (-1.38%), 1992 (-1.35%) and 2009 (-0.86%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.16%, PNR 57%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.68%, PNR 50%
Last 10 years: CAGR -1.64%, PNR 40%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.94%, PNR 40%

Based on history, investors are well advised to avoid the C Fund in January. It’s the 4th worst month of the year for large cap stocks.

The best years were 1989 (7.14%), 1997 (6.22%) and 2013 (5.18%). The worst years were 2009 (-8.41%), 1990 (-6.59%) and 2008 (-5.98%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.56%, PNR 60%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.18%, PNR 45%
Last 10 years: CAGR -1.29%, PNR 40%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.81%, PNR 40%

At one point, the S Fund was so-so in the annual lineup. The ‘90s were a good time for the S Fund, when 1991 – 1997 was a nice long run of positive gains, but the last decade hasn’t been kind. Taken all into account, there are more reliable options available for monthly seasonal investors.

The best years were 2012 (7.59%), 2013 (6.96%) and 2006 (6.7%). The worst years were 2016 (-8.72%), 1990 (-8.53%) and 2009 (-8.19%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.87%, PNR 47%
Last 20 years: CAGR -1.33%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR -2.06%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.3%, PNR 60%

January is arguably the second worst month of the year for the I Fund.

The best years were 1994 (8.33%), 2006 (6.14%), and 2012 (5.36%). The worst years were 2009 (-11.93%), 2008 (-8.52%), and 2000 (-6.44%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for January 2018.

Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the F Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Move to the G Fund.

Time for another year! Good luck everybody!

[Snapdragon]

Thank you Aitrus