Fund Strength Strategy

[Tomanyiron]

This strategy is based on an exponential moving averages type strength index. Each fund’s daily values are calculated at the end of each day with the four TSP fund’s performances. The values have no other meaning except for their relationship with each other. They will indicate the fund with the highest price strength. The strategy follows that fund until another fund becomes the leader. By using smoothing effects incorporated within the calculations it is a “Stay Calm” system. That means staying in and riding the up-trends to capture all profits. And staying out in the down-trends, with no attempts at dip buying. At market tops there will often be some drawdown before an exit signal. And it will never get you in the fund at the very bottom of a new up-trend. It uses none of the overbought or oversold ideas. It will stay with a fund as long as it’s outperforming the others.
Current Strength Strategy Says Ideal I Fund

[evilanne]

Interesting

[blackops]

It's very attractive right now. But at some point it will probably take a significant correction.

[skiehawk11]

That's relative strength/absolute momentum. I've been using a similar strategy for years. I take the excess returns of each fund over 12 months and whichever is higher and positive is what I'll invest in. If not, I go or remain in the G Fund.

[Tomanyiron]

That's relative strength/absolute momentum. I've been using a similar strategy for years. I take the excess returns of each fund over 12 months and whichever is higher and positive is what I'll invest in. If not, I go or remain in the G Fund.

Your allocation is 100% G, and been that way since first of Feb. Can you explain?

[skiehawk11]

I don't utilize the Fantasy game here for tracking my real account. And I also use my own program to track different strategies I am interested in seeing the results of due to the fact that I can automate the buy and sell signals.

[Tomanyiron]

OK, well thanks for the acknowledgement that the system has merits.

[crondanet5]

I think it's great and should be made into a daily chart on this web site.

[Tomanyiron]

May 8- 2017 update
The C fund Complemented itself, the I fund is still In the game, S fund got Shavedand the F fund Fainted.

[Tomanyiron]

Update EOD 5/9/17
Looks transitional.

[crondanet5]

I Fund pattern appears to be one up, two down. The challenge is sticking with the Fund you determined to be best when it moves lower. Let's see how the I Fund looks after tonight's update.

[Tomanyiron]

I’ll try to run the numbers and post an update mid-day (11:30-ish).
Does it not look like Dominos falling? First the S fund, then C, now I?
If I make an IFT it will be to G, (last for the month). However, if the I is still positive at EOD, I will start running an ongoing “Performance Report” for this system. I may do it anyway.

[crondanet5]

Waiting for your decision.

[crondanet5]

Tommie in your number crunching research take a look at the I Fund chart out one year in timeframe. Note that last May the I did dip a bit but then went higher. Would it be wiser to stay the course for a mid-month bounce rather than run to G Fund today?

[Tomanyiron]

Tommie in your number crunching research take a look at the I Fund chart out one year in timeframe. Note that last May the I did dip a bit but then went higher. Would it be wiser to stay the course for a mid-month bounce rather than run to G Fund today?

However in May 2015 the I topped-out mid month, kept falling all the way into September.
Anyway this system does not care about past years. It only cares about the past few days.
A moving strength measurement, allowing for some whip-sawing, but it will run out of patience soon if the I doesn't turn up.