State of the Union market reaction

[Tim88M]

While technically not a state of the union address, tonight's speech is a joint session so it meets criteria. Historically speaking, since 1961 the next days DJIA has produced a negative return 50.87% of the time(29/57) and averaged a -.09% return following a presidential SOU address. There has never been an increase of greater than 2% in that time(only 4 times above 1%), and only twice has there been an decrease of over 2%(2016 & 2000).

[USA]

Can't argue with the facts Tim88. But then again there has never been a President like Donald Trump before either. So I'd say only time will tell.

[Tim88M]

While technically not a state of the union address, tonight's speech is a joint session so it meets criteria. Historically speaking, since 1961 the next days DJIA has produced a negative return 50.87% of the time(29/57) and averaged a -.09% return following a presidential SOU address. There has never been an increase of greater than 2% in that time(only 4 times above 1%), and only twice has there been an decrease of over 2%(2016 & 2000).

A follow up to this: Since Kennedy, the first time a president gives an address 80% of the time the following day is negative(avg -.71%). Only Johnson and Ford had positive following day returns.

[Kryptonite]

Fun stats, but I don't pay attention to the market reactions to these type of events.

[hytid]

Whatever happens will surely be tremendous.

[USA]

Whatever happens will surely be tremendous.

YUGE!

[Navig8tor]

I got a 3-month ban on an unnamed website for saying that yesterday.

Something along the lines of: "How about lifting this federal hiring freeze, POTUS. Kinda hard to "Make America Great Again" if you're shutting down hiring options to some of the most highly qualified people there are for federal jobs, separating and retiring military members."

BAM!! Nearly instantaneously I received a 90-day ban for violating the website's "No Politics" post rule. I didn't even know there was such a rule. There is, but it takes 10 minutes of digging to find it.

90-dan ban for making a "political post" on a FIREARMS website?? Go figure!?!?

[cswift01]

I got a 3-month ban on an unnamed website for saying that yesterday.

Something along the lines of: "How about lifting this federal hiring freeze, POTUS. Kinda hard to "Make America Great Again" if you're shutting down hiring options to some of the most highly qualified people there are for federal jobs, separating and retiring military members."

BAM!! Nearly instantaneously I received a 90-day ban for violating the website's "No Politics" post rule. I didn't even know there was such a rule. There is, but it takes 10 minutes of digging to find it.

90-dan ban for making a "political post" on a FIREARMS website?? Go figure!?!?

Sounds like you said something that someone didn't like... I know it doesn't matter in your case, but I think your reasoning was sound.

Me

[wisepierre]

What will be interesting is tomorrow is the 1st of the month, which is generally one of the better trading days for each month. Curious what days the State of the Union address/Joint Session Speech is usually held -- if they are normally held at the middle or end of the month, an overall negative return doesn't surprise too much.

A rather tumultuous first 30+ days for Trump hasn't affected the markets much at all, until maybe the last week or so where things have mostly flattened. Even with a poor speech tonight, I don't see the market really being affected too much.

I remember the panic election night when the futures had the markets tanking, and for the next 2 months there was a sizeable rally.

Be wary of short-term panic.

[cb3]

I must have missed the in depth, plan filled speeches that were given in the past 30 days. Thought we were still on the trail... I'll try to listen harder.

[Snapdragon]

I got a 3-month ban on an unnamed website for saying that yesterday.

Something along the lines of: "How about lifting this federal hiring freeze, POTUS. Kinda hard to "Make America Great Again" if you're shutting down hiring options to some of the most highly qualified people there are for federal jobs, separating and retiring military members."

BAM!! Nearly instantaneously I received a 90-day ban for violating the website's "No Politics" post rule. I didn't even know there was such a rule. There is, but it takes 10 minutes of digging to find it.

90-dan ban for making a "political post" on a FIREARMS website?? Go figure!?!?

Stop being such a trouble maker!

[robodummy]

I got a 3-month ban on an unnamed website for saying that yesterday.

Something along the lines of: "How about lifting this federal hiring freeze, POTUS. Kinda hard to "Make America Great Again" if you're shutting down hiring options to some of the most highly qualified people there are for federal jobs, separating and retiring military members."

BAM!! Nearly instantaneously I received a 90-day ban for violating the website's "No Politics" post rule. I didn't even know there was such a rule. There is, but it takes 10 minutes of digging to find it.

90-dan ban for making a "political post" on a FIREARMS website?? Go figure!?!?

DISSENT IS POLITICAL

[USA]

While technically not a state of the union address, tonight's speech is a joint session so it meets criteria. Historically speaking, since 1961 the next days DJIA has produced a negative return 50.87% of the time(29/57) and averaged a -.09% return following a presidential SOU address. There has never been an increase of greater than 2% in that time(only 4 times above 1%), and only twice has there been an decrease of over 2%(2016 & 2000).

Those stats may need to be revised after last night's address. So far the Dow, S&P, DWCPF and EFA are up over 1%. Let's hope these numbers hold or get better by 4pm EST.

YUGE!

[Tim88M]

While technically not a state of the union address, tonight's speech is a joint session so it meets criteria. Historically speaking, since 1961 the next days DJIA has produced a negative return 50.87% of the time(29/57) and averaged a -.09% return following a presidential SOU address. There has never been an increase of greater than 2% in that time(only 4 times above 1%), and only twice has there been an decrease of over 2%(2016 & 2000).

Those stats may need to be revised after last night's address. So far the Dow, S&P, DWCPF and EFA are up over 1%. Let's hope these numbers hold or get better by 4pm EST.

YUGE!

If the DJIA holds above the 1.50% it will be the 2nd largest day. The data I have only shows from 1961. The largest was 1.90% in 1991, Bush Sr.

[Tim88M]

What will be interesting is tomorrow is the 1st of the month, which is generally one of the better trading days for each month. Curious what days the State of the Union address/Joint Session Speech is usually held -- if they are normally held at the middle or end of the month, an overall negative return doesn't surprise too much.

A rather tumultuous first 30+ days for Trump hasn't affected the markets much at all, until maybe the last week or so where things have mostly flattened. Even with a poor speech tonight, I don't see the market really being affected too much.

I remember the panic election night when the futures had the markets tanking, and for the next 2 months there was a sizeable rally.

Be wary of short-term panic.

To answer your question, this is only the 4th time were the following day is the beginning of a new month. 1961-Kennedy:-.38%, 1974 Nixon: -.79%, and 2001- Bush Jr result: -1.33%

From 1961 onward 80% of the time the SOU usually takes place in 3rd or 4th week in Jan.