I fund & French Run-off Election

[MakeMe$$$$]

As I recall, the I fund was struggling a tad holding previous gains just before the first election and bounced pretty nicely thinking Le Pen couldn't win in the run off. Been there, seen that logic blown away. Today (5/4) the I fund is doing well in early market and some attribute that to the probability Le Pen will lose. (Deja Vu anyone?)

So...

Given the I fund gains this year, would it be a good tactical move to bail out of I?

As I see it, the I fund will take a major hit if Le Pen wins and if she loses the current gains aren't really shabby so holding them might be just as good of a reason to move on.

[JBD]

I thought the same thing with Trump and all the pundits were saying the market would dive with a Trump victory. I anticipated he would win and the market would freak, so I sold off the day before. Overnight the market dove south around 800 points and I looked like a genius. When the sun rose the next day all that had been erased and the market was up. A few days later I had missed the a big portion of the Trump bounce.

[evilanne]

We shall see. I think with EU increasing QE and US unwinding...I Fund may have better outlook/growth than US markets. If LePen pulls off an upset, there may be a buying opportunity but then you also have to consider the strength of the dollar.

[John316]

We shall see. I think with EU increasing QE and US unwinding...I Fund may have better outlook/growth than US markets. If LePen pulls off an upset, there may be a buying opportunity but then you also have to consider the strength of the dollar.

In my unprofessional opinion it seems the direction of the dollar is the single biggest reason this fund moves up or down. Don't have charts to back that statement up but it seems there are days when it looks like it is up for the day and turns out negative and vice versa. Maybe there should be a chart on this site for dollar strength/weakness and the direction it looks like it is heading. My 2 cents worth.

[Aitrus]

I thought the same thing with Trump and all the pundits were saying the market would dive with a Trump victory. I anticipated he would win and the market would freak, so I sold off the day before. Overnight the market dove south around 800 points and I looked like a genius. When the sun rose the next day all that had been erased and the market was up. A few days later I had missed the a big portion of the Trump bounce.

That's one reason I like using a Seasonal system. Human emotion is a completely random thing. Since short-term stock outlook is largely based on human emotion, I don't pay attention to the news of the day. Today's bad news is counterbalanced by next week's good news. And you never know how investors will react to news in general.

I think Agent K said it best: "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it."

[kaclemen]

I'll say it again the I-FUND will outperform the US domestic funds over the next 3-5 years. Look at the history of the EFA fund and it is clear as day we are in cyclical upswing for a few reasons the main one is the strength of the US dollar over the past 3 years has beaten this fund up. You can get into the macro and the micro and I'm sure make a case to be bullish or bearish but at the end of the day these economies are turning around and the strength of the dollar relative to other currencies is coming down and will continue to go down as interest rates rise domestically.

You can look at the runoff, try and figure out what's going on in EU, try to stay up to date on every other country outside of our own but at the end of the day there simply isn't enough time in a day to keep up with domestic news much less piecing together news from the outside and figuring out foreign policy, economies and outside forces impacting those markets.

Best thing to do is have a CLEAR exit and entry strategy. I don't think the I-fund explosion recently is some anomaly we all have to wrap out heads around, it is a tremendous fund and we have simply turned our nose to it because of how well our US based funds have done since financial crisis.

We naturally think our markets are superior (because well history tells us they are for one but also because the returns doesn't lie), but its time to rethink that as we continue down the path of the ageless US bull market that continues to set records and return beyond even the most bullish analysis.

Averages the last 7 years
C-Fund 15.37%/annually
S-Fund 17.47%/annually
I-Fund 8.7%/annually

You don't need me to tell you the I-Fund is a GREAT fund but we have simply put our guard up because of the tangible results above! And we simply don't trust emerging markets to deliver growth and sustainability quite like the US. Im here to tell you if your sitting 50/50 in C/S and expecting those high teen results the next 3-5 years your in for a HUGE letdown. I only see the I-Fund with the ability to deliver what you seek in return consistently. Now if your happy in that 3-7% and you don't mind some volatility then C/S if for you, but at that point why not take the headache/stress out of it and park money is securities fund (G) and wait for better buying opportunity. The C/S fund better days are behind it, IMO.

I think we are just getting started with the I-Fund!

[TopNotch]

Checkout this timely news from MarketWatch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europe ... 2017-05-04

[Five-O]

Checkout this timely news from MarketWatch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europe ... 2017-05-04

Good article. Thanks.

[WildBill]

I'll say it again the I-FUND will outperform the US domestic funds over the next 3-5 years. Look at the history of the EFA fund and it is clear as day we are in cyclical upswing for a few reasons the main one is the strength of the US dollar over the past 3 years has beaten this fund up. You can get into the macro and the micro and I'm sure make a case to be bullish or bearish but at the end of the day these economies are turning around and the strength of the dollar relative to other currencies is coming down and will continue to go down as interest rates rise domestically.

You can look at the runoff, try and figure out what's going on in EU, try to stay up to date on every other country outside of our own but at the end of the day there simply isn't enough time in a day to keep up with domestic news much less piecing together news from the outside and figuring out foreign policy, economies and outside forces impacting those markets.

Best thing to do is have a CLEAR exit and entry strategy. I don't think the I-fund explosion recently is some anomaly we all have to wrap out heads around, it is a tremendous fund and we have simply turned our nose to it because of how well our US based funds have done since financial crisis.

We naturally think our markets are superior (because well history tells us they are for one but also because the returns doesn't lie), but its time to rethink that as we continue down the path of the ageless US bull market that continues to set records and return beyond even the most bullish analysis.

Averages the last 7 years
C-Fund 15.37%/annually
S-Fund 17.47%/annually
I-Fund 8.7%/annually

You don't need me to tell you the I-Fund is a GREAT fund but we have simply put our guard up because of the tangible results above! And we simply don't trust emerging markets to deliver growth and sustainability quite like the US. Im here to tell you if your sitting 50/50 in C/S and expecting those high teen results the next 3-5 years your in for a HUGE letdown. I only see the I-Fund with the ability to deliver what you seek in return consistently. Now if your happy in that 3-7% and you don't mind some volatility then C/S if for you, but at that point why not take the headache/stress out of it and park money is securities fund (G) and wait for better buying opportunity. The C/S fund better days are behind it, IMO.

I think we are just getting started with the I-Fund!

I think you're right. Another good day.

[BlueLives]

I thought the same thing with Trump and all the pundits were saying the market would dive with a Trump victory. I anticipated he would win and the market would freak, so I sold off the day before. Overnight the market dove south around 800 points and I looked like a genius. When the sun rose the next day all that had been erased and the market was up. A few days later I had missed the a big portion of the Trump bounce.

Me too.

[MtnBiker]

Checkout this timely news from MarketWatch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europe ... 2017-05-04

Thanks, good read.

[BandidosMC]

We shall see. I think with EU increasing QE and US unwinding...I Fund may have better outlook/growth than US markets. If LePen pulls off an upset, there may be a buying opportunity but then you also have to consider the strength of the dollar.

In my unprofessional opinion it seems the direction of the dollar is the single biggest reason this fund moves up or down. Don't have charts to back that statement up but it seems there are days when it looks like it is up for the day and turns out negative and vice versa. Maybe there should be a chart on this site for dollar strength/weakness and the direction it looks like it is heading. My 2 cents worth.

Yep, confusing as heck.

[mjedlin66]

Only 0.55% today.

[crondanet5]

You ready to sell your motor home?

[Dela444]

As I recall, the I fund was struggling a tad holding previous gains just before the first election and bounced pretty nicely thinking Le Pen couldn't win in the run off. Been there, seen that logic blown away. Today (5/4) the I fund is doing well in early market and some attribute that to the probability Le Pen will lose. (Deja Vu anyone?)

So...

Given the I fund gains this year, would it be a good tactical move to bail out of I?

As I see it, the I fund will take a major hit if Le Pen wins and if she loses the current gains aren't really shabby so holding them might be just as good of a reason to move on.

Why are so many people worried about LEPEN? She seems like a female Trump. She'll get France out of the EU, therefore reducing risk, and making the I fund climb. Anybody agree?