"M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

General TSP Discussion.

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by Tomanyiron »

evilanne wrote:It is always good to look at different perspectives :mrgreen:

So when do we get the next chart Tomany? I think Crondanet5 is keeping track!


They say a picture is worth a thousand w̶o̶r̶d̶s̶ charts.
Image
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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RGEN
Posts: 228
Joined: Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:12 am

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by RGEN »

Welcome back “To Many Irons (in the fire)”. Been hibernating?

I have always enjoyed your charts as well as some of the coyote trails you have run down.
Keep up the good work. One of these days we probably will realize that a seasonally influenced Buy-N-Hold strategy while using charts to get out of the market when risks are high is the best strategy.

I’m not there yet.
RGEN

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StormVet
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Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2016 8:37 am

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by StormVet »

Tomanyiron wrote:
evilanne wrote:It is always good to look at different perspectives :mrgreen:

So when do we get the next chart Tomany? I think Crondanet5 is keeping track!


They say a picture is worth a thousand w̶o̶r̶d̶s̶ charts.
Image


In this case, a chart is worth a thousand words.
“The broker said the stock was "poised to move." Silly me, I thought he meant up.”
― Randy Thurman

Foxy
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:43 am

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by Foxy »

Tomanyiron wrote:
evilanne wrote:It is always good to look at different perspectives :mrgreen:

So when do we get the next chart Tomany? I think Crondanet5 is keeping track!


They say a picture is worth a thousand w̶o̶r̶d̶s̶ charts.
Image


Hope that bear stays put and lets the bulls keep going.

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sonofnthng
Posts: 273
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:03 pm

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by sonofnthng »

rlinehan wrote:Wow!



Genius that you are, with 10 allocation changes, you LOST 6.66% in 2016, when the G Fund would have earned you 1.82%; the F, 2.91%; the C, 12.01%; the S, 16.35%; and the I, 2.1%.


If ever there were one.


Before I read the rest of the thread... How do you know what his actual real life TSP did? This isn't real money, and a lot of people don't mirror their real life moves, but try new things. So, relax.

Also, Tomanyiron netted 11% in 2015 when all the buy and hold lost, what, ~30%? So he beat it by a mile. That more than makes up for missing 3-5 extra% in the first 4 months of 2017. It's a long year, bud. Just post your fantasy acct, and don't be a dick.
Tracking #85660 -//- PIP 35.29% Jan '21
Seasonal Strategies:
http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.p ... 205#p53743
Yes, death is coming...but then again, it's always coming.
-Aitrus

rlinehan
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:37 pm

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by rlinehan »

Sorry, TomS88, your "charts" did NOT "tell you where an index is going."

"Want to come over the house [sic!] so I can sit you down and show you some buy and sell signals?"

WHICH were those?

"Please, share some of your brilliance ..."

I did that -- and you REFUSED to R-E-A-D!

And note that Tomanyiron, who started this thread -- and claimed the I Fund, whose recent rise he'd Totally Missed, was near a top -- REMAINS Totally Invested in the F Fund.

My recommendation is as its always been: Unless we're facing a recession, be invested in stocks, 40% C Fund, 40% S Fund, 20% I Fund, or something like that mix.

If you think that the I Fund is likely to outperform, as it has and I expect it to do, bump your exposure to that fund up to 30%.

It is manifestly apparent that most people posting at this site can NOT even comprehend the concept of diversification, still less "reversion to the mean," much less ability to read charts, as here.

Hence the posts.

Irene
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2017 11:23 pm

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by Irene »

Maybe you all can exchange personal email addresses and spare the rest of us from your ongoing feud.

CrocSix
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:45 pm

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by CrocSix »

rlinehan wrote:It is manifestly apparent that most people posting at this site can NOT even comprehend the concept of diversification, still less "reversion to the mean," much less ability to read charts, as here.


That's a very broad statement coming from someone who does nothing more than attack others.

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bluedragon
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Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:25 am

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by bluedragon »

Irene wrote:Maybe you all can exchange personal email addresses and spare the rest of us from your ongoing feud.


I second that suggestion. That sort of nonsense is not why we're here.

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Chamorrita
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Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:45 pm

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by Chamorrita »

Administrators / Moderators - The ban hammer is long over due here.
Susie

rlinehan
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:37 pm

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by rlinehan »

That's a very broad statement coming from someone who does nothing more than attack others.

Evidently Basic Reading is the issue!

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4973
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by Tomanyiron »

I made a mistake, yes, I did, yes, I did
Made a mistake, yes, I did, yes, I did
Now I'm so far, but it was me and my fate
Who lost because of my mistake
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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sonofnthng
Posts: 273
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:03 pm

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by sonofnthng »

Let them have it out, just stop opening the thread. Diversification is great, and the L funds do a lot of the work for you... But with the hard statistical evidence of an overall monthly return gives much weight to the performance abilities of these seasonal mixes.

I thought the original point was signs of correction, and whether or not we can know that based on charts. And, to a fault, we do. That's what any strategy is based off, historical charts. We know everything about the past and have guesses at what the future holds. But, provided there's no major hiccup, the charts tomanyiron puts up do have value. Not everyone has to think so, but there's no reason for childish name calling and chest puffing, come on mang!!
Tracking #85660 -//- PIP 35.29% Jan '21
Seasonal Strategies:
http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.p ... 205#p53743
Yes, death is coming...but then again, it's always coming.
-Aitrus

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WildBill
Posts: 16
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:06 pm

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by WildBill »

rlinehan wrote:Sorry, TomS88, your "charts" did NOT "tell you where an index is going."

"Want to come over the house [sic!] so I can sit you down and show you some buy and sell signals?"

WHICH were those?

"Please, share some of your brilliance ..."

I did that -- and you REFUSED to R-E-A-D!

And note that Tomanyiron, who started this thread -- and claimed the I Fund, whose recent rise he'd Totally Missed, was near a top -- REMAINS Totally Invested in the F Fund.

My recommendation is as its always been: Unless we're facing a recession, be invested in stocks, 40% C Fund, 40% S Fund, 20% I Fund, or something like that mix.

If you think that the I Fund is likely to outperform, as it has and I expect it to do, bump your exposure to that fund up to 30%.

It is manifestly apparent that most people posting at this site can NOT even comprehend the concept of diversification, still less "reversion to the mean," much less ability to read charts, as here.

Hence the posts.


Whew, you seems to have some anger management issues.

Buckwheat
Posts: 15
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:24 pm

Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?

Post by Buckwheat »

Irene wrote:Maybe you all can exchange personal email addresses and spare the rest of us from your ongoing feud.


Well said.

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Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".