A Timer’s Temptations

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cswift01
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Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by cswift01 »

crondanet5 wrote:Tommie I was glad to see you chose the G Fund rather than the F Fund. Interest rates will continue to go up which means the F Fund is not the place to be.


I've been wondering about this, however, if there is a market correction, then I bet the F Fund would receive a nice jolt. If that were to happen, then selling the F Fund would prize a lot of great equity shares.

Let's see what April brings. I'm a bit worried myself.

Best,

Me

P.S. You might find this interesting. According to a number of millionaires, they simply bought and held in the equities: http://federalnewsradio.com/mike-causey ... p-account/.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by Tomanyiron »

cswift01 wrote:
crondanet5 wrote:Tommie I was glad to see you chose the G Fund rather than the F Fund. Interest rates will continue to go up which means the F Fund is not the place to be.


I've been wondering about this, however, if there is a market correction, then I bet the F Fund would receive a nice jolt. If that were to happen, then selling the F Fund would prize a lot of great equity shares...


I made an exit from the F fund because of… You guessed it CHARTS. And the thought crossed my mind, people will think I’m not “putting my money where my mouth is”. Because of what you said, and what happens most of the time.
To be honest there is a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
However I feel the market is stalling and topping out, but that process is continuing at a slow-as-molasses pace. Might as well sit and watch until an all’s clear signal comes from Bonds or Stocks.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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evilanne
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Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by evilanne »

Today it appears that you should have waited a little longer as the F Fund is the doing well as stocks are tanking :(

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Tomanyiron
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Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by Tomanyiron »

evilanne wrote:Today it appears that you should have waited a little longer as the F Fund is the doing well as stocks are tanking :(

Very true, but how often has this happen to all of. I had some thoughts that "Turn of Month" would be short lived.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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evilanne
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Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by evilanne »

So true, I have plenty of those hindsight moments :)

WxMan0523
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Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by WxMan0523 »

i have little faith in someone who can't count to 6 :)

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Tomanyiron
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Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by Tomanyiron »

WxMan0523 wrote:i have little faith in someone who can't count to 6 :)

Thanks for the heads-up, I fixed it. And I congratulate you on a good year so far.
If you see anything else, give me a shout.
Oh, shouldn't that "I" be capitalized? :lol:
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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sunny2012
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Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 8:13 am

Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by sunny2012 »

[Crondat]Tommie I was glad to see you chose the G Fund rather than the F Fund. Interest rates will continue to go up which means the F Fund is not the place to be.
[/quote]

Cron,

I was glad to see you mention avoiding the F fund. I hadn't really considered the F Fund much for this year because of all the talk of the rising interest rates. Nobody seems to really be talking about that much. I figured the rising interest rates would cause the F fund to drop like a rock.

What are your thoughts regarding the G Fund and the government tapping into it because the debt ceiling has been reached? How does it affect our investment into that fund if the funds are being used to fund the government?
I'm just making this up as I go along.

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sunny2012
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Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by sunny2012 »

Cron,

I was glad to see you mention avoiding the F fund. I hadn't really considered the F Fund much for this year because of all the talk of the rising interest rates. Nobody seems to really be talking about that much. I figured the rising interest rates would cause the F fund to drop like a rock.

What are your thoughts regarding the G Fund and the government tapping into it because the debt ceiling has been reached? How does it affect our investment into that fund if the funds are being used to fund the government?[/quote]
I'm just making this up as I go along.

crondanet5
Posts: 4330
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by crondanet5 »

As I understand the law your G Fund is safe. You can IFT in and out of it as always, but the balance in your account may be for a figure they intend to restore to the G Fund when the debt ceiling is raised. This is another reason I urge retirees to roll their TSP Account over to a brokerage IRA account. Until they do, technically their TSP Account belongs to Uncle Sam. Remember Enron?

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12squared
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Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by 12squared »

crondanet5 wrote:I am disappointed in the lack of participation in this wonderful post. So it's you and me Tommie. Can you give me a chart for the I Fund with the 20 day exponential?


For more fun, try changing the values in the MACD. Looking at it over several time period suggests a trend. I currently like using a 1:4 ratio, with the red action line at a 1:3 from the larger of the two, e.g MACD(3,12,4), MACD(6,24,8). I used this as the basis for leaving I fund March 31 - while everyone else was piling into it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFA&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p07548672033
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

crondanet5
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Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by crondanet5 »

12squared you just won First Prize. Chart of the year.

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12squared
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Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by 12squared »

The cross-over for the MACD(3,12,4) often coincides with tops or bottoms in a 3 day moving average. Note that I use SMA(3,-1) to shift the value of the average to the center of the values comprising it. This only works for an odd simple average, e.g. SMA(5,-2). It could confirm that price has changed direction
Using a shorter time frame, e.g. MACD(2,8,3) might be a way to decide about making an IFT based on a one-day reversal.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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evilanne
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Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by evilanne »

Good chart 12squared...I'm wary of I fund. Are you planning on returning to I, C or S? What number(s) or signal are you looking for to get back in?

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Tomanyiron
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Re: A Timer’s Temptations

Post by Tomanyiron »

crondanet5 wrote:12squared you just won First Prize. Chart of the year.

Be careful 144. Cron starts with compliments, but soon he will start asking you to do custom charts for him. Something like this, "Make a chart on how much I can save on my taxes next year, if I start deducting my computer cost, because I use it for investing". :lol:
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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