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Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:36 am
by ksmoly04
Lots of interesting commentary regarding the 1st round Presidential Elections in France this Sunday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres- ... 2017-04-19

Admittedly, no one can predict the outcome... so is there any sense in seeking 'safer' harbors until Tues?

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:39 am
by evilanne
ksmoly04 wrote:Lots of interesting commentary regarding the 1st round Presidential Elections in France this Sunday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres- ... 2017-04-19

Admittedly, no one can predict the outcome... so is there any sense in seeking 'safer' harbors until Tues?


The forecasts for the market if LePen wins sounds eerily similar to the predictions for Trump prior to our election last year.

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:46 am
by bad70nova
I am going to hang in there was wishing for two good days in a row so I could jump ship to safety, but hate jumping while I'm down, but staying in till the end of the month could put me down more oh what to do.

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:39 pm
by 12squared
The CAC 40 is up 1.5% today - suggesting French optimism.

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:30 pm
by RKresearch
Yesterday Cramer on Mad Money was all over lurking to see if there is a sell-off in Europe then POUNCING ON US EQUITIES. I'm not a trader and aware that TSP is not trading platform but the strategy does sound like fun.

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:45 am
by cswift01
evilanne wrote:
ksmoly04 wrote:Lots of interesting commentary regarding the 1st round Presidential Elections in France this Sunday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres- ... 2017-04-19

Admittedly, no one can predict the outcome... so is there any sense in seeking 'safer' harbors until Tues?


The forecasts for the market if LePen wins sounds eerily similar to the predictions for Trump prior to our election last year.


Trump is a pragmatist. Le Pen is an demagogue/idealist and populist. While I think both are very dislike-able (my auto-correct put "disposable"), I think the comparisons are not necessarily equal.

Remember, however that the French are only a small part of the I-Fund, although if you include the Netherlands and Germany that you get a bigger chunk. Right now the UK and Japan are driving the numbers up. I think, however, one the proceedings of the Brexit go underway, that the I-Fund might be less trustworthy. We'll see though...

Me

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:35 am
by chummel
Does the attack yesterday increase the chance Le Pen will be elected and therefore affect an I Fund downward turn?
Craig

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:57 am
by DSS
cswift01 wrote:
Remember, however that the French are only a small part of the I-Fund, although if you include the Netherlands and Germany that you get a bigger chunk.

Me


Although, the implications of the French election really extend to perceived stability of the EU, rather than simply the French domestic markets.

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:16 pm
by bad70nova
Just 1 more good day in the I fund, so I can jump ship not looking like today going to be the day.

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:45 pm
by cswift01
DSS wrote:
cswift01 wrote:
Remember, however that the French are only a small part of the I-Fund, although if you include the Netherlands and Germany that you get a bigger chunk.

Me


Although, the implications of the French election really extend to perceived stability of the EU, rather than simply the French domestic markets.


That's right, that's why i mentioned the uk and Japan. I do think that there will be great economic consequences to her election if that were to happen. The EU would be in jeopardy. Let's hope for Europe things go well.

Best

Me

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:03 pm
by TSPsmart
European markets are drunk on European Central Bank liquidity. The ECB stepped up buying of corporate bonds with money created out of thin air this year.

Do you know what broke the US stock market out of it 2 year sideways pattern to send it to a new high in 2016? The "economically devastating" and unexpected British vote to leave the EU! Market started to tank and miraculously surged higher. It has been doing that a lot lately.

The global central banks (outside of the US) are on pace to inject 3 trillion dollars into financial markets so far in 2017. Forget the economy, forget corporate earnings, forget 1929 & 2000 market valuations, what are the central banks going to do next? That's what matters after any knee-jerk market reaction to the French vote.

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:23 pm
by nrialto
The French election is Sunday, so it's too late to go get out of I fund this week. However, President Trump just announced that he would release his tax cut package next week... time to move to C or S?

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:22 pm
by evilanne
TSPsmart wrote:European markets are drunk on European Central Bank liquidity. The ECB stepped up buying of corporate bonds with money created out of thin air this year.

Do you know what broke the US stock market out of it 2 year sideways pattern to send it to a new high in 2016? The "economically devastating" and unexpected British vote to leave the EU! Market started to tank and miraculously surged higher. It has been doing that a lot lately.

The global central banks (outside of the US) are on pace to inject 3 trillion dollars into financial markets so far in 2017. Forget the economy, forget corporate earnings, forget 1929 & 2000 market valuations, what are the central banks going to do next? That's what matters after any knee-jerk market reaction to the French vote.
Good Points! But how did Brexit break us out of the sideways trading pattern? Are you saying that this is when the EU started significant QE?
Article on EU QE: https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstal ... 230dbc4d82

I'm thinking that the outcome of the French election may be a good short term buying opportunity like Brexit, but a Frexit would have a bigger impact due to them using the Euro whereas Britain maintained their currency & never adopted the Euro.

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 2:39 am
by cswift01
evilanne wrote:
TSPsmart wrote:European markets are drunk on European Central Bank liquidity. The ECB stepped up buying of corporate bonds with money created out of thin air this year.

Do you know what broke the US stock market out of it 2 year sideways pattern to send it to a new high in 2016? The "economically devastating" and unexpected British vote to leave the EU! Market started to tank and miraculously surged higher. It has been doing that a lot lately.

The global central banks (outside of the US) are on pace to inject 3 trillion dollars into financial markets so far in 2017. Forget the economy, forget corporate earnings, forget 1929 & 2000 market valuations, what are the central banks going to do next? That's what matters after any knee-jerk market reaction to the French vote.
Good Points! But how did Brexit break us out of the sideways trading pattern? Are you saying that this is when the EU started significant QE?
Article on EU QE: https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstal ... 230dbc4d82

I'm thinking that the outcome of the French election may be a good short term buying opportunity like Brexit, but a Frexit would have a bigger impact due to them using the Euro whereas Britain maintained their currency & never adopted the Euro.


Evilanne,

My thoughts exactly, although it depends on how long you have until retirement. I have 30 years, so I see this as a potential buying opportunity. I'm sure that Le Pen will be one of the 2, so the stock market will probably do worse in Europe next week, which is a great buying opportunity. I'm not sure if this will pull the I Fund down, but there will definitely be downward pressure.

Best,

Me

Re: Leave I-Fund Early?

Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:26 am
by cswift01
For anyone that compares Le Pen to Trump, look at this article:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europe ... 2017-04-24

also look at how strong the Euro has gotten today. Brexit caused many hardships for the UK and this French election might not be much different.

Best,

Me