TSP Center

Tomanyiron wrote:If I were looking to buy this market, I believe I would wait until Tuesday the 18th to get in, (after Easter, and tax day). History of the market seems to show better odds the last 2 weeks of the month.

We have established a pattern of lower lows and lower highs, but there still will be highs.
So one scenario I have is something like this;

http://schrts.co/miv1W5

That's a classy bull market triangle.

I'm rooting for it.

I'd watch for SPX 2322 level carefully. If it brakes down 2322, then it could go down more (maybe near 2290?). However, if it holds that level and start bouncing back strongly, then it will more than likely make one more ATH (to maybe around 2420ish to 2450ish?). After that? Who knows...but it may take a typical market correction (around 10%?) relevant to a major degree 4th wave and then push up to above 2500 for the final top, hopefully!

I would like to add that generally I believe the downtrend will last most of the summer. The short-term play suggested in my OP would require nimbleness. And would depend on a person’s risk appetite.

I wish you would chart $DWCPF instead of the C Fund.

crondanet5 wrote:I wish you would chart $DWCPF instead of the C Fund.

Cron, you know the two are “connected at the hip” right? With only a little difference one way or the other, One is not going up for 2-3 days while the other goes down. If a rally comes after Easter who knows which one will gain the highest percent. The C fund has more of an international connection, April is the I funds best month. However small caps do better at the start of rallies.

And I hope you also know, this is only a suggestion? A possibility of many.

Message to everyone: Have you been good at "Catching a falling knife"? If not I wouldn't try.
The S fund has problems coloring inside the lines, but it’s about the same scenario.

looks like we going down. I tried to IFT G Fund today but the Game wouldn't let me.

crondanet5 wrote:looks like we going down. I tried to IFT G Fund today but the Game wouldn't let me.

I show you being in G Fund since Monday.

If I'm 100% S fund, is this a good time to go 100% C fund? I'm new to this game. I read the TSP seasonal calculator which shows April as C fund. If I’m correct, I understand that I should move out when a Fund is higher to a different Fund when it’s lower. I still have over 20 years to go before retirement.

Chris I play around a lot with charts. I look for repeating patterns. What I post here is mostly long-term “suggestions”. I’m looking for signs of a mood change in the market. Everyone knows the stock market has cycles.

What I see as a strong possibility is April earnings not living up to the expectations. By “expectations” I’m talking about the seasonal systems suggesting stocks do well in April.
TSP Stock Funds so far this April.
C Fund -1.57%
S Fund -1.98%
I Fund -1.07%

All the funds are in a bearish pattern. And I believe the downtrend will last most of the summer. Which stock fund is better than the other? Well that’s like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

However it is important to recognize that this forecast is not meant to predict the day-to-day nature of the market. Within that downtrend, a few days or a week of an up-trend is possible. For a novice trying to time it correctly? Well that would require a combination of luck and reliance on other people’s conclusions.

In order to function and not go completely crazy at this game remember this. Just because you see something a lot does not mean it is what is best for you, or even true. Determine your risk appetite.
Don’t draw conclusions quickly. Don’t rely on what you see or hear, regardless of the source. Try it out for yourself, verify it and then work out ways to implement it.

Tommie I agree with your market expectation this Summer. TSP is a strange program in that the Funds do not repeat their performance year after year. Last year's winner is this year's loser, and last year's loser is this year's winner. That makes the Seasonal Plans shaky IMHO. Some years not losing is winning-- short forays in the market with long stretches in the G Fund.

Tomanyiron wrote:Chris I play around a lot with charts. I look for repeating patterns. What I post here is mostly long-term “suggestions”. I’m looking for signs of a mood change in the market. Everyone knows the stock market has cycles.

What I see as a strong possibility is April earnings not living up to the expectations. By “expectations” I’m talking about the seasonal systems suggesting stocks do well in April.
TSP Stock Funds so far this April.
C Fund -1.57%
S Fund -1.98%
I Fund -1.07%

All the funds are in a bearish pattern. And I believe the downtrend will last most of the summer. Which stock fund is better than the other? Well that’s like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

However it is important to recognize that this forecast is not meant to predict the day-to-day nature of the market. Within that downtrend, a few days or a week of an up-trend is possible. For a novice trying to time it correctly? Well that would require a combination of luck and reliance on other people’s conclusions.

In order to function and not go completely crazy at this game remember this. Just because you see something a lot does not mean it is what is best for you, or even true. Determine your risk appetite.
Don’t draw conclusions quickly. Don’t rely on what you see or hear, regardless of the source. Try it out for yourself, verify it and then work out ways to implement it.

I'm hoping that at least we can hold out until the end of June. My feeling is that afterwards it will be a slide down. Hopefully I'm wrong.

I think the I Fund will do well and the F too.

I hope I'm wrong.

Me

swift what makes you think the I Fund will do well?

With the Fed & Trump, it is hard to predict what the market will do, markets could go either way...
--how many interest rate changes and/or reduction in bond holdings
--any progress on resolving ACA or reducing tax rates
--recent military actions could have positive impact (job opportunities possible if replacement missiles/bomb are pursued). Wars generally are good for the economy & the market
My only prediction for all funds is that it will be either positive or negative

evilanne wrote:With the Fed & Trump, it is hard to predict what the market will do, markets could go either way...
--how many interest rate changes and/or reduction in bond holdings
--any progress on resolving ACA or reducing tax rates
--recent military actions could have positive impact (job opportunities possible if replacement missiles/bomb are pursued). Wars generally are good for the economy & the market
My only prediction for all funds is that it will be either positive or negative

Haha! It seems so confusing these days.

Me