"M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
Moderator: Aitrus
- Tomanyiron
- Posts: 4973
- Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
Wow! rlinehan, thanks for the publicity. I was not getting much interest in my OP, until your comments.
You also brought a lot of publicity to yourself. I'm not sure if it's the kind you wanted. Seems mostly negative, but you might like that. Some people get-off on that sort of thing.
For sure more people will be watching now to see if my chart analyst works out. It was never meant to be any kind of "know-it-all" prediction. It was meant to be another way of looking at things other than what has been shows.
As for my record, I’m sure there are many members who think the same as you, but are too polite to say it. My past returns are mediocre, I have made many mistakes. Before 2010 I knew no more about the stock market than a fifth grader. But with each mistake was an opportunity. I have said before, with each IFT, no mater how it turns out, there can be lessons learned.
And there can be lessons learned from each post, it may take a while to learn anything positive from yours.
You also brought a lot of publicity to yourself. I'm not sure if it's the kind you wanted. Seems mostly negative, but you might like that. Some people get-off on that sort of thing.
For sure more people will be watching now to see if my chart analyst works out. It was never meant to be any kind of "know-it-all" prediction. It was meant to be another way of looking at things other than what has been shows.
As for my record, I’m sure there are many members who think the same as you, but are too polite to say it. My past returns are mediocre, I have made many mistakes. Before 2010 I knew no more about the stock market than a fifth grader. But with each mistake was an opportunity. I have said before, with each IFT, no mater how it turns out, there can be lessons learned.
And there can be lessons learned from each post, it may take a while to learn anything positive from yours.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
Toma,
I'll say it more politely than Mr. Rlinehan. You're losing out to buy and hold man. With any strategy if you're losing out to buy and hold repeatedly (as evidenced by your returns), you really should re-evaluate what decisions you are making with your retirement. Like you said, there are lessons to learn with each IFT, but please dont keep on this path if you continue to receive less than stellar returns. Had I been buy and hold last year, I would've received more than 9% on my actual TSP...and if I stuck to the strategy I started the year at I would've been near 20% (seasonal). The point is, reading charts, and trying to time the market has been shown to be a very fruitless strategy for all but a select few who are truly experts. With the limited knowledge you admitted you have, its a dangerous game to be playing with your retirement now.
Anyhow, keep learning lessons, and hopefully you can get your retirement back on track soon bud
I'll say it more politely than Mr. Rlinehan. You're losing out to buy and hold man. With any strategy if you're losing out to buy and hold repeatedly (as evidenced by your returns), you really should re-evaluate what decisions you are making with your retirement. Like you said, there are lessons to learn with each IFT, but please dont keep on this path if you continue to receive less than stellar returns. Had I been buy and hold last year, I would've received more than 9% on my actual TSP...and if I stuck to the strategy I started the year at I would've been near 20% (seasonal). The point is, reading charts, and trying to time the market has been shown to be a very fruitless strategy for all but a select few who are truly experts. With the limited knowledge you admitted you have, its a dangerous game to be playing with your retirement now.
Anyhow, keep learning lessons, and hopefully you can get your retirement back on track soon bud
I follow a monthly seasonal strategy from gclapper (slightly modified). Its moves can be found by searching for strategy number #25727 on http://www.tspcalc.com
- Tomanyiron
- Posts: 4973
- Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
Thanks wdd09, the concern for my retirement account is appreciated. I already know my approach is a hard hill to climb. However it's very much a challenge to me, and going to be difficult to give-up.
That few were not born experts, they all started somewhere. Anyway, to me the pursuit is half the fun. If I get to be one of the "few who are truly experts", I will most likely stop posting on this site. The challenge will be over, and I will move on to another.
By the way, My record is out there for the whole world to see, why don't you join the Fantasy? We all like to see from where a person is "coming from".
wdd09 wrote:The point is, reading charts, and trying to time the market has been shown to be a very fruitless strategy for all but a select few who are truly experts.
That few were not born experts, they all started somewhere. Anyway, to me the pursuit is half the fun. If I get to be one of the "few who are truly experts", I will most likely stop posting on this site. The challenge will be over, and I will move on to another.
By the way, My record is out there for the whole world to see, why don't you join the Fantasy? We all like to see from where a person is "coming from".
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
Let's keep it civil, everybody. You're awfully close to having one of these called on you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRwm3B4k_Ek
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRwm3B4k_Ek
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
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Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
Support the site by purchasing a membership at TSPCalc! https://tspcalc.com
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
Tomanyiron wrote:By the way, My record is out there for the whole world to see, why don't you join the Fantasy? We all like to see from where a person is "coming from".
Because I don't feel like updating my allocations on 2 sites (here, and TSP.gov) in addition to the tracker I use on another website to track my actual balance. I follow gClappers seasonal strategy at all times and all values of the market if you need to know exactly how well I'm doing
I follow a monthly seasonal strategy from gclapper (slightly modified). Its moves can be found by searching for strategy number #25727 on http://www.tspcalc.com
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- Posts: 4330
- Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
I think we are missing the point of this post. Tommie's chart indicates we may be near the edge of the cliff that has historical backgrounds of appearing when certain factors are considered. The talking heads of CNBC are very concerned about the small gains in the market that indicate a topping. And all you people jumping into the I Fund could have a rough road ahead if a Black Swan event affects European markets. Tomanyiron may be in the sweet spot if foreign investors rush to the US 10 year bond and interest rates drop. I suggest caution here and you ask Tommie to post another chart.
- Tomanyiron
- Posts: 4973
- Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
Aitrus wrote:Let's keep it civil, everybody. You're awfully close to having one of these called on you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRwm3B4k_Ek
"Everyone but the center" I'm the center, right? The center snaps the ball, and starts the play. Similar to the original poster starting a thread, Ha Ha Ha. It's all fun, except to a few.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
It is always good to look at different perspectives
So when do we get the next chart Tomany? I think Crondanet5 is keeping track!
So when do we get the next chart Tomany? I think Crondanet5 is keeping track!
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
With the dollar rising fast off a 4-5 month low, I fund could suffer, even if Euro markets themselves are positive.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&st=2016-12-30&en=2017-03-30&&id=p26024471156
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&st=2016-12-30&en=2017-03-30&&id=p26024471156
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
- Dean Witter
"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
Conversely, with the continuing resolution set to expire next month and the debt ceiling already reached, April offers the opportunity for high drama and a resultant drop for the dollar. I often wonder if the I Fund does generally well in April, not because foreign stocks do well, but because the US government tends to freak out at it's fiscal mid-year.
- Tomanyiron
- Posts: 4973
- Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
evilanne wrote:It is always good to look at different perspectives
So when do we get the next chart Tomany? I think Crondanet5 is keeping track!
Wait until after the Turn-Of-The-Month effect passes next week. I posted this on the Le Sigh thread. I should have acted on it as Cron did. He often pays more attention to my words than I do.
Tomanyiron wrote:Posted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:43 pm Yea, there maybe some "Turn-Of-The-Month" effect on stocks, starting tomorrow or maybe later this week. That will pull money from the bond fund. https://seekingalpha.com/article/186641 ... nth-effect
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes
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- Posts: 4330
- Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
Tommie I'm just a sucker for your I double dare ya's. Ooooooo! What did I just step in?
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
rlinehan wrote:Wow!
Sorry to break it to you, Tomanyiron – whatever that is!
Charts do NOT explain where stocks are going; they report where stocks have been.
FUNDAMENTALS explain where stocks are headed – and they’ve been reporting I-Fund outperformance for LONG TIME.
Actually Mr. Lanihan charts CAN tell you where an index is going. Want to come over the house so I can sit you down and show you some buy and sell signals? And fundamentals are great tools, but we're investing in index funds here with many variables. Lots and lots of companies all in 1 investment. If oil tanks there goes 5% of the large caps and 6% of the small caps.
Please, share some of your brilliance and play the game otherwise your opinion isn't worth squat because you have no credibility. Nobody cares if you can't back it up. I'd rather be an investor who can admit mistakes, than someone who only picks at imperfection without a solution. Fundamentals. Duh. Fix it Lanihan.
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
rcozby wrote:Conversely, with the continuing resolution set to expire next month and the debt ceiling already reached, April offers the opportunity for high drama and a resultant drop for the dollar. I often wonder if the I Fund does generally well in April, not because foreign stocks do well, but because the US government tends to freak out at it's fiscal mid-year.
Personally I'm a bit concerned that there are 2 fights going on. (a) The most recent is the threat that if the DoD funding doesn't increase there will be filibuster for the ceiling and (b) a new budget with tons of spending proposals (wall, infrastructure, etc.). So far the hardcore group in the House are showing their same "flowers" to the present president as the past president. Everything is "no" and I don't suspect that will change any time soon. Given the upcoming continuing resolution I think that this will also affect the American economy.
Check out this study from UMD about the Federal budget uncertainty:
http://faculty.publicpolicy.umd.edu/sit ... tainty.pdf
Here is just an example of the costs of budget uncertainty. In 2013 it took over $1.3 billion per day from the economy (ultimately affecting the S&P):
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ay-sp-says
I'm sure you can find more references.
All this goes to say, yes, April should be somewhat dangerous to the US equities. Let's see what happens.
Best,
Me
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- Posts: 4330
- Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm
Re: "M" Top and Is the I Fund Too High?
I cannot understand how a President who talks about improving the Nation's infrastructure endorses cutting the Coast Guard budget when they are critically involved with maintaining river navigational aids and conducting hundreds of drug interdictions.
I also propose that any federal employee cuts take place first in conservative Republican states so those voters can feel the effects of fewer people available to answer their questions and help them. And let's relocate the military assigned to those states to states who like having military (federal) employees around. That would reduce the federal footprint in those Republican states.
I also propose that any federal employee cuts take place first in conservative Republican states so those voters can feel the effects of fewer people available to answer their questions and help them. And let's relocate the military assigned to those states to states who like having military (federal) employees around. That would reduce the federal footprint in those Republican states.
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