Health Bill

General TSP Discussion.

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VJoe571
Posts: 75
Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2016 3:25 pm

Health Bill

Post by VJoe571 »

According to CNBC and the News, if the Health Bill doesn't pass the market will drop approximately 1000 points. It sounds to me that it is time to play it safe and move to the G fund before the vote.

Learning as I go. :mrgreen:

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cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: Health Bill

Post by cswift01 »

Most will say to stick with your seasonal plan. I would suggest something similar. This is the time when you should be receiving your dividends from mutual funds. My guess is that some of that will get into the C, S and I Funds even if they are not willing to speak about when they give dividends.

Also, in terms of the G Fund, remember this:

http://www.fedweek.com/tsp/tsps-g-fund- ... suspended/

Best,

Me

crondanet5
Posts: 4330
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: Health Bill

Post by crondanet5 »

Joe I did not see your IFT in your Fantasy Account today. Did you go G in your real TSP Account?

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ArrieS
Posts: 1072
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:56 am

Re: Health Bill

Post by ArrieS »

I doubt it will drop. If healthcare doesn't pass, people think the market will drop because tax reform won't get passed. All that needs to happen is some politician come out after a failed vote a or President Trump tweets and says now we move on to easier bills like tax reform and boom the market goes up.

For a little perspective, during the great recession, President Bush pushed for TARP and it was rejected by Congress on the first vote. The market fell 700 points on that. Keep in mind at that moment people thought the global financial system was going to collapse without TARP.

So if the healthcare bill doesn't pass, it's suppose to be 1,000 points or 5%? Almost the same reaction to fear of the world coming undone......
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February. - Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

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cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: Health Bill

Post by cswift01 »

ArrieS wrote:I doubt it will drop. If healthcare doesn't pass, people think the market will drop because tax reform won't get passed. All that needs to happen is some politician come out after a failed vote a or President Trump tweets and says now we move on to easier bills like tax reform and boom the market goes up.

For a little perspective, during the great recession, President Bush pushed for TARP and it was rejected by Congress on the first vote. The market fell 700 points on that. Keep in mind at that moment people thought the global financial system was going to collapse without TARP.

So if the healthcare bill doesn't pass, it's suppose to be 1,000 points or 5%? Almost the same reaction to fear of the world coming undone......


ArrieS,

Yeah, probably tax reform will be the next discussion and that will have an impact on the stock market. I also think it will increase, although I'm not sure if after the discussion begins people will feel a bit "bamboozled" by what they thought would be larger tax cuts. I don't expect things to go as smooth, but we'll see.

Also, thankfully we did have TARP. Could you imagine if banks and insurance companies would have failed? We wouldn't be talking about a Great Recession but another Great Depression.

Good stuff.

Best,

Me

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MakeMe$$$$
Posts: 772
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:12 pm

Re: Health Bill

Post by MakeMe$$$$ »

http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/24/investing/stocks-drop-health-care/index.html

Just for clarification and not really to debate my feelings on what just happened but I think I have to disagree with one major conclusion of the above article. I don't believe the failure of the administration to get AHCA through the house should reflect directly on tax reform efforts. Now, don't get me wrong. I know that tax changes fall under reconciliation procedures but I don't know it has as nearly the emotional impact on most citizens that health care does. I don't mean to say it will be easy but more doable.
Don
Rolled over to Fidelity 2/24/18.
Fantasy still playing with Daily Strategy 12767.

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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