Just asking...

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pak3chris
Posts: 4
Joined: Fri Apr 07, 2017 1:21 am

Just asking...

Post by pak3chris »

I’m not too TSP savvy but I want to ask; the way the I Fund has skyrocketed, any chance investors are “baiting” us into buying I Fund to then somehow get the Fund to drop? If that’s even a thing that could happen… Just a thought that I have, I’m wondering if anyone else thinks the same. I’m following the Seasonal but I have been extremely considering going 50% I Fund. I would appreciate your comments.

bad70nova
Posts: 245
Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:18 am

Re: Just asking...

Post by bad70nova »

My opinion, I fund if you are in it now good, if not stay with the seasonal as currently the I is to high to buy into. I do see a decline in the near future for it, just not sure how near that will be.

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Aitrus
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Re: Just asking...

Post by Aitrus »

pak3chris,

The number of people that would invest in the I Fund is tiny compared to the rest of the overall market. Keep in mind as well that the I Fund is a representative of overseas markets, so it's not just American investors that have a part to play. There's no conspiracy to raise the price of overseas stocks just to let them tank after Feds have bought into the I Fund via tsp.gov.

Keep in mind that one of the main purposes of the Seasonal strategy is to encourage you to ignore the short-term ups and downs of the market. It will rise and fall, politics will have influence, headlines will cause stops and starts, and talking heads in the media will make a lucrative career out of being about as accurate on the market as the weatherman is about the weather. Ignore the storm around you and focus on the long term.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

Chulke
Posts: 420
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: Just asking...

Post by Chulke »

pak3chris,


LOL...I often find myself wondering some of those same exact thoughts, that's why I follow a seasonal strategy too.

I just keep telling myself to stick to the plan!

Although, some of the recent data or at least so it seems, and maybe Aitrus can verify, seems to be pointing to a shift, however slightly, in the timeframes/ month for the seasonal timelines.

What I mean to say, is that it seems in years past on any given month you could capture the maximum gains by being in a given fund on the beginning of a month and exiting by the end of the month.

But, the recent activity with the I fund for example has me pondering if those timelines are shifting? Aitrus, do your spreadsheets show you anything?


Cheers!
Cheers!

Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04

Midway
Posts: 252
Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:09 pm

Re: Just asking...

Post by Midway »

Chulke,
do you see it moving earlier or later? I wonder if Skiehawks weekly or mjedlin66s daily would pick this up. Or maybe mjedlin66s new seasonal calculator will find it. When he gets around to finishing it :lol:

Cpayne09
Posts: 46
Joined: Mon May 05, 2014 1:51 pm

Re: Just asking...

Post by Cpayne09 »

Midway wrote:Chulke,
do you see it moving earlier or later? I wonder if Skiehawks weekly or mjedlin66s daily would pick this up. Or maybe mjedlin66s new seasonal calculator will find it. When he gets around to finishing it :lol:

Maybe if we ping him in every thread he'll get those last 20 hours knocked out :lol: .

Chulke
Posts: 420
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: Just asking...

Post by Chulke »

I might be wrong in my observations, Midway. It seems to be shifting later if you ask me....seems like seasonally you may want to move your assets later in the month to start the month.

So if your seasonal says to go into C fund to start the month...wait a week then initiate the transfer as an example.


I may be completely wrong so don't heed my advice, Its merely an observation I have noticed.


Cheers!
Cheers!

Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04

Midway
Posts: 252
Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:09 pm

Re: Just asking...

Post by Midway »

I wonder if that is the reason the daily seasonal has so many moves in the second or third week of the month. But the selection of funds doesn't quite line up with the other seasonal strategies, which puzzles me. Guess I'm getting off the thread topic.

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Aitrus
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Re: Just asking...

Post by Aitrus »

Chulke wrote:But, the recent activity with the I fund for example has me pondering if those timelines are shifting? Aitrus, do your spreadsheets show you anything?
Cheers!


When I present my stats, I like to give bookends of what has happened in the past. This puts the CAGR into perspective. "Here's the average, and here's the highest and lowest recorded returns." This means that every month has some really good as well as really bad returns for all the Funds. The CAGR tells you which way the returns tend to go for a particular month.

Example: I Fund in May
Since 1980: CAGR -0.31%, PNR 45%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.79%, PNR 45%
Last 10 years: CAGR -1.23%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR -2.71%, PNR 20%
Best years: 2009 (13.41%), 1990 (11.28%), and 1992 (6.52%)
Worst years: 2012 (-11.4%), 2010 (-11.2%), and 2989 (-5.54%)

Analysis: Wile the three highest years are a little better than the three lowest years, the CAGR shows that there are enough down years to offset any gains the good years make. This is supported by the low PNR ratios, which says that the I Fund has, at best, a 50/50 shot of being positive in May. Even if the ratio does end up being 50/50, the lows are deep enough to offset any gains made by the highs.

If you're referring to how well the I Fund has done this year, here's what I'm seeing. Including 2017, there have been six years that the I Fund was positive from Jan - Apr. These were:

1988 (15.61% by the end of April)
1991 (20.61%)
1996 (5.26%)
1998 (14.36%)
2007 (7.82%)
2017 (10.16%)

Out of these, only two had positive results in May:

1991 (0.9%)
2007 (2.54%, also 0.2% in June)

So there's precedent for the I Fund returns so far this year. It's not outside the range the Law of Averages we can expect to see, even though it is above average.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

Chulke
Posts: 420
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Re: Just asking...

Post by Chulke »

Roger that Aitrus!

I understand your analysis as it pertains to a monthly basis.

I guess to better frame what I am referring to, and again I might be way off base here, it would be a daily look inside a given month.


Cheers!
Cheers!

Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04

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Aitrus
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Re: Just asking...

Post by Aitrus »

Sorry, my data doesn't drill down to that level. All the data points are monthly, not daily or even weekly.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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mjedlin66
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Re: Just asking...

Post by mjedlin66 »

Cpayne09 wrote:Maybe if we ping him in every thread he'll get those last 20 hours knocked out :lol: .

Send beer.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

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Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

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