The daily seasonal strategy

[mjedlin66]

This is a massive website update. Beside the leaderboard and the 2017 YTD, I had to completely restructure the database and a lot of the scripting. Then I had to write new scripts so that old links to the calculator (which are based on the old database structure and old scripts) will still work. I need to do some more testing and tweak the code as necessary to avoid errors. It will be published probably tomorrow night.

This last part you may as well have written it in Cantonese. I may have forgotten to mention I'm an 1811 series? Soooo... let's slow down with all the big words.

Big, complicated website update. Much difficulty. Wait 1 day. Need more beer.

[mmmmmbeer]

This is a massive website update. Beside the leaderboard and the 2017 YTD, I had to completely restructure the database and a lot of the scripting. Then I had to write new scripts so that old links to the calculator (which are based on the old database structure and old scripts) will still work. I need to do some more testing and tweak the code as necessary to avoid errors. It will be published probably tomorrow night.

This last part you may as well have written it in Cantonese. I may have forgotten to mention I'm an 1811 series? Soooo... let's slow down with all the big words.

Big, complicated website update. Much difficulty. Wait 1 day. Need more beer.

Ah.. well geeze, why didn't you just talk good like that before!

[Tomanyiron]

... I would like to issue a word of caution-
I do not expect that this strategy will ever return 45%. This strategy was built on maximizing returns over 11 years that already happened. The idea is that a strategy that worked for 11 years straight will at least capture some of the seasonal tendencies going forward. But honestly, we will not see the same gains as the studied period because events will shift left or right of the target dates in the future. My only goal is to beat the core funds. I do not have any belief whatsoever that this strategy will blow the core funds out of the water like it did 2004-2015.

It might even do worse than the core funds. It is a gamble.

In 1947 the baseball great Yogi Berra was honored at a ceremony extolling his athletic skills. He knew of his obligation to give a speech after the receipt of the accolades and gifts, and his prepared remarks included a statement thanking everyone for making the event possible. But he became tongue-tied and said “I wanna thank everyone for making this night necessary.”

I wanna thank mjedlin for making this system necessary.”

With any system, it requires discipline. You don’t have to be exactly right. Instead it is to avoid being precisely wrong.

[mmmmmbeer]

I do not know how to delete a post. I am a nerd.

[mmmmmbeer]

Given that the 2008 return was indeed +45%, I would like to issue a word of caution-

I do not expect that this strategy will ever return 45%. This strategy was built on maximizing returns over 11 years that already happened. The idea is that a strategy that worked for 11 years straight will at least capture some of the seasonal tendencies going forward. But honestly, we will not see the same gains as the studied period because events will shift left or right of the target dates in the future. My only goal is to beat the core funds. I do not have any belief whatsoever that this strategy will blow the core funds out of the water like it did 2004-2015.

It might even do worse than the core funds. It is a gamble.

Dude even the "Core Seasonal Mixes" are just speculation utilizing past data. This just takes it down utilizing that same principle with a lot more minutia.

Of course It's not going to be a guaranteed sure thing, but bro if I can snag even HALF the average rate of return (14-15%) for the next 7-8 years.....[Christopher Walken] I'm a miilionaire![/Christopher Walken]

[Cpayne09]

So with the release of the calculator and having seen everyone's tweaks, have you changed up your original strategy? Why or why not?

[Skivvy9]

Staying with my original plan.

[mmmmmbeer]

I'm going to move to #4691 for awhile to sorta "see how she goes".

I'll do an assessment every so often (let's not kid ourselves, monthly) to see how We're doing compared to the Core Mixes. If it's not working out, there's nothing saying we can't switch back down the road.

[TSP262G]

Sorry I haven't read all the posts in this Thread, so if this has already been mentioned somewhere else on this site point me in the right direction. I am new as of early 2017.

Ideas for the next update to the daily and/or monthly strategy could incorporate/look for trends with regard to Federal Civilian Pay Days, Military Pay Days (1st? and 15th?), whether or not major companies/contractors also get paid on the same Friday/2 week cycle, etc.

I know I know don't over think it. But, maybe there is a trend to wait till Friday or Monday before/at/past the end of a month to make your IFT. Also because Friday pay days rotate from year to year (one year one month they might be 1st and 3rd, and the next it is 2nd and 4th) this could affect the ups and downs of the month's strategy.

Also 2 months out of the year, usually, there are 3 paychecks per month. This might be the easiest place to start to see if there is some sort of trend correleation up/down. June is coming up!

Happy Gains!

[BigBrenda]

Agree.

[Yuri]

Worthy of further study.

[nrialto]

The contest ends soon. Somebody's gotta break 6,000%.

[mjedlin66]

Based on my inbox, this appears to be a controversial thread. It shouldn't be. I just want to clear some things up.

1. This is not the best seasonal strategy out there for the given time period. I thought it was, but other people have used the Tspcalc.com website to produce better returns. All I did, in a nutshell, was average 11 years worth of returns and find the optimal trading strategy for 1 year worth of average gains. It was a unique approach and I waited a full year before sharing it. It has already been beat at the calculator, but I believe those better strategies used this as a baseline. So the research still paid off.

2. The numbers quoted were calculated in a massive and complicated excel spreadsheet. Where there is complexity, there are errors. These numbers are not 100% accurate but they are very close. The tspcalc website calculates it completely independent of this strategy, and I have acknowledged that there are discrepancies. I worked through 3 of the discrepancies, and found that the website calculator was correct each of those 3 times and that there was an error in the spreadsheet. I have not reconciled all of the discrepancies because I have been focusing my time on the website calculator. I realize that data discrepancies undermine my credibility. But they are less than 1% and I will find them eventually. I have been forthcoming about the discrepancies, and it is up to all of you to decide if you trust me or not. I won't mind either way. For the record, though, I trust the numbers on the website calculator a lot more than the spreadsheet.

3. Because this is a simple average system, it includes both really bad years and really good years- outliers. As such, I don't expect to see 40% gains in the future, ever. Those are theoretical gains because those years influenced the strategy. The only true test of a strategy is how it performed independent of the research years that it used. That is why in the other thread I linked to the 2016-2017 returns of my calculation: that is the only true tested time period, and it has done fairly well over that time period. Jahbulon's basic returned more over the same time period.

http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=24&y ... -G-F-C-S-I

4. Everything I have done is free for the community. I am extremely grateful for all of the donations to the website calculator. I joke about beer, but honestly, 100% of the donations will go toward paying future web hosting costs. I have received enough now to keep it online for 2+ years.

5. I really do plan on retiring at 40. That comment got a lot of negative response. I am not sure why. We are all here to share our plans.

6. There is a very good chance that buy and hold will beat every seasonal strategy we come up with in the long run. I have acknowledged that in the past, and that comment also got negative feedback.

7. Your TSP is your money. Do what you feel is best for it. I shared this strategy because i think it may work well going forward. You don't have to use it. I feel like this one should go without saying.

8. People have asked me if I am going to follow this strategy or one of the new ones from the website. I don't know yet. I would welcome open discussion on the new strategies from the leaderboard.

Thanks,

-Matt

[mmmmmbeer]

#4691! #4691! #4691!

I'm rallying you all to it, so if I go down in flames with it you all go down with me! Muah.. muaaah.. muahahahahaah!

[mjedlin66]

#4691! #4691! #4691!

I'm rallying you all to it, so if I go down in flames with it you all go down with me! Muah.. muaaah.. muahahahahaah!

4691 has some impressive numbers. It beat me for both 2004-2016 and 2010-2016. It has also handidly beat me 2016-2017.

4691 has 65% stock exposure. Mjedlin66 has 60%.

I would probably make this switch myself.