Euphoria in the Stock Market

[Sad Al]

I am always looking for the next big market crash. Burned once, twice shy. Warren Buffet sees good times ahead, so who am I to have the contrary view? I follow TSP Center players with a good track record, and they've given me no reason to question the current bull market. Still, I can't help but think the stock market is priced for perfection, bought on anticipation, and euphoria abounds. Don't we always look for confirmation of our bias? Here's mine.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4048406 ... ocks?ifp=0

[evilanne]

Not sure what you are confirming with that article

[Snapdragon]

I would use caution the second half of the year, Sell in May and go away. That's my thinking

[btmartin]

It was painful doing the seasonal strategy the last couple of weeks, that's for sure...

[marine234]

I don't think many of the seasonal mixes are going to work out because Trump is doing things that no other President has done before in such a short time i office for good and bad. This may be an interesting year.

[Scarfinger]

Most of the seasonal strategies are up 4.5% so far? Seems pretty good to me.

[cswift01]

I would use caution the second half of the year, Sell in May and go away. That's my thinking

I've been wondering if things would be different this year (than sell in May). If you look at the data from last year (https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/Fun ... turns.html) it would seem that the only 2 bad months for the C and S were in June and October.

Most of us are looking at Trump's effect on the market, but I'm wondering if maybe the driver is something else (with Trump having some influence too). We had a very rough time in 2007-9. That's less than 10 years ago! Our economy is really flourishing now. Maybe this is primarily a rebirth of the economy with Trump pushing in the background? If this is the case, maybe things will look different this year too?

I am still supporting the retreat from the market in certain months, such as June, but I'm wondering the merits of framing the present stock rally from something other than Trump...

Me

[ArrieS]

IMO,

All of this stock market action is related to the anticipation of what a Republican Congress and Republican Presidents will do. But they haven't done anything. So if the President and Congress fail to act, than it all goes away.