Timer's Notes, What's Currently Happening?

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Tomanyiron
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Timer's Notes, What's Currently Happening?

Post by Tomanyiron »

"When stocks are rallying like crazy, you’ll see loads of articles all trying to explain why stocks are flying higher. You’ll come to the conclusion that buying stocks is the best thing to do. And maybe it is for a time, but even when stocks start to drop, you’ll still have all those reasons in your head about why owning stocks is so great. Since very few people are putting out warnings just after a market top, you draw conclusions based on the most available information…
The danger is that you aren’t looking at what is actually going on in the market. Instead, you have chosen to rely simply on what you hear and read most often (or your beliefs), which may not be an accurate representation of what is currently happening..."
Cory Mitchell, CMT.

Image
http://schrts.co/RHTGnr
After I looked at this chart, the thought of dominoes falling, came into my head.
1- Commodity Channel Index (CCI) Showed a divergence – not making higher highs, when price was.
2- Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) Breached the ascending channel.
3- Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) Rounding over, and then a bearish cross.
4- Actual Price of the S&P 500 bouncing between a descending channel.

Disclaimer: I can’t say 100% that I don’t have some “Allocation Bias” (in the G fund currently). Everyone should examine each indicator for their self. Always check a longer-term chart to verify the normal range for the index you are analyzing. And come up with your own “breaches” that satisfy you.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

OkieTSPer
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Re: Timer's Notes, What's Currently Happening?

Post by OkieTSPer »

Thanks for the charts and the input Tomanyiron.

crondanet5
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Re: Timer's Notes, What's Currently Happening?

Post by crondanet5 »

All the chartists depict the SPY. What does the Chart look like for $DWCPF?


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12squared
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Re: Timer's Notes, What's Currently Happening?

Post by 12squared »

What do you make of this one, which uses non-standard PMOs?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWCPF&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p93829291325
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Timer's Notes, What's Currently Happening?

Post by Tomanyiron »

12squared wrote:What do you make of this one, which uses non-standard PMOs?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWCPF&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p93829291325

I guess you are talking about the bullish cross on the shorter-term PMOs?
Stretch-out your chart to a year or two.
http://schrts.co/KMBSlX
Look at past repeating cross patterns at these levels, is it reliable? When I say “reliable”, I am talking about TSP’s, 12 noon cut-off, and IFT limitations.
Do this, take a piece of paper and cover a 2-yr chart. Then slowly move the paper to the right, exposing what happened. Does the system show good odds.

And looking at the BBs, is that two Bull Traps (Mar 13-20 & Mar 23 – Apr 3)?
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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12squared
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Re: Timer's Notes, What's Currently Happening?

Post by 12squared »

12squared wrote:Comparison of EFA & $DWCPF suggests that the relative strength of I over S may be waning. This is in sharp contrast with late April when I pulled ahead, and late May when S began to advance.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFA%3A ... 1983946759


Tomanyiron wrote:Thanks for the chart 144, look at this.
http://schrts.co/sRbDkk
Reversing the ratio, and adding S fund overlaid, also suggest you are correct.


Did you include the $DWCPF alone just to see the price history on the climb?

I note you kept the KST(3,8,20,50,3,3,3,3,1) plot. I am using this non-standard version to show the aggregate rates of change over a short to medium term basis. Thoughts?

FYI, I found that the shortened links from StockCharts are blocked from where I am during the day. However, the full permalink works.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWC ... 3271791626
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Timer's Notes, What's Currently Happening?

Post by Tomanyiron »

12squared wrote: Did you include the $DWCPF alone just to see the price history on the climb?

Yes and thanks for telling me about the shorten link thing.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

jdunn382
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Re: Timer's Notes, What's Currently Happening?

Post by jdunn382 »

What is a good resource for better understanding charts?

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Timer's Notes, What's Currently Happening?

Post by Tomanyiron »

jdunn382 wrote:What is a good resource for better understanding charts?

Many different methods, http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school, is a good resource.
Investopedia has courses https://academy.investopedia.com/.
Also you see something just Google it.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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bamablue
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Re: Timer's Notes, What's Currently Happening?

Post by bamablue »

Tomanyiron... are you looking at this as the last bit of incline with a steep drop-off? I think there are enough people who experienced the steep drop-off in 2008. Do you see correlation in your analysis with the early Summer of 2008 and now?

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Timer's Notes, What's Currently Happening?

Post by Tomanyiron »

bamablue wrote:Tomanyiron... are you looking at this as the last bit of incline with a steep drop-off? I think there are enough people who experienced the steep drop-off in 2008. Do you see correlation in your analysis with the early Summer of 2008 and now?

Yes, but I'm not holding my breath. A very smart member had this in a PM, "Always remember that this year's market is different than last year's market. What was up is down, what was down is up."
When I look at a chart like this, it's difficult to be a bear.
Image
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ITB ... =529708373
When you see that RED line turn down, it might be time to run. :shock:
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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Fund Prices2024-03-28

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.15 0.05% 1.05%
F $19.08 -0.06% -0.74%
C $82.21 0.11% 10.55%
S $82.43 0.30% 6.92%
I $42.57 -0.24% 5.95%
L2065 $16.38 0.02% 8.37%
L2060 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2055 $16.39 0.02% 8.38%
L2050 $32.73 0.01% 6.95%
L2045 $14.91 0.02% 6.58%
L2040 $54.38 0.02% 6.22%
L2035 $14.34 0.02% 5.79%
L2030 $47.67 0.02% 5.38%
L2025 $13.15 0.03% 3.43%
Linc $25.61 0.03% 2.82%

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