Based on my inbox, this appears to be a controversial thread. It shouldn't be. I just want to clear some things up.
1. This is not the best seasonal strategy out there for the given time period. I thought it was, but other people have used the Tspcalc.com website to produce better returns. All I did, in a nutshell, was average 11 years worth of returns and find the optimal trading strategy for 1 year worth of average gains. It was a unique approach and I waited a full year before sharing it. It has already been beat at the calculator, but I believe those better strategies used this as a baseline. So the research still paid off.
2. The numbers quoted were calculated in a massive and complicated excel spreadsheet. Where there is complexity, there are errors. These numbers are not 100% accurate but they are very close. The tspcalc website calculates it completely independent of this strategy, and I have acknowledged that there are discrepancies. I worked through 3 of the discrepancies, and found that the website calculator was correct each of those 3 times and that there was an error in the spreadsheet. I have not reconciled all of the discrepancies because I have been focusing my time on the website calculator. I realize that data discrepancies undermine my credibility. But they are less than 1% and I will find them eventually. I have been forthcoming about the discrepancies, and it is up to all of you to decide if you trust me or not. I won't mind either way. For the record, though, I trust the numbers on the website calculator a lot more than the spreadsheet.
3. Because this is a simple average system, it includes both really bad years and really good years- outliers. As such, I don't expect to see 40% gains in the future, ever. Those are theoretical gains because those years influenced the strategy. The only true test of a strategy is how it performed independent of the research years that it used. That is why in the other thread I linked to the 2016-2017 returns of my calculation: that is the only true tested time period, and it has done fairly well over that time period. Jahbulon's basic returned more over the same time period.
http://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=24&y ... -G-F-C-S-I4. Everything I have done is free for the community. I am extremely grateful for all of the donations to the website calculator. I joke about beer, but honestly, 100% of the donations will go toward paying future web hosting costs. I have received enough now to keep it online for 2+ years.
5. I really do plan on retiring at 40. That comment got a lot of negative response. I am not sure why. We are all here to share our plans.
6. There is a very good chance that buy and hold will beat every seasonal strategy we come up with in the long run. I have acknowledged that in the past, and that comment also got negative feedback.
7. Your TSP is your money. Do what you feel is best for it. I shared this strategy because i think it may work well going forward. You don't have to use it. I feel like this one should go without saying.
8. People have asked me if I am going to follow this strategy or one of the new ones from the website. I don't know yet. I would welcome open discussion on the new strategies from the leaderboard.
Thanks,
-Matt